Martin Kelly

WARNING 🚨 IRGC issued evacuation orders for four energy facilities in neighbouring Gulf states in response to airstirkes against Iran's South Pars Gas Field earlier today. The facilities under evacuation orders are: Samref Refinery (#SaudiArabia) Al-Hasan Gas Field (#UAE) #Jubail Petrochemical Complex (Saudi Arabia) Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex and Mesaieed Holding Company (affiliated with @Chevron ) (#Qatar)

Local source reporting indicates that airstrikes hit the South Pars gas field and related infrastructure, with nearby oil and petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh also targeted in Bushehr province. Anticipate reciprocal action in Qatar (Ras Laffan, North Fields, Dolphin Pipeline Terminal); UAE (Das Island Facility, Habshan Complex, Fujairah), KSA (Jubail, Yanbu), Oman (Qalhat, Duqm). Residual risk remains at ALL oil terminals

@WouterW_Vreug This route is not normal. In fact, it is forbidden in many insurance policies.

@_MartinKelly_ Every tanker route is approved by Iran, Oman, insurers, class societies and owners. Hugging Larak isn’t a secret signal or a hazard warning — it’s a normal, fully monitored routing choice. No mystery here.

#Iran is permitting exit of the Gulf to select ships. But what is the rationale? At least 5 vessels have transited outbound via the #StraitofHormuz in the past 48hrs but are taking an unusual route inside Iranian Territorial Waters. All 5 vessels have transited the Larak Qeshm gap, which is not the normal route taken by ships when conducting this transit. The reason for the unusual routing remains unknown, but it seems that Iran is allowing select vessels to transit the SoH after verification which takes place during the ships’ transit inside Iran TTW. It may not be as it seems. At least 3 of the 5 vessels are carrying Iranian cargo having loaded at Bandar Khomeini, one is a sanctioned LPG vessel probably not contributing to relieve the global #oil & #gas shortages, and one is a #Pakistan government aframax tanker. So whilst ships are being ‘allowed’ to transit, it is mostly only to the benefit of Iran. Ships that have transited via these means: Karachi 9903413 Crude oil, Pakistan MDL Kamran 9189770, Bulk, Indian from Bandar Khomeini, Iran to Khor Fakan, UAE Lacon 9277565, Bulk, #Greek from Bandar Khomeini, Iran to Fujairah, UAE Anthea 9317729, Bulk, Greek from Bandar Khomeini, Iran to Colombo Sea Bird 9088536, Sanctioned LPG. AIS spoofing ongoing so history difficult to determine. Permission to exit the Gulf is likely negotiated between the governments of Iran and the governments of the shipping companies. At least India and Pakistan have secured the release of their ships, 1 Pakistan, 1 Indian, with 2 more Indian ships scheduled to leave soon. Two Greek owned ships have exited but are carrying Iranian cargo probably to East Asia. This could also be opened to China, or to companies that are shipping cargo to China or other countries not aligned with the US. The route is interesting. It could be indicative of a mined Strait and vessels are given a mine avoidance route. All available caveats go with this, no evidence seen etc, this is purely considering possibilities. On escorts: No escort has been conducted via SoH. No escort is going to be conducted under current status quo. Trump asked EU and NATO to provide escort and all refused owing to the unprecedented dangers of SoH escorting. Lots of flack given to minesweepers bugging out of the Gulf. I’d argue unwarranted. The MCM idea for SoH has been outdated for years. The plan was to sweep the SoH in a perhaps contested rather than hostile space. For a minesweeper to effectively sweep the SoH, its speed must be slow enough to survey the seabed etc and has never been tried and tested in a multi threat, multi axis theatre. MCM and its multiple escorts would be crawling through the SoH, absorbing UAV, USV, ASBM, ASCM, FAC with ASCM, C700s. It is an unrealistic countermeasure to Iran’s mine threat.

@shanaka86 No it didn't. They did not go in the Strait of Hormuz. They waited in the Gulf of Oman. No warship has escorted a commercial ship through the SoH.

