Ketlh Ftlz-GareIb
47 posts


Buy, sell or hold $UNH?
UnitedHealth Group reported this morning, and the numbers were decent.
• Adjusted EPS came in at $6.38 vs. $4.90 expected — a big beat
• Revenue hit $112.03 billion vs. $110.85 billion expected
• Medical benefit ratio: 86.7% vs. 88.5% expected — the better this number, the more profitable the insurer
• Full-year earnings outlook raised to $19.50–$20 per share, up from more than $18.25
Two quarters in a row now the company has put up strong numbers.
I warned you to steer clear of UNH back in April 2025 for several reasons including a CEO bailing for "personal reasons," the first earnings miss since 2008, the Medicare Advantage margin squeeze, and the federal billing fraud investigation.
All of it played out exactly as advertised - shares dropped hard in the aftermath.
Now, two good quarters back-to-back is real progress, but even UnitedHealth calls this a 'multi-year journey,' not a finished turnaround. Shares are up ~74% from a $255.97 low earlier this year.
Time for a rethink? 🤔
Perhaps but here’s what I actually “think”…
Medical costs are still 'elevated over historical levels' by their own admission. Membership keeps shrinking too, with roughly 500,000 ACA exchange members and 1.1 million Medicare Advantage members expected to walk this year.
Then there's the DOJ investigation into Medicare billing which is still open. UnitedHealth says it remains 'supportive' of the probe, which strikes me as code speak for “hey, we’re putting on a bright smile for appearances.”
Trade idea: Putskies, short, or simply avoid until the stock can sustain $500 a share for a few quarters and earnings a few quarters more still. Better yet, just focus on buying the best and ignoring the rest. I think there are plenty of other companies out there with what I believe to be clearer, bigger profit potential and dramatically less baggage.
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