Zach Willmes

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Zach Willmes

Zach Willmes

@ZWillmes18

Twitter is for sports 🏈 🏀 ⚾️ ⛳️

Katılım Nisan 2012
262 Takip Edilen114 Takipçiler
Ben Klayer
Ben Klayer@the_satellite23·
If Trey Hendrickson comes back to the Bengals hat-in-hand, after testing the market, do you think we should sign him?
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Bron’s Best
Bron’s Best@LBJsBest·
This vid of LeBron leading the 2016 Cavs 3-1 comeback still gives me chills 🔥👑 (vid credit: @bronhistory)
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Zach Willmes
Zach Willmes@ZWillmes18·
@LanceMcAlister So much negativity. You act like the reds are paying him the $20M. Is he worth the league minimum? Absolutely. He’d be a great locker room guy. Could it simply be a bad year? Possibly
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Faux Peyton Manning
Faux Peyton Manning@FeuxManning·
Was that the worst NFL season of all time? Why not?
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Zach Willmes
Zach Willmes@ZWillmes18·
@the_satellite23 I tend to agree with you, but Walker was very impressive. There are some average joes who can kick footballs, but literally no person can rush for 10 yards in an NFL game, let alone 161 all purpose yards. Totally different skills. Kicker wouldn’t have an opportunity without that
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Ben Klayer
Ben Klayer@the_satellite23·
Let me get this straight. A player who directly scored more than half of the team's points and broke multiple Super Bowl records wasn't awarded the MVP. But a player who scored 0 points was. Make it make sense.
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Drew Garrison
Drew Garrison@DrewGarrison·
A bunch of dudes that would elevate the Bengals lost their jobs and Zac is just chilling somewhere telling stories about 2021.
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Zach Willmes
Zach Willmes@ZWillmes18·
@the_satellite23 Yes and no. I’ve won almost $1,100 on FanDuel but I’m ultra responsible with betting, which most people are not. Only bet $10 per and bet on leagues/teams/players I am familiar with
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Ben Klayer
Ben Klayer@the_satellite23·
All gambling loses you money in the long run. It is all designed for the house to have an edge. Everything. Sports betting. Slots. Blackjack. Table games. You cannot win by gambling. Stop gambling.
Trung Phan@TrungTPhan

The Economist has a great piece on strategy sportsbetting apps use to throttle smart bettors: ▫️Skilled players are “sharps” and given “stake restrictions” if they play too well (bets are capped). ▫️Rest of players called “Square”. ▫️In 2025, 4.3% of active UK accounts had a “stake factor” below the maximum bet allowance of 100%. ▫️Sportsbook will take bets with a profit margin as low as 4.5%. ▫️If they are able to do good “player-profiling” and keep the “sharps” from playing, the profit margin can reach 10-20%. ▫️As important as keeping out “sharps” is hooking “whales”, the deep-pocketed players that are willing to keep playing (and losing) large sums. ▫️Some “whales” are actually “sharps” in disguise, though. They’ll lose a bunch of bets to lull the sportsbook then put down a massive bet when they have an edge. ▫️While there is a risk of a “whale” being a “sharp”, the value of a real “whale” is so high that sportsbook will take the risk ▫️“In March 2024 PointsBet, raised its share of online sports-gambling revenue in New Jersey from 11% to 24% after wooing a single cash-spouting customer away from DraftKings.” (I can confirm that this wasn’t me). ▫️How sportsbook profile players: > Playing on Mobile is a good sign (where majority of people play) > Playing on PCs is a bad sign (it’s easier to compare odds and run models) > E-wallets are a red flag (sportsbooks prefer debit direct deposit that can attach a player to a single account; e-wallet is more anonymized and players can move cash between sportsbook more quickly to shop for the best odds) > Women bettors are a red flag (most bettors are men and “sharps” often use women to place bets) ▫️First wagers are a major tells (typical bettors go after top leagues — NFL, NBA, EPL — and do so near the start of the game). ▫️Popular bets for “squares”: who will win, scoring margins and how star player will perform (also, they love multi-leg parlays). ▫️“Sharps” go after less popular leagues and place bets as soon as odds are published, when they are most mispriced. They also go after less popular bets such as “pts in Q3” or stats from a random player (“Sharps” rarely do parlays and don’t withdrawal winnings often). ▫️One gambling consultant tells The Economist that “By the time a customer places his first bet, [sportsbooks] are 80-90% certain they know the lifetime value of the account.” ▫️”Sportsbooks look at a player’s ‘closing-line value’ — a measure that compares the odds at which he bets with those available right before a match begins. If it is consistently ahead of the market over his first ten wagers, he is highly likely to beat the book in the long run.” ▫️Sportsbook mathematically monitor players and creates a new risk score every 6-8 hours (risk score = estimate of probability that customers will wind up unprofitable). ▫️E-wallet users, women and bets over $100 are flagged. These suspicious bettors are given 30% of maximum bet (and proven sharps only allowed 1%). ▫️High-skilled players will often get a “beard” to bet on their behalf. Most sportsbooks ban this practice but it is widespread. ▫️Safest “beards” are close friends and relatives because you can mostly rely on them to pay out any winnings. The “beards” try to look like degens (playing at 3am, bet non-stop and doing ridiculous parlays) before placing a winning bet. ▫️The most effective strategy for “sharps” is “whale-flipping”. Find a losing gambler, then ask to put a (likely) large winning bet amongst their pool of guaranteed losers. ▫️Once “sharps” max out the people they can use as “beards”, they tap professional networks called “movers”. These “movers” employ a bunch of “mules” who can put down bets on the behalf of the network. Low-end movers charge 10-20% while high-end movers charge 50% of winnings. *** Lots other great details here: economist.com/christmas-spec…

