The Antelope

NEW: Legislation to significantly expand Georgia's medical cannabis program has been signed into law by Governor Brian Kemp (R). themarijuanaherald.com/2026/05/georgi…

A proposal allowing veterans to receive medical marijuana recommendations from their Department of Veterans Affairs doctors was just given approval by the U.S. House Rules Committee. themarijuanaherald.com/2026/05/u-s-ho…

Ha, that probably came off like I was taking the ball and going home. Wasn't directed at you. The "fun while it lasted" line was about the other branch of this thread that was going off the rails. The back and forth with you was actually the part I was enjoying. Negative-energy banter is what I generally try to stay away from. We good. Love the back-and-forth w you as well✌🏼

I'm buying Tilray here. I want to be clear about what this thesis is and isn't, because the bull case for $TLRY is usually presented in ways I don't believe. I'm not buying because Tilray is well run. judging from the sentiment of this platform, Irwin Simon is widely considered the weakest CEO in the public sector. The dilution track record is bad. Capital allocation has been erratic. Strategy has rotated from medical cannabis to wellness to beverages to hemp depending on which quarter you're reading. I'm not buying because it's a pure cannabis play. It clearly isn't anymore. SweetWater, Breckenridge, Atwater, Montauk, Alpine, Green Flash, Hi-Ball, plus the BrewDog deal that closed last year. Add Manitoba Harvest in hemp foods. Cannabis is closer to half the revenue mix than the dominant business. I'm buying because the footprint Tilray has assembled is genuinely interesting to an acquirer who isn't Irwin Simon. The portfolio includes: - The largest medical cannabis producer in Canada - The #1 cannabis platform in Germany via Aphria RX - Production in Portugal and Italy serving the EU medical market - A craft beer portfolio with national distribution and recognizable regional brands - Manitoba Harvest hemp foods with US grocery shelf placement - A growing hemp-derived THC beverage business running through existing brewery infrastructure That stack is roughly what Constellation paid $4B for with Canopy, except built across diversified alcohol-adjacent and hemp-adjacent revenue streams, and currently valued at $716M market cap with $265M of cash. EV is roughly $711M on TTM revenue around $830M. That's 0.86x EV/Sales. CPG comps trade 1.5-3x. Even distressed cannabis trades 0.5-1x. The setup: - Stock down ~92% from all-time high - Reverse split in December 2025 reset the float (~112M diluted shares now) - Short interest 14.8% of float - Net cash position, basically debt-neutral - Sentiment is washed out in a way I don't see in any other cannabis name The bear case is real and worth acknowledging. ATM dilution continues. Diluted share count grew 24% YoY post-split. Irwin Simon is not a willing seller. He appears to fancy himself an empire-builder and continues to buy more assets. Constellation already burned billions on Canopy, so big alcohol's appetite for cannabis M&A is impaired. The take-out thesis for TLRY has been articulated since 2019 and nothing has come of it. What changes the math is the price: You don't have to believe in Irwin Simon to make money on TLRY. You have to believe the assets exist, that they're worth more in someone else's hands than his, and that the price has gotten low enough that even a mediocre outcome generates a return. At 0.86x sales with $265M of cash and 14.8% short interest, the asymmetry favors the long. A re-rate to 1.5x sales (still below CPG comps) puts the stock around $13. A take-out premium puts it higher. Continued grinding lower is the bear scenario, but the floor is closer than the ceiling because cash plus brand portfolio provides a real backstop. This is a buy on sentiment and valuation, not operating quality. I'm long, sized small relative to the portfolio. Removal of Simon or some form of strategic transaction isn't off the table. The board has the authority, activists have circled before, and beaten-down small caps have surprised in stranger ways. You don't need to underwrite the catalyst for the trade to work. The price is forgiving enough either way. Last thing. TLRY brings out the worst of cannabis Twitter. The replies on this will surface the same complaints I've already factored in: Irwin, the ATM, the dilution, going to zero. I've heard all of it. Most of it I agree with. The position is small for a reason. The bears could be completely right and this stock could go much lower from here. That's the trade. No need to convince me one way or the other. Small position, OTM LEAPs, lottery tickets. NOT ADVICE -- DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Yes, $TLRY could absolutely buy $VFF in a cash-and-stock deal. These deals happen in public markets all the time. Saying 'zero chance' shows a fundamental ignorance of how M&A actually works. Structure it the right way and a deal is absolutely possible. But if you take the time to actually read what I’ve written, I’m not predicting that scenario. On Irwin: read my original post. I led with criticism of him. On CWEB: I actually like the name and think it can be materially higher in a year. These things take time to play out, which is why I'm not questioning your call. Bedtime, over & out

@__OuttaControl_ @PeachFinancial @troncatdad @WeedStreet420 @IrwinDSimon Again there is zero chance that village farms would do a merger with tilray. Can tilray buy them at a 30-40% premium when they don’t have the proceeds to do so? Tilray has a scam artist ceo in Irwin Simon who makes $10-20 million in compensation. CWEB I bought even more!

