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Election Effect?
2017; 1 year after election: $SPY up 40%
2018; 2 years after election: $SPY Down 11%
2021; 1 year after election: $SPY up 50%
2022; 2 years after election: $SPY Down 30%
2025; 1 year after election: $SPY up 23%
2026; ?
There are 2 differences in 2025 though!
1. $SPY only went up 23% so far compared to 40% and 50% in 2017 and 2021.
2. We already had a 20% drop in $SPY in April 2025.
Of course, there are multiple reasons for all these moves in the past two elections, such as inflation, Covid19, interest rates, and many other factors, but if this time something similar happens, how low will SPY go in 2026? Maybe not that low since we already had a drop in April 2025 and the gain has only been around 23% so far.
Anyways, it seems like 2026 dop in stocks seems unavoidable and the only question is how low and how long it will be.
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