bwatts
17.2K posts
bwatts
@_bwatts_
Stock market trading analyst. Timeframe specific levels for directional bias. Short to medium-term setups.
Katılım Ocak 2021
54 Takip Edilen15.9K Takipçiler
A couple trades from last week. Puts on Monday and a call swing over the weekend. Puts were 3/20 660 at $3.52. Sold at $4.10 and closed runners a couple days later at $4.30. Call swing was 4/17 685 strike with $3.45 average. Sold at $3.75 and currently still holding a couple runners. This trade was a bit rough with the first entry getting smoked but stuck to the plan (shared the primary area of interest back on 3/13 and then primary levels to add when the trade was initiated) and took the trade back into profits with a couple runners still going. Today, I let everyone know to expect this current pullback before it happened, and here we are testing the premarket expansion. There's a potential bullish setup still in play here and why I am still holding a couple runners. $SPX $SPY $ES
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@PrinterSanti Thank you. I started looking at this possibility back in December. Then a lot more closely these past few weeks.
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Sitting at discount for this range off the lows. If it drops 654.23, looking for 651.27 / November low back test 649.49. A reversal setup at the November low back test could present an opportunity. Failure and we look for an opportunity out of new lows for another bounce.
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$SPY is now down about 6% from ATH and nearing the test of the November low at $650. Next week is setup to see the 10-Week SMA cross below the 20-Week SMA. The previous two times this happened at ATHs are the two mentioned in this original post. The comment section didn't like these scenarios very much back then, some even talked shit. The point then wasn't to say price was going to do exactly what it did those previous two times. It was showing what followed when those tops formed and how it seemed at the time that SPY was topping. There were similarities at the time and still are and then SPY topped.
It is entirely possible to simply sweep the November low and never look back. When the current setup presented itself previously, that was not the case.
The 50-Week SMA is making its way up the chart towards the November low and the bottom of weekly support. IMO, we are nearing a relief bounce.
bwatts @_bwatts_
A couple bear scenarios for 2026 (not a prediction). The setup is the same as the 2022 top and the 2025 top so worth looking at. $SPY $SPX $ES
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@ChiribogaTrigos How would you label that wave three internal structure? Many overlapping highs and lows along the way. Not sure that works tbh.
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@_bwatts_ x.com/ChiribogaTrigo…
Short?
Fernando Chiriboga Trigos@ChiribogaTrigos
Conteo alternativo para el #SP500 que gana fuerza: la ruptura de la onda 4 de menor grado rompió zonas de soporte clave, confirmando la estructura. Buscamos retrocesos Fibonacci de toda la subida desde el piso de abril 2025, incluso los 6150 que también actúa como soporte sólido. Zona interesante para posibles entradas largas en retroceso. ¿Qué opinan? #SP500 #Trading #SPX #SP500 $NDX $QQQ #stockmarkets #NASDAQ100 #SPY $SP500 #ElliottWave
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@_bwatts_ You are saying spy could bounce back to 680?if so that would be a 5% index bounce
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@_bwatts_ Bounce or die haha gonna be interesting today.
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$SPX is down almost 5% since rejecting supply and the PoC. Nearing a test of the 200-Day SMA 👀
bwatts @_bwatts_
$SPX has just corrected the February 12 bearish expansion. The previous bounce corrected the February 3 bearish expansion and sold off after sweeping that previous high. Currently we're sitting at the bottom of 1-hour supply and the PoC for the range from ATH to February 17 low. Breakout to test February 11 high (6993.48) or selloff?
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PPI data tomorrow.
We’re four red days consecutive here.
The most recent Feb 27 release dropped SPX -0.82%
Overall close up or down will likely be decided later in the day with interest rate and economic projections but the PPI data can give us an early day move before then.
$SPX $SPY $ES
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@farangmeow I use VIX9D due to looking for shorter-term range (next day). Standard VIX is 30 days so works better for weekly range which is a different calculation.
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@_bwatts_ Thank you, but your panel says VIX9D? Is it what you are using for calculations, i guess its a bit different from VIX?
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Tomorrow’s expected range.
68% chance price stays inside these ranges:
- $ES: 6,559.03 – 6,802.97
- $SPY: 653.90 – 678.22
- $SPX: 6,550.80 – 6,794.42
- $NQ: 24,094.32 – 25,017.18
- $QQQ: 586.04 – 608.48
- $NDX: 24,072.57 – 24,994.59
Example from today on SPX in the comments. Not always do they mark tops and bottoms but when the boundaries are reached, price often stops unless there is a major catalyst.
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I made the panel.
Expected range for S&P is based on VIX. For Nasdaq, VXN. When volatility is high the range is big and when volatility is low, the range is small.
As you can see from some in the comment section they don’t understand its purpose. However, it’s very useful. Picture Bollinger Bands and how price reacts to top and bottom. 68% chance price stays within the range.
It’s been useful and the lower range has held multiple pullbacks over the past couple weeks.
Easiest way to get the percentage to use is to input prices into whatever AI platform you use and let it do the math or you can get close enough with dividing VIX by 16. Add that percent in each direction.
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@_bwatts_ How do you calculate them? And where is this nice panel located?
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