@micsolana The key question is if you get to discuss your choice with your loved ones beforehand. If not and you have to vote immediately, blue could make sense if you think your loved ones might have the same wrong instinct
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ZeroHedge Notes
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ZeroHedge Notes
@ZeroHedgeNotes
Summarized articles from @zerohedge | Macro Strategy
Katılım Ekim 2022
119 Takip Edilen2.1K Takipçiler
fwiw, and this is embarrassing but I'm going to admit it, my instinct was blue, and I pressed blue. then I thought about it for a moment and the answer was clearly red. I can't make a rational case for blue, but understand where blues are coming from (they are wrong).
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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TSA STAFFING CRISIS AS SHUTDOWN DRAGS 🚨
- 1,000+ TSA officers quit since Feb 14, widening gaps.
- Payroll ~ $1.6B every two weeks; funds may dry up by May.
Bottom line: Funding gaps raise wait times and travel disruption.
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DOJ INDICTS MORENS FOR FOIA-EVASION IN COVID RECORDS ⚖️
- Personal Gmail used to hide messages and delete records
- Back-channel emails raise criminal risk and oversight changes
Bottom line: Hiding records can become criminal risk and affect public oversight.
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VIOLENCE TOLERANCE RISES IN US POLARIZATION ⚠️
- 10% say violence sometimes warranted; 5% say often.
- 49% have little/no confidence in the press; 18% have great confidence.
Bottom line: Rising violence tolerance and media distrust threaten democracy.
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BOJ HOLDS RATES IN RARE 6-3 SPLIT; HAWKISH OUTLOOK 💹
- 6-3 vote shows hawk/dove split; 3 dissenters want 1%
- Inflation forecast to 2.8% this year signals stagflation risk.
Bottom line: June hike likely as inflation rises and growth slows.
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IRAN PUSHES REVISED DEAL AS HORMUZ BLOCKADE LOOMS 🛢️
- TEHRAN DRAFTS REVISED WAR-END PLAN AROUND BLOCKADE LIFT.
Bottom line: Tehran uses blockade leverage to win concessions; oil stays elevated.
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HORMUZ CAN REOPEN WITHOUT FULL MINE CLEARING 🚢
- Partial clearance could reopen transit.
- Full demining could take 6 months.
Bottom line: Partial reopening lowers near-term risk, but Iran's storage limits keep supply risk.
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US-IRAN TALKS STALL; IRAN LINKS HORMUZ OPENING TO CEASEFIRE EXTENSION 🔒
- Iran links Hormuz reopening to ceasefire extension.
- Europe faces energy hit; oil near $109/bbl.
Bottom line: Stalled talks push Europe toward higher energy costs as Hormuz stays closed.
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HITS 2026 HIGH; LABOR MOOD UP 📈
- APRIL CONFIDENCE 92.8, HIGHEST 2026; PRESENT 123.8
- 50% EXPECT RATES HIGHER NEXT 12 MO
Bottom line: Confidence up, but half expect higher rates, signaling restraint.
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MINNEAPOLIS FRAUD RAIDS TARGET SOMALI-LINKED BUSINESSES; 22 WARRANTS 🔎
- 22 warrants at 20+ sites; Somali-linked firms.
- $250M fraud; 1,750 subpoenas; 130 warrants.
Bottom line: federal probes aim to recover funds and tighten oversight.
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OIL RISES AS US-IRAN TUSSLE HITS HORMUZ; IRAN CLAIMS STATE OF COLLAPSE 🚢
- Oil tops $110/bbl as Hormuz risk stays high.
- Iran says time favors three Ms—munitions, markets, midterms.
Bottom line: Iran uses timing to pressure US over Hormuz blockade.
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TUAPSE REFINERY STRUCK THIRD TIME THIS MONTH 🔥
- Tuapse refinery hit again; large fire prompts evacuations near Krasnodar.
- Drones dodge radar; defense gaps at export hub handling 12 million t.
Bottom line: Repeated strikes disrupt fuel and expose defense gaps.
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OPENAI MISSES TARGETS, CFO FEARS $1.5T COMMITMENTS AT RISK 💸
- CFO warns funding for compute may fail if revenue stalls; $1.5T at stake.
- Board tightens controls as demand slows.
Bottom line: Revenue slowdown risks trimming OpenAI's $1.5T compute plan.
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US HOME PRICES DIP IN FEB, FIRST SINCE JUNE 2025 🏠
- feb mom -0.05% in 20-city index; yoy +0.9%, weakest since july
- fed rate lag keeps path lower; prices unlikely rebound soon
Bottom line: feb dip, fed lag, means affordability stays tight and prices drift lower.
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TRUMP, MELANIA DEMAND KIMMEL FIRED OVER WIDOW JOKE 🔥
- Trump, Melania press ABC/Disney to fire Kimmel over widow joke.
- 1 Secret Service agent wounded; White House reviews security.
Bottom line: Public pressure on Kimmel meets risk, prompting safety reviews.
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IRAN SAYS IT CAN OUTLAST US BASED ON MUNITIONS, MARKETS, MIDTERMS 🛢️
- Oil tops $110/bbl as Trump resists lift of blockade.
Bottom line: Iran uses munitions, markets, and midterms to pressure the US, keeping Hormuz blockade and oil volatility.
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UAE LEAVES OPEC, EXIT EFFECTIVE MAY 1 🛢️
- UAE exits OPEC; output ~4.05 mbpd, eyeing 5 by 2027.
- Raises questions on OPEC cohesion and price defense.
Bottom line: UAE exit weakens OPEC cohesion and raises price-risk uncertainty.
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AI SPENDING DOUBTS HURT OPENAI ECOSYSTEM; OIL SHOCK RAISES INFLATION RISK 💹
- OpenAI misses revenue/user targets; WSJ cites $1.5T commitments at risk.
Bottom line: OpenAI spending doubts curb AI infra growth; oil shocks keep inflation and rate bets in play.
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DOLLAR NOT DYING, FLOWS STILL HOME 💹
- Foreign buyers net $101B in long-term US securities in Feb; 5-mo ~$488B.
- China custody shift; Belgium/Luxembourg holdings lift; Treasuries $9.4T.
Bottom line: Dollar stays funded by flows, not a collapse.
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FIRST LNG TANKER CROSSES HORMUZ; FIRST CRUDE TANKER ATTEMPTS EXIT 🚢
- Mubaraz LNG exits Hormuz; loaded Mar at Das Island; transponder off Mar 31.
- Idemitsu Maru exits Abu Dhabi; first crude to exit since war began.
Bottom line: Exits hint at Hormuz reopening.
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