J.P. Capital

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J.P. Capital

J.P. Capital

@_j__f

Private Fund Manager. This is never financial advice. https://t.co/tqpyMBSDiT

Investor Katılım Eylül 2020
66 Takip Edilen317 Takipçiler
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
1/ I firmly believe the majority of value in healthcare will accrue to the biggest network with the least latency and the most *relevant* and proprietary data. The intelligence contained will be an unprecendeted deflationary force for the US Healthcare System.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I’m surprised markets aren’t pricing in long term disruption of card networks + interchange like $V and $MA. By $CRCL and $COIN. From Global Markets Head at Circle: "Over the past nine months, AI agents completed 140 million payments with a total transaction volume of 43 million US dollars. Among these, 98.6% were settled in USDC, with an average transaction amount of only 0.31 US dollars." Card networks and % fee payment processors like $PYPL are likely going to be cooked?
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
@Finding_Moats 2/ and they had like 2% Market Share at peak. In theory, the US Gov could provide such a solution, and California has tried, but it never gained any traction. $INTU does not compete on price.
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
@Finding_Moats 1/ Intuit has had competition that offered free tax filling for decades. A few years ago, Xero tried to capture share in the US market. It did not work, they are 50x the size at least in NA. Before acquiring Credit Karma, they had a free tax offering (which was then divested)
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Finding Moats Investment Research
Few businesses, such as $MCO or $SPGI, can plausibly argue that they would not lose meaningful market share even if competitors offered their services for free. Any other examples?
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
@WillBiddy_ I don’t think their pricing power is that insane. AI implementation is something every company will do. I’m not saying they won’t compound but I don’t see them compounding at 20%.
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Will Biddy
Will Biddy@WillBiddy_·
Insane pricing power, ai implementation to reduce costs, cost per unit is increasing while cyclical demand for total-losses is down (as it does from time to time historically), amount of vehicles for total loss claims will continue to increase with rising repair costs! Also it’s compounded at an insane rate over the past couple decades.
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Will Biddy
Will Biddy@WillBiddy_·
If you had to guarantee me one stock to grow Free Cash Flow per share by 20% CAGR for the next decade what would you pick? I’d have to go with one of: $MA $V $GOOGL $META $CPRT
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
@P_Earns24 @QualityInvest5 Just read the case of synchrony. They switched to VS, saved 2 million of 18B of revenue and lost the ability to securitize at attractive rates. I’d suggest being knowledgeable about a business before you comment on it.
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Aria Radnia 🇮🇷
Aria Radnia 🇮🇷@QualityInvest5·
When $FICO charges $10 per credit score and Vantage used to cost $4 (a significant discount) and it gained no meaningful traction Why would this dynamic change AT ALL if Vantage is discounted even more?
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Pivot Point Investing
Pivot Point Investing@P_Earns24·
It’s not about saving 3 bucks on a credit pull, it’s about the total addressable market my friend. VantageScore can address millions of credit invisible consumers that classic FICO models entirely ignore. Lenders may use Vantage to underwrite profitable customers they literally couldn't approve otherwise
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
@P_Earns24 @QualityInvest5 And it would also actually increase the overall cost of the system to have VS in the securitization market. No one would benefit from this.
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
@P_Earns24 @QualityInvest5 VS and FICO Score are not comparable. They diverge in both directions. You‘d need a completely separate set of LLPAs, systems. Etc. It just adds uncertainty if you have a double rating for investors. $FICO is a *natural* monopoly.
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
@P_Earns24 @QualityInvest5 It’s the same dynamic as with $SPGI and $MCO. Other agencies may be cheaper in the rating, but it’s not worth it as you pay more coupon.
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
@P_Earns24 @QualityInvest5 This is also a stupid logic. I’m sorry. VantageScore has been around for over 20 years now. It was always cheaper than $FICO. Even if it were for free it would not make a dent. The economics just don’t allow it, as you pay a higher coupon when securitizating the debt.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
There’s a reason many of the world’s best investors spend so much of their time reading and walking rather than constantly watching the markets. 1. Reading compounds knowledge and sharpens judgment. 2. Perhaps more importantly, it helps tune out the noise. When you’re reading or walking, your mind is focused on ideas — not the daily movements of stocks. Protecting your psyche as an investor is incredibly important.
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Aria Radnia 🇮🇷
Aria Radnia 🇮🇷@QualityInvest5·
Per capita consumption of margarine and divorce rates in Maine have a 99% correlation Is margarine the root of all evil?
Aria Radnia 🇮🇷 tweet media
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George Hadjia
George Hadjia@GHadjia·
Bristlemoon just published a 16k+ word report on $FICO, the credit score monopolist that has increased its mortgage scores prices by 800% over the last three years. We explore how entrenched FICO is in the US credit ecosystem and whether the company still has pricing power...
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J.P. Capital
J.P. Capital@_j__f·
@QualityInvest5 The credit bureaus are bundling VantageScore for 0$ when u buy an $FICO score from them. Why? They still earn money on the markup. $FICO direct licensing is directly hurting their revenue, as barely anyone uses VantageScore because securitization.
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Aria Radnia 🇮🇷
Aria Radnia 🇮🇷@QualityInvest5·
Orange arrow is where $FICO gets its SUPER POWERFUL moat from That’s what every investor should really care about. Not at the point of origination
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Aria Radnia 🇮🇷
Aria Radnia 🇮🇷@QualityInvest5·
My extremely complicated and messy explanation of where $FICO sits in the value chain, grounded in an analogy Worthy of a read IMHO 👇
Aria Radnia 🇮🇷@QualityInvest5

A visual breakdown of