The Housing Guy

Big numbers out for $EVER and a solid pop. P&C insurance is just so strong right now. Amazing for a 356 person team to be trending over $600k+ per employee in VMD. Interested to hear what they have to say but more proof $GOOG $GOOGL is just fine for the paid players.

This saga between $UWMC and $TWO has been heated. Seems like board keeping an eye out for retail who won’t look to elect for cash is an interesting call out. Melting ice cube comments featured in this thread did not help either it looks like. twoinv.com/news-events/pr…

The bidding war continues for $TWO between $UWMC and CCM...Wow Seems good for $PFSI, $ONIT, $RKT, $RITM, $NLY, $LDI and any other major MSR holders. investors.uwm.com/news/financial…

Strong response from $UWMC on $TWO: “The actions by TWO’s management and board do not reflect the best interests of their shareholders. The same team that had to settle a $375 million lawsuit this past summer is at it again. TWO’s decision appears to be driven more by ego, than by sound judgment. The deal for us was a strategy to acquire their servicing book, not their operations, as ultimately there are no operational efficiencies to gain — UWMs operations are best in class. Unlike TWO’s business, which is effectively a melting ice cube, we are in growth mode and will continue to be the market leader for the wholesale channel in support of our broker clients and team members.” investors.uwm.com/news-and-event…

Thought it was a classic Warren response back from when there was more questions. Always like how Warren informed folks it was the states choices and Berkshire would manage accordingly with things like Klamath River. More questions to Greg and Ajit next time will get them to do both, provide the usual talking points as well as highlight some of the positive developments too. They should show off the stamina and knowledge base like Warren and Charlie used to. cnbc.com/amp/2007/05/04…

Hey @BeckyQuick : The only question that Greg Abel swung and missed was from the Girl in High School and his response to protecting the Environment. This could have been one of his best answers based on Berkshire Energy being the leader in renewables but he made it “Feel” like Berkshire was one of the biggest polluters. Her reality is that she lives near a Coal fired generation station. Zooming out, I didn’t realize Berkshire Hathaway leads the Nation in renewables. Warren likely would have found a folksy way to make her feel important with her concerns and Greg seemed bothered by it. Based on this, it was a missed opportunity to shine. All other questions, I feel he did great. This was a missed opportunity. Source: Berkshire Hathaway Energy Deck for end of 2025.

How you calculating 79%? Scores are the vast majority of income and mortgage is now 63% of scores? Mortgage lenders don’t have any alternative yet in the secondary market so they had to just eat the price doubling in January and try to pass some onto consumers. Confused what folks thought would happen here. The software business standing alone would likely get crushed like the rest of the sector. Margins no where close to as high as scores. Question is does vantage or other score/credit data adoption kill future cash flows. They will continue to print amazing numbers all of 2026 and likely into 2027. Secondary Market moves slow but it does move eventually. I would not want to own 100% of $FICO right now at this valuation. Seems hard to get your money back when they found the ceiling on price.

$FICO killed it in Q2'26. The most regulatorily-scrutinised period in FICO’s history since the 2020 DOJ Antitrust civil investigative demand was simultaneously its strongest absolute-and-growth quarter on record. Regulatory pressure has not translated into measurable operating damage through fiscal Q2'26. Management executed the company's largest single quarter share repurchase in the company's history and demonstrated the rare ability to act decisively and opportunistically to repurchase shares at a deep discount and not just at ATHs like most management teams. FICO benefited from a mix of higher volume mortgage originations, partly driven by a temporary decline in rates, as well as the new $10 per score pricing. Higher volume at the new pricing demonstrated low elasticity of demand and pricing power. Management raised full year guidance and explicitly stated that they do not expect any market share loss from VantageScore. Management's views on market share loss are corroborated by Equifax and Experian FY26 guidance, which assumes no conversion from FICO to VantageScore. This is despite (a) the bureaus' economic incentive to drive conversion which unlocks incremental margin for them on score sales; (b) price cuts to VantageScore from $4 to $1; and (c) claimed cost savings of ~$1B for consumers and originators from converting to VantageScore. The absence of any meaningful Vantage volume after aggressive bureau-level Vantage discounting is the strongest single piece of evidence that FICO’s pricing power is structurally protected by switching costs rather than by any current pricing advantage. The FICO platform business segment is compounding largely independently of the regulatory cycle that is driving the equity drawdown. I estimate that approximately 79% of FICO's operating income is not at risk from the GSE-mandate regulatory scrutiny. This base comprises auto and card B2B scoring, B2C myFICO and indirect channel revenue, non-conforming and non-GSE mortgage scoring, and the entire Software segment (Platform plus non-platform). It is not subject to the GSE mandate and not visibly affected by current regulatory scrutiny.

@exec_sum Household debt report drops next week too for Q1. Expect more of these headlines when that hits too

@exec_sum So is this a reference to the WSJ article with this graph? Question is where it levels out? Also $ASPS certainly a good place to look as well as $PFSI Tuesday. wsj.com/economy/housin…

BREAKING: US foreclosure filings hit the highest since 2020

Went with @Quartr_App instead. Anyone else think Ajit stole the show? Fun hearing from other managers but just Greg and Ajit taking more questions next year would be great. Turns out the old formula keeps working and we don’t need new coke $BRK.A $BRK.B. Other managers can just do more features and interviews during the rest of the event like usual. Prelims vs main event if you will.