BREAKING: The Indian Navy just escorted two LPG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian permission. Think about what that sentence contains. The world’s largest democracy. Whose prime minister received Israel’s highest parliamentary honour three weeks ago. Whose intelligence agencies reportedly helped the US locate the Iranian warship that was sunk by a submarine. That country just received safe passage from the same Iran whose military infrastructure Israel is bombing with American weapons. The tankers are Shivalik and Nanda Devi, state-owned Shipping Corporation of India vessels carrying fuel for India’s industrial sector. They crossed after Prime Minister Modi called Iran’s acting president and External Affairs Minister Jaishankar held three separate conversations with Araghchi. A third Indian tanker remains in the Persian Gulf under naval warship protection. Twenty-two Indian vessels had been stranded west of the strait. Iran said yes. To India. While saying no to everyone else. This is the permissioned chokepoint operating in real time. The Hormozgan provincial IRGC naval command, running Hormuz under Mosaic Doctrine standing orders without needing Tehran’s approval, verified the vessels by radio hail and AIS transponder signal. The Indian Navy provided the escort. But the escort alone does not explain passage. A naval warship reduces the physical risk of attack. It does not remove the legal requirement for maritime war risk insurance. Banks financing the cargo demand it. Ports receiving the vessel demand it. Letters of credit require it. Charterparty clauses mandate it. After P&I clubs cancelled Gulf war-risk extensions on March 5, single-voyage cover is available at 1 to 5 percent of hull value. For a state-owned vessel, government indemnity can substitute. But the cover must exist in some form or the vessel cannot trade. India’s SCI tankers carried either single-voyage war risk cover or sovereign indemnity. The Navy escorted. Iran permitted. The insurance architecture, the military architecture, and the diplomatic architecture all had to align simultaneously for two LPG tankers to cross 21 miles of water. That alignment took a head-of-state phone call, three foreign minister conversations, the release of three seized Iranian tankers, supplies of medicine, and a naval warship deployment. For two ships. Now consider what it would take to restore normal commercial traffic for the roughly 24 to 37 tankers per day that used to transit before February 28. The diplomatic, military, and insurance infrastructure required to move two state-owned LPG carriers under sovereign escort and government indemnity does not scale. It cannot be replicated for thousands of commercial vessels owned by private companies, insured by commercial markets, and financed by banks that will not accept a phone call from a foreign minister as a substitute for a valid P&I certificate. And here is the asymmetry the market has not priced. India got its LPG through. India has not got a single urea vessel through. No ammonia. No sulfur. The permissioned chokepoint grants energy to diplomatic allies while blocking the fertiliser molecules that India itself desperately needs. Indian plants are running at 60 percent capacity. Delhi asked Beijing for emergency urea on March 12. Beijing banned phosphate exports through August. The Indian Navy can escort a tanker. It cannot escort a molecule through a permission gate that has decided fertiliser is not on the approved list. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@Schizointel It's only Gulf of Oman, though. No escorts are in the SoH.

What's that? I was told by a bunch of randos on Twitter that no one was doing escorts. What is this may this be Operation Sankalp.

@TheRealDanSaedi At least credit me. Cheeky twat. x.com/_martinkelly_/…

Notice that every single Carrier/Tanker that has crossed the strait today did so away from regular shipping channels. This is the strongest evidence yet that the main waterway may be mined.

CONFIRMED - Iran is allowing select vessels transit the SoH after verfication At least 4 vessels have transited outbound voa the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24hrs with a short diversion via the Larak-Qeshm Channel. This appears to be a verification process whereby Iran confirms the ownership, cargo and vessel are not US, or belongs to those that Iran has permitted transit to. The ships that have passed are 3 bulk carrier (2 Greek / 1 Indian) and one aframax tanker (Pakistan).

