Thorne&Advisor
50 posts


A Warsh Fed Means the Old Playbook Is Dead.
The 2 Year UST is no longer the Fed’s North Star.
A Warsh Fed means the Fed is done worshiping stale Keynesian models and done pretending the 2-year Treasury runs monetary policy. It means judgment is back, price stability comes first, and the central bank will think for itself instead of outsourcing decisions to Wall Street’s latest consensus.
Wall St consensus is still using the old playbook and anchored off the 2 year UST. As I keep saying Wall St, is wrong on Warsh and views him as a Powell/Bernanke clone.

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Canada, the US and the New Logic of Reciprocity
“Geography has made us neighbours. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies.”
That line from John F. Kennedy still captures the essential truth of the Canada-US relationship. Today, it is also a reminder that everyone in Canada should take a breath.
Mark Carney’s remarks at the New York Economic Club point to a changing reality: Canada can still thrive in an “America First” era, but only by adapting to a more transactional framework. The world has changed, and so has trade.
CUSMA is increasingly outdated, not because integration has failed, but because economic policy is now shaped by security, resilience and reciprocity as much as by efficiency.
Canada is not negotiating from weakness. It is endowed with natural resources the world wants, from energy to critical minerals, and that gives it leverage as well as responsibility. Yes, in essence Canada needs the United States.
But the relationship is not one-sided: the US also benefits materially from Canada’s resource wealth, which supports North American industry, energy security and long-term growth. That mutual dependence should be recognized as the basis for reciprocity. And the foundation of a new agreement.
President Trump’s tariff threats should be taken seriously, but not read as a prelude to rupture. Canada sits beside the world’s most dynamic large economy, and privileged access to that market will increasingly come with sharper expectations around balance, strategic alignment and measurable benefit on both sides.
Carney appears to understand this. His message suggests adaptation rather than confrontation: accept the new terms of engagement, preserve access, and modernize the agreement accordingly.
The likely outcome is a revised, more balanced North American framework.
Both Trump and Carney are smart pragmatic operators, and neither has an incentive to destabilize trade for its own sake. A modernized deal that better reflects reciprocity, security priorities and Canada’s resource endowment is not just possible. It is likely.
IMHO A deal will get done.
Canada needs to take a deep breath, and realize the world has changed.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47
"The Canada tariffs, are those a response to the wildfires?" @POTUS: "No. That's separate... It's only a response to the way they have treated our farmers and our people. Canada's been very, very tough on us over the years... and no other president's done anything about it."
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Missing your voice more than words can say, but late-night calls and silly memes keep our days bright, miles apart but never out of mind #LongDistanceLove,

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