
Shane Carden
3.4K posts

Shane Carden
@_Scarden5
ECU alum | Realtor @ Keller Williams Sun Valley Southern Idaho | Head Football Coach @ Wood River High School


A Place Where Football Matters. 🏴☠️






East Carolina currently has a 0.6% chance to make the CFP according to ESPN analytics 🏴☠️ The Pirates sit at 6-3, but have just one loss in American play. Their losses are to NC State, #12 BYU, and Tulane. All six of their wins have come by double digits: • Beat Campbell by 53 • Beat Coastal by 38 • Beat Temple by 31 • Beat Charlotte by 26 • Beat Army by 22 • Beat Tulsa by 14 I got curious as to what it would take for the Pirates to get to the Playoff and make that 0.6% chance come to fruition. Here’s ECU’s path to a CFP bid: • Win out (Memphis, at UTSA, at FAU) • Need Tulane to lose to one of FAU, at Temple, Charlotte (Tulane holds H2H tiebreaker over ECU) • Need North Texas to lose to one of at UAB, at Rice, Temple (UNT would hold ranking/metrics tiebreaker over ECU). • Need USF to keep winning/moving up in rankings (knock Navy out, provide a potential résumé win for ECU in American title game). • Assuming all of that happens and East Carolina gets to the American Championship, the Pirates would need to beat USF (who has preferably cracked the CFP Top 20). Having USF be the team they beat for the American title would greatly help their résumé compared to other G5 conference champs. • 10-3 American Champ ECU would be in contention for the 5th highest ranked conference champion autobid to the CFP. Their competition would likely be James Madison. • Need JMU to lose to App State, Washington State, or at Coastal, or potentially get upset in the Sun Belt Championship by Southern Miss. In that case, as a contingency, ECU should be rooting for Southern Miss to lose to one of Texas State, South Alabama, or Troy (to make them 10-3 instead of 11-2 hypothetically as the Sun Belt Champion). • 10-3 ECU with a Top 20 win over USF would probably get the nod over whoever the Mountain West Champ is, but San Diego State losing another game would make that virtually certain (UNLV/Hawaii/Boise wouldn’t have a better résumé). • The MAC and CUSA won’t really be in the picture. If all that happens 10-3 American Champion East Carolina would get the 5th highest ranked conference champion autobid to the College Football Playoff.