Are we starting to observe a verification process by #Iran whereby ships must be approved to transit via the Strait of Hormuz by calling between Larak and Qeshm? During Pakistan-flagged tnaker KARACHI outbound transit, the vessel transiting between Larak and Qeshm, which is obviosuly not the advised route if trying to exit the Gulf without permission.

NO VESSELS HAVE BEEN ESCORTED VIA SoH.... yet, but some still continue to transit 🚨 Two Indian LPG carriers Shivalik & Nanda Devi RVd with the Indian Navy in the Gulf of Oman folloiwng recent outbound transit of the #StraitofHormuz. However, there was no close escort during the SoH transit. Rather, the Indian Navy waited in GoO. Also yesterday, #Pakistan-flagged oil tanker exited the Gulf via the SoH en route to #Karachi. Iran continues to export crude via the SoH. There is probably something to say about the threat profile of some ships (#India, Pakistan & #China) considering trade etc. But, Iran's targeting is v degraded and still does not completely reduce risk. #Trump asked Nations to deploy naval assets to secure the SoH. Perhaps a controversial topic; and for the record, I am of the 'do not escort' side of the house. But... there already exists CTF-152 of CMF; a 48 nation naval Coalition, IMSC, EAMSoH etc... that I have been part of and thought the whole point was to secure the SLOCs (including SOH)? #UK, #Australia, #France, #Germany, and #Japan have stated they will not deploy additional naval forces specifically in response to the request. Aus hasn't contributed in 6 years. UK has no conflict-worthy ships, France doesn't fancy it and neither does Germany - rightly so, becuase escorting in the SoH is extremly high risk and complex. With limited options, the wildcard of 'seizing #Kharg', or '#BandarAbbas' seems like a hopeful punt rather than a calculated approach.

@TankerTrackers It's normally busier than this, even during Ramadan.

People are working from home and it's Ramadan. Get a clue.

Gulf update - 14 March 26 🚨 No new Iranian attacks against ships in the past 24hrs. Does not mean reduced risk. #Fujairah port was hit with drones again today after reopening yesterday following Iranian attacks. US struck military installations at Kharg Island, #Iran. #Kharg is responsible for ~90% of Iran's exports. US did NOT hit #oil infrastructure. A member of the #Houthi political bureau said “the decision has already been made [to stand by Iran]. We are watching the situation closely and our finger is on the trigger, as Mr. al Houthi said. Yemen joining the conflict is only a matter of time.” However, the Head of the pro-Houthi Al Hawyah media network issued a statement clarifying that decisions regarding military escalation remain solely under the authority of the movement’s leader Abdulmalik al Houthi. FORD CSG has re-org in the #RedSea, possibly for onward transit via BAM, or for coordinated air defence of Gulf states whist missiles stocks are under threat. In short, much more of the same on the past 24hrs with very high risks for shipping, oil & gas and water. Eyes on Yanbu as #KSA attempts to sidestep Iran Hormuz blockade.

@Hinduism_sci This isn't new. Switched off AIS in the Gulf on 4 March and exited a day later.

BIG BREAKING 🚨 🇮🇳 🇮🇷 The first non-Iranian crude tanker has cleared the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions. 🇸🇦 🇮🇳 🇮🇷 The vessel Shenlong, carrying 135,335 metric tonnes of Saudi crude from Ras Tanura, has safely reached Mumbai. This marks the first non-Iranian tanker bound for India to transit the strait since tensions escalated. Energy markets are closely watching traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route.

