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White House confirms more US-Iran peace deal talks are actively being discussed, even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. That disconnect is the real story. Trump tied the ceasefire to the strait reopening, but ships still aren't moving freely. Whether these talks produce anything concrete or just more headlines is the question the oil market is pricing in right now.

$NVDA just closed out a 10-day winning streak, its longest run in months. The rally comes as confidence in the AI trade quietly rebuilt itself after a rough stretch earlier this year. Blackwell demand, data center spending commitments from hyperscalers, and fading fears around export restrictions all gave bulls a reason to come back in. The stock is up roughly 50% from its April lows.

Secretary of State Rubio met with Egypt's foreign minister today to discuss a potential Iran ceasefire, the latest sign that back-channel diplomacy is picking up steam. Egypt has historically played a quiet but important mediating role in Middle East conflicts. Rubio choosing Cairo as a stop suggests the US is working to build a regional coalition around any eventual deal rather than going it alone.

Venezuela's government is pushing oil companies for input on the energy sector while making clear that US sanctions need to go. Jorge Rodriguez says the licensing framework lacks long-term legal certainty, which is exactly the argument major oil producers have used to avoid committing serious capital to Venezuelan fields. $CVX has been one of the few US companies operating there under an OFAC license, and that license status has always been the central question for anyone looking at Venezuelan crude production. If sanctions come off, Venezuela could eventually add meaningful supply back to global oil markets. It is sitting on the world's largest proven oil reserves but has seen output collapse from over 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to a fraction of that today. Any credible path toward lifting restrictions would be a supply story worth watching.

$ORCL closed higher for the second straight day as the software sector continued to bounce, and the company expanded its capacity agreement with Bloom Energy. Bloom Energy was the real story today, closing up 22% on the news. The deal is tied to AI data center power demand, which is becoming one of the most important infrastructure themes in the market right now. Data centers need massive, reliable power, and fuel cell companies like Bloom are increasingly being seen as part of the solution.

Kim Jong Un says he is ready to meet with Trump at any time to help mediate between the US and Iran. This is a notable offer given North Korea's historically close ties with Tehran. Whether Trump takes it seriously is another question, but any new diplomatic channel involving the Hermit Kingdom and Iran in the same sentence is worth watching.

UK 10-year gilt yields just hit 4.9158%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, as the government sold a record £15 billion in bonds through its 2036 syndication. The demand was staggering. £148 billion in orders poured in for that £15 billion sale, nearly a 10x oversubscription. That kind of appetite suggests global investors still want UK debt, but they are demanding a serious premium to hold it. Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for the British government at a time when fiscal pressure is already a major political flashpoint in London. Worth watching how this feeds into the broader developed market bond story. Gilt yields moving to post-2008 highs does not happen in a vacuum.

Novo Nordisk moved higher after announcing a broad partnership with OpenAI aimed at speeding up drug development and workforce training. The deal is notable because it puts one of the biggest pharma companies in the world directly in the AI development pipeline, not just using off-the-shelf tools but building something more integrated. For a company that has been under pressure after disappointing obesity drug data earlier this year, this is a clear pivot toward a growth narrative the market can get excited about.

$AMZN just closed out its seventh straight day of gains, its longest winning streak since 2022. The Globalstar acquisition is the catalyst. The deal gives Amazon a direct path into satellite connectivity, which ties into its broader push to compete with Starlink on low-orbit internet access. Add in the steady AWS tailwinds and the stock has quietly been one of the better performers in mega-cap tech over the past two weeks.

Bitcoin moved up to test a resistance level Tuesday that has kept a lid on the rally for months, with technical analysts saying a clean break could open the door to $98,000. The level in question has rejected multiple attempts at a breakout. The fact that it's being tested again after a sustained run higher is what has chart watchers paying attention this time around.

IMF chief Georgieva is threading a needle on central bank policy, warning that moving too fast to tighten could choke off growth, but leaving the door open to action if inflation starts spreading beyond energy prices. The key phrase is "secondary inflation effects." That's central bank language for inflation bleeding into wages and services, which is the scenario that turns a commodity shock into a full repricing of rate expectations globally.

IMF chief Georgieva is now warning that April's market impact from the Gulf crisis could be worse than March, pointing to tankers leaving the region that may not come back and countries quietly stockpiling oil reserves. The stockpiling detail is significant. When nations start hoarding supply, it typically accelerates the price spike rather than cushioning it. This is a supply crunch compounding on top of a shipping disruption, and the IMF is flagging it at the top level.

IMF chief Georgieva is warning that the oil shock is pulling focus away from risks she considers just as serious, including AI-related financial instability and broader systemic concerns in global markets. The comment lands at an interesting moment. Markets have been laser-focused on Hormuz and crude prices, but Georgieva is essentially flagging that the next crisis might not be the one everyone is watching.

The S&P 500 closed up 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 finished 1.8% higher today, giving the Nasdaq its longest winning streak since 2021. The driver was the same theme that has been carrying this market all week: hopes that US-Iran nuclear talks lead somewhere real. Risk appetite is back in a big way. The S&P is now knocking on the door of all-time highs.

Kraken has confidentially filed for a US IPO, co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed today, backing up earlier reporting from CNBC. The timing makes sense. Crypto markets have been on a tear, $COIN has held up well, and the regulatory environment under the current administration is the friendliest it has been in years for digital asset companies. Kraken going public would be one of the bigger crypto listings since Coinbase hit the Nasdaq back in 2021.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva says a rapid global recovery is still on the table if the conflict ends within two weeks, but a prolonged disruption through summer puts the world economy in a seriously adverse position. The harder number: 20% of global oil and gas is still offline. The IMF is actively engaging with countries that will need support if this drags on. That is not a minor footnote. That is a supply shock with a ticking clock attached to it.

Iran says it's staying at the negotiating table, but not because it wants a deal. An Iranian lawmaker told CNN the country plans to keep engaging in talks specifically to expose what it calls misconduct by the US side. That framing suggests Tehran sees diplomacy more as a PR battlefield than a path to an agreement right now. This is a notable shift in tone from the ceasefire optimism that lifted markets earlier this week.

$COST reported an interesting shift in how its members are spending. Shoppers are pulling back on discretionary items and trading down in some categories, but traffic and membership renewal rates remain strong. The core business is holding up, but the mix is changing in ways that reflect broader consumer caution heading into the back half of the year. This lines up with what Albertsons flagged earlier this week about softer consumer behavior. When two very different retailers are seeing the same thing, it starts to look less like a company-specific issue and more like a macro signal worth watching.

Albertsons missed its sales estimates and issued a weak outlook, blaming slower GLP-1 drug adoption and higher gas prices for squeezing its customers. The company also announced a $774 million settlement to resolve opioid-related claims, adding another layer of pressure. The stock was falling Tuesday afternoon on the combined news.

S&P 500 closed higher for the second straight session as traders bet on a US-Iran nuclear deal getting done. The index has now recovered nearly all of its April losses. With the Warsh confirmation hearing set, shipping traffic holding, and talks still technically alive, markets are choosing to look past the noise for now.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to be holding up despite weeks of tensions, with more than 20 commercial vessels making the transit in the last 24 hours according to the Wall Street Journal. That is a meaningful data point. All the talk of a blockade has not yet translated into a shutdown of actual vessel movement, which may explain why oil markets have not fully priced in a worst-case scenario.