Not sure who puts all the meetings on Spotify but thank you. Just waiting for today’s meeting to drop to catch it here in 2x. Interested to listen to the first year of Greg running the show. $BRK.A $BRK.B open.spotify.com/show/4bQf9WvU2…

This reads like mortgage folks are not rational actors. You’re talking about $200 a loan in scores cost in Q1 from $FICO for folks hopefully making 20-30 bps on a 400k transaction according to MBA. If investors pay for vantage lenders will go to what’s cheaper. 5 bps sounds small per deal until you remember that could be more like 20-25% of the profit today for lenders after years of taking on losses post boom. We need to see what the secondary market thinks. Once they can price other scores they will take them just like auto and credit cards. Not sure why mortgage would be different? Should get easier not harder. This is classic regulatory capture hopefully being broken up.

RBC expects minimal market share losses for $FICO "FICO maintains its foundational position in mortgage lending because credit scores serve multiple critical functions: determining product placement (conventional, FHA, VA, or jumbo loans), establishing interest rates, and setting mortgage insurance premiums and down payment requirements. Lenders typically pull FICO Score first in their decisioning process, as the vast majority of loan outcomes either require or prefer FICO scores. The non-conforming market in particular continues to demand the most predictive score available. As a result, we believe VS adoption appears likely to remain incremental and specific to certain lending scenarios rather than becoming a wholesale replacement"

@NegConv3xity Yeah but we are what feels like a few years in and limited action/certainty. If we get a refi boom and they don’t do it that will be telling. The other companies need to get stronger to stand on their own. That likely pushes it over the edge.

@_Housing_Guy_ yeah I mean they're publicly saying they intend to eventually

When the time is right, $RITM has to let NewRez IPO or spin them off right? They hinted today that $PFSI getting hit last quarter was a reason not to but if $RKT rises fast they seem to be in a great spot to do so. Consumer Direct nearly doubling with loans per FTE rising nicely. Wholesale moving up along with subservicing. Nierenberg sounds frustrated and not sure what else gets them moving?

Don't disagree but lots of talk that insurance and other financial product will get disrupted as rates/fees become more transparent or even embedded into LLMs. If it is really easy to shop and bind rates, it becomes a race to the bottom and marketing dollars get cut. They did a good job addressing this on their Q4 call below. The other concern I hear is that agents can still go do my price shopping for me. That involves at least today a higher level of sophistication than most individual consumers have and potentially even some costs. Finally, and likely most importantly for them, if paid search takes a big hit. Based on 4 quarters of accelerating YOY growth prints from Google that appears to be a bit overblown.

@_Housing_Guy_ Why would AI kill it at all? It’s a two-sided market with network effects. Serious question.

Did people really hate the $MAX print that much? Yeah, they missed, and, dropping reporting transaction value is a little sketchy given open marketplace capture rates have been dropping since 2024 and private was uglier. But still growing and valuation is extremely reasonable.

$TREE insurance really popping too. Home kind of lagging despite a decent refi quarter is a bit surprising. Maybe they are just focusing on P&C more right now.

P&C advertising just continues a nice climb up 31% YOY for $MAX . Excited to see what $EVER, $QNST, $TREE and $NRDS all post. Space is really competitive but someone should start to pull away. Who do folks like most? Leaving someone off the list?

@Larryjamieson_ Not sure people realize how unpopular the entire credit cartel is for most consumers. $FICO is like $LYV level popular with voters. Folks don’t like high ticket prices or why their scores move so much, let alone paying for their own data. breitbart.com/politics/2026/…

People like to dunk on $FICO for their “outrageous” price hikes preceding the current round of regulatory chaos. This is the 15 IQ interpretation of events. Their mistake was in not being in DC and not lobbying. Likewise, they should have renamed the score to the TrumpScore.

So we going to stop with $GOOG $GOOGL search is dead thing yet as they post 19% YOY gains? Plenty of struggling organic companies out there from AI overviews and parasite SEO crackdown but paid still seems to be chugging along just fine

Lansing is amazing at just saying things and everyone taking his word for it around the new pricing model being more or less a wash for $FICO. Pretty clear $TRU indicated pricing is going up for Vantage shortly too. 1,462,000 units last quarter would be $95 million at $65 and then an extra $30 million from pulls going from $10 to $1 gets you $125,000,000 vs. the $300,000,000 they posted on mortgage for the quarter. What am i missing? Vantage and FICO are both going to run back towards $5 and fast just depends on if regulators can stop it.

What's the main point of debate on $FICO? Share loss to VS4.0. Was that resolved by the print last night? No. Fundamentals reflect the rear-view mirror. The fade from the after-market was entirely predictable. The way the stock works is once VS4.0 is implemented & they do NOT lose share and post results like this. Otherwise until then, every print is a fade. And tape bombs from Pulte et al will continue.

Interest intraday trading activity in $FICO's stock - up around 12% at open, basically flat at one point, now +3%. The market The market seems to be unsure what to make of the results. If $FICO cannot make significantly new highs based on yesterday's results (which were undeniably impressive), I'd imagine there's even more downside in the coming weeks.

To 12X revenue in 4 years in a declining mortgage market is just wild. Not surprised folks are confused and a worried about backlash especially with Vantage coming. I am seeing $205 a unit in Q1 for $FICO if MBA is right about 1,462,000 units. I am struggling to understand how success based fees will be this good. No way $1 pulls are here for long if they want to make up that gap. Graph almost looks fake. Anyone have a better units by quarter data source they like for mortgage?