Jace Hart
253 posts


I have made MANY mistakes in my investing journey
Invested in some solar and wind energy stocks in my 20s that all lost money
Invested in international index fund at a time when they severely underperformed S&P 500 for a decade
Sold a few stocks too early in my journey
Invested in too many dividend stocks in my 20s because I was fascinated by dividends
And yet…
Because of our good income, great saving habits and obsessively regular investing habits…
We became multi millionaires in our mid/late 30s
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Nobody knows if we bottomed, all you can do is act with the context and information provided by the market.
And the most recent context has been:
- Largest buy volume day (Tuesday) in the S&P 500 since Trump told us to buy stocks in April 2025
- Reclaim of the 10 day and 50 week moving average in the Nasdaq
- Nasdaq reversing a 2% gap down to close green after Trump’s press conference
- Many stocks continuing to act well
- Groups and themes leading
- Bad news getting absorbed
- Horrible sentiment
Time will tell, but this is reality as of the last few days.
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“It’s a bear market rally”
Nobody knows in real time what it is.
All you can do is look for signs of a potential bottom.
Few things to look for:
- Big volume near lows
- Seller exhaustion (low volume on red days)
- Key moving average reclaims (10/20/50/200)
- Good news = good news
- Bad news = good news
- Leaders leading
- VIX deflation
- Price character change (bounces continue to get bid vs. getting sold)
- Angry bearish folks (denial)
- STRONG OPENS
- STRONG CLOSES
Bottom, bear market rally, whatever. You just need to follow what price is saying, everything else falls into place.
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Systematic selling of US equities may be running out of steam:
Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), the algorithm-driven funds that buy and sell based on price trends, have sold -$85 billion in US equities over the last 30 trading sessions.
This marks the largest 30-day sale since the 2020 pandemic, when CTAs sold -$105 billion.
By comparison, the March-April 2025 correction saw -$80 billion in sales.
As a result, CTAs are now short -$37 billion in US equities, the 3rd-highest amount since 2019, behind the April 2025 low and November 2023.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs estimates that CTAs are set to buy in every market scenario over the next month.
The market is setting up for a relief rally.

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The news is bad, the charts are bad, sentiment is bad, everything is bad.
Nobody knows when we’ll bottom but what we do know is that the market won’t wait for positive headlines, great sentiment, and joyful news flow to bottom.
Whether it’s 2018, 2020, 2022, or 2025, the notable “recent” market pullbacks didn’t wait for the “all clear” before resuming higher.
2018: Trade war tensions still high.
2020: COVID still relatively unknown.
2022: Inflation/rates still climbing, recession fears.
2025: U.S. and China tension still at highs, despite the tariff pause.
Market will bottom before sentiment improves.
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