IRAN ATTACKED A CHINESE SHIP 🚨 Day 12 of the Iran Conflict Today matches 12 Day War duration with #Israel. The 12 Day War ended because Israel came dangerously close to running out of interceptors. Since 28 Feb, #UAE alone has already intercepted more drones & missiles than Israel faced in June 25. #Trump says Iran is “near the end of the line”, and that the #StraitofHormuz is “in great shape”… possibly seeking an off-ramp to protect #Gulf States. However, in the past 24 hours: #Iran has attacked 3 more ships bringing the total 6 in 2 days and 19 overall: Today, Marshall Islands-flagged SAFESEA VISHNU (IMO 9327009), owned by the U.S.-based company Safesea Vishnu was struck during STS with #Malta-flagged ZEFYROS (IMO 9515917), owned and managed by #Greece-based Benetech Shipping SA offshore Umm Qasar, #Iraq. Additionally, a US owned, but #China -managed containership SOURCE BLESSING (IMO: 9243198) was attacked north of Jebel Ali. The latter shows Iran’s degraded targeting capability and risk of misidentification, even involving Chinese ships. In addition to the Maritime attacks, Iran struck the North Tower of #Dubai Creek Residence, #Bahrain airport and #oil facilities in Muharraq governorate, whilst the fire continues to rage at #Salalah following an Iranian drone attack yesterday. #SaudiArabia is diverting #oil to #Yanbu where ~30 VLCCs will arrive over the next few days to sidestep SoH transits. Iran has said 'not a drop of oil will leave the Gulf'. This, coupled with demonstrated intent by attacking all major Gulf export hubs, and outer Gulf (Salalah, #Fujairah etc), and capability to reach Yanbu; could increase the risk to Yanbu and/or the east-west pipeline (Abqaiq) that feeds it.

@MattMorseTV How would you know if tankers are lining up with their AIS transponders off?? You wouldn't. And that is not happening.

In a massive development, tankers are now lining up to traverse the Straight of Hormuz with their transponders flipped off. The IRGC's Hormuz shut-down has effectively come to an end in less than two weeks.

Decision time? If #Iran survives another week, #oil markets will suffer, and #Trump will be forced to reconsider strategic objectives which will be portrayed as a victory for Iran. Iran is firm on not negotiating - so time is running out. Today, Iran attacked Al Ruwais, #UAE. Al Ruwais Industrial Complex is significant because it's the UAE’s largest oil refinery & refines more than 922,000 barrels per day. Additionally, it is home to one of the UAE's THAAD batteries which is crucial for defence of UAE's airspace. Iran has now attack almost ALL major oil & gas export terminals causing multiple force majeure declarations and reduced/halted production including at Fujairah (3 times), Ras Laffan, Ras Tanura, Berri field off Jubail, #Kuwait, Rumalla Iraq, BAPCO #Bahrain. Additionally, a tanker reported a near miss 36nm north of #AbuDhabi. Iranian launches on 9 Mar declined markedly compared to previous days, with both BM & UAV launches falling to their lowest levels since the opening phase of the campaign. At least three American B-52 bombers have landed at the Royal Air Force base in Fairford, #UK. Before that, four B-1 Lancer bombers had also arrived there - perhaps a final push by Trump before a change in strategy.

@energy_blogger Thank you. Is this now 3 attacks against Fujairah: 3, 6 & 8 March?

@_MartinKelly_ x.com/energy_blogger…

This is a major concern guys…… Fujairah sits on the other side of Hormuz. If true ADNOC has no option must cut productions!

@MarineTraffic When was this attack?

Attack near Fujairah oil terminal disrupts bunker operations An attack near the Fujairah oil storage area has added fresh uncertainty to the regional bunker market as tensions in the Gulf continue to escalate. According to industry sources, product loading at the Fujairah Oil Tanker Terminal (FOTT) has been halted. Initial reports indicate significant damage to key infrastructure, with Manifold 1 — supplying berths 1, 2 and 7 — reportedly inoperable. Manifold 2 serves berths 8, 9 and VLCC berths, but several terminals are not connected to it, leaving large parts of the port currently unable to load or discharge cargo. Fujairah is the third-largest bunker port in the world, meaning disruptions could have broader implications for regional marine fuel supply. Watch the #MarineTraffic playback of vessel activity at the Port of Fujairah over the past week.

Goodness me.... David Lammy: “We work closely with our allies - because Cyprus is a NATO Country” 🤷‍♂️ 🤦‍♂️