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LanceMcAlister
LanceMcAlister@LanceMcAlister·
Imaging thinking you are so smart that you can scout/evaluate players with about one third of the people the average NFL scouts department has. That's rich.
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Riggs
Riggs@RiggsBarstool·
Final daily 9 of the year. This one’s personal. Need to run the table. Happy New Year everyone. Thanks for following along. Grab a @trulyseltzer, have fun & be safe out there tonight 🙏👊
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Zach Willmes
Zach Willmes@ZWillmes18·
@BeatinTheBookie You don’t think the first team left out will still complain? That 25th team surely won’t be happy…
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John
John@iam_johnw·
This is literally the definition of a touchback lmao can’t Just not call it because it’s Ohio state
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Mark Thomas
Mark Thomas@techsportsmark·
@johnewing For all those saying "just don't fumble the ball", what happens when the offense fumbles the ball out of bounds? Do the rules say, "Sorry, you fumbled the ball, now the defense automatically gets possession"? Why no, in fact the rules say the offense gets to retain possession.
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Ohio’s Tate
Ohio’s Tate@OhioTate·
Dave Portnoy walking into an Ohio High School Playoff Football game wearing an Elder sweatshirt and a St. X hat
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Zach Willmes
Zach Willmes@ZWillmes18·
@CincyPlzWin What can burrow do that Flacco hasn’t done? The defense will still be the defense
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Costa
Costa@CincyPlzWin·
But guys, hear me out… What if… Burrow runs the table?
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Zach Willmes
Zach Willmes@ZWillmes18·
@Bengals So tired of this guy and his stupid excuses. He need to find leaders? Isn’t he the biggest leader of them all?
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Zach Willmes
Zach Willmes@ZWillmes18·
@bobwatkins63 @LanceMcAlister Is this supposed to be a win for the city? Do you think the Dodgers play baseball “to get attention”? I bet LA residents are so proud…
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Bob Watkins
Bob Watkins@bobwatkins63·
@LanceMcAlister Say what you want about anybody in the organization and how this season is turned out, but at the end of the day we are entertained by this team. We're all following some with hope some with gloom but we're all paying attention.
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BeatinTheBookie.com®️
BeatinTheBookie.com®️@BeatinTheBookie·
Bengals should seriously consider trading for Winston if Burrow is out 3+ months. Jake Browning is an ok backup, but nowhere near a starter. Winston to Chase would be electric.
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