With all due respect, trying to dunk with "lmao" in the middle of a probabilities conversation where people have actually shown their work is an odd choice. Especially when the top of your own feed is a 75K share CWEB buy around $1.00 which is now down over 1/3 in a month. We're all guessing. Maybe ease off the certainty when the receipts are this fresh.

@PeachFinancial @__OuttaControl_ @troncatdad @WeedStreet420 @IrwinDSimon Tilray market cap is $665m. $vff market cap is $293m. To offer a 30-40% premium would be like $400m. Tilray doesn’t have the cash. Why would $vff want to merge with that trash. The board won’t even look at it. lmao

While I didn’t bring up the Village Farms scenario, and it’s certainly not my base case, I will say that boards don’t get to ‘never sell.’ They have a fiduciary duty to consider any premium offer. $VFF management preference is clearly buy-side based on the Ruffini transition, but a credible offer at 30-40% premium forces a real evaluation. That’s table stakes for any public-co board.

@PeachFinancial @__OuttaControl_ @troncatdad @WeedStreet420 @IrwinDSimon There is no chance. Tilray is a junk company. VFF is actually profitable. So tilray pays a premium to buy $vff then they dilute to pay for it?

@PeachFinancial @troncatdad @WeedStreet420 No worries. And yeah, from everything I’ve read about Mike DeGiglio, he seems like he’s in it to win it. Legit businessman. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Village Farms start making acquisitions from here.

@__OuttaControl_ @troncatdad @WeedStreet420 They seem to be positioning for M&A by reassigning their CFO to that position - still could mean merger on the table but I was incorrect in what I said

@PeachFinancial @troncatdad Where’d you see that? I looked and only saw the Ruffini transition for their own buy-side M&A, nothing about a sell-side advisor. But if you’re right, that would be an example of an accretive deal that @WeedStreet420 was asking about.

@__OuttaControl_ @troncatdad 3/ $VFF is profitable , if you combined the two you would have a profitable business , market share growth , VFF has a US presence and they have hired investment bankers to find a buyer already $TLRY has the cash to do it , the industry needs amalgamation

Appreciate the analysis. The dilution-debt offset framing is the perhaps the most useful contribution to the thread so far. Looked through your timeline. Long-time $TLRY follower with some pretty direct shots at Irwin in the past. Curious where you're sitting now: still negative, neutral, or trending positive? Also curious on your $VFF reasoning. Natural fit on the Canadian medical side? Canopy expansion to meet international export demand? Or just vibes? Either way, I wouldn't mind a $VFF take-out at a reasonable premium. It's my third largest position behind $GTBIF and $GLASF

@__OuttaControl_ @troncatdad 3/ Pure speculation they are going to buy $VFF

@WeedStreet420 Ha, fair. Forgot about the meme angle, always lurking in the shadows. And on the Aphria house thing: Canopy buying Mettrum back in 2016 did the same for me. Wild days. Remember them fondly.

Lot to unpack. Going point by point: Over-diluted History says yes, that's why so many people won't touch the stock. But "overdiluted" in a vacuum while evaluating a stock isn't really a thing. Either the company has a history of diluting (true) or the company will dilute in the future (likely, but unknown). The question I’ve been working through: is future dilution priced in given the 20% drop in three weeks since the ATM announcement? If so, anything less than the full $180M draw becomes potential upside. If Irwin gets replaced by someone who wants to operate well instead of dilute and acquire, the thesis gets stronger. Why pay a premium without accretion or synergies PE doesn't need accretion. They need spread between purchase price and sum-of-parts exit. Tilray being the largest medical cannabis producer in Canada isn't some afterthought. The structure is there. Operational execution is what's missing. That's a separable problem with a real solution. Beer assets are leftover garbage Big Alcohol didn't want Sweeping claim, and neither of us actually knows the financials behind each deal (at least, I don’t). Maybe true for some, less true for others. Breaking down the unit economics of every craft beer acquisition is a different and much longer conversation. Calling all of them garbage glosses over what could be material differences between the assets. Big Alcohol uninterested + Canadian LP graveyard This is where PE comes back in. PE doesn't need Big Alcohol to want the platform. They buy, slice off the less desirable assets (alcohol if that's the call), focus on whatever they identify as the core, and operate. If that core is medical cannabis export, they have a real growth path. International medical cannabis is in the early innings of opening up, and Tilray's Canadian production base is structurally positioned to benefit from that wherever it happens. Position sizing As I wrote, lottery ticket for me. Less than 1% of the portfolio. I enjoy thinking through these setups and sharing the work, but this isn't my YOLO bet. Appreciate the pushback though, I enjoy the back-and-forth it makes the thesis sharper.

Fair question and worth clarifying. I never argued accretion specifically in the original post. I argued the assets could be worth more in someone else's hands than Irwin's. A few scenarios where the math could work: PE breakup: buy at $9 for ~$1.05B, sell beverage assets to a craft beer/spirits consolidator, sell cannabis verticals to international operators, sell Manitoba Harvest to a CPG food company. Sum-of-parts vs current $716M EV gets to a 30-40% IRR over 2-3 years. Accretive to the PE fund. Strategic acquirer: a beverage major (Constellation, ABI, Diageo, Molson Coors) takes the platform, cuts corporate overhead, folds the brand portfolio into existing distribution, uses tax NOLs to shield earnings. Accretion works at most reasonable purchase prices because TLRY is small relative to acquirer scale. Operational turnaround: doesn't require an acquirer at all. A real CEO runs the platform efficiently, stops the ATM, generates real FCF. Stock rerates on execution. Setting accretion aside, this is the most underwritable path because it doesn't depend on counterparty action. The post made the broader argument that multiple paths exist from $5.57 to higher prices, and the price is forgiving enough that you don't have to nail the specific catalyst.

Fair points and the dilution math is right. Lower stock means more shares to raise the same dollars. Where I'd push back slightly: if the ATM is fully priced in already, the bear case may be partially exhausted. TLRY went from ~$6.91 on April 14 to $5.57 today. That's roughly $157M of market cap loss on a 117M share base, almost exactly the size of the $180M ATM. The market may have already absorbed the dilution before a single share got issued. Three scenarios from here: 1. They draw the full $180M and the move is roughly priced in. Stock holds zone. 2. They tap less than $180M (strategic flexibility, market conditions, stock rebound). Less dilution becomes upside surprise. 3. The 20% decline isn't actually about the ATM, or only partially about it. The market may be signaling more concerns (additional dilution beyond $180M, weak operating fundamentals, sector breakdown). In that case the "priced in" thesis is wrong and there's more downside. My base case is (1) or (2) given the size match between the move and the ATM, but (3) is real. The position is sized small for that reason. Happy to be corrected if there's a piece of the math I'm missing.

@__OuttaControl_ To your point though it’s even worse that the stock is tanking right now. Because they haven’t even hit the ATM and the ATM was already factored into the last drop. The lower, the stock, the higher, the dilution, the higher, the stock the lower the dilution.

For what it's worth, I think you're a smart guy and I often make a point of attending your panels at conferences. My two points were, and remain: (1) she didn't say what you said she said, and (2) this industry is hard enough without scoring own-goals. Nothing more to add here. I wish you well, as I do everyone else in the industry. Back at it Monday ✌🏼

And I was also exercising freedom of speech by replying to Jason. We each have a risk-reward calculus to run. Mine: I might lose some followers or credibility on this platform. Jason's is different. As executive chairman of a public company, he has a fiduciary duty to his investors. Regardless, good luck with the trade. I mean that sincerely.

@__OuttaControl_ @JasonGWild Makes me want to buy more $TSNDF tbh. Calling out politicians, on both sides, for idiotic policies is called freedom of speech.

Could be wrong here, but my read is the $180M ATM was announced on April 15 when TLRY was at $7. Stock sits at $5.57 today, down ~20% in three weeks. History suggests they'll tap it (agreed there). But there's no guarantee they hit it in full, or anywhere close. The question I was wrestling with before writing the post: how much of this dilution is already priced in? If the move from $7 to $5.57 is the market pricing the full $180M at issuance levels, the asymmetry shifts. If they tap less than expected, that's upside. If they tap more aggressively, more downside. Curious if you've heard anything about the ATM beyond what's been made public?

@__OuttaControl_ 119 million shares are outstanding. They have not hit the ATM yet. All the other points I agree with. Irwin is a cancer, and if he was fired, you would actually see value with the stock. It’s going to be a long time before this brings back any kind of returns.

@jamiecampbell @JasonGWild Hey, guess I am weird then. Signing off, have a great weekend.

@__OuttaControl_ @JasonGWild Weird that it bothers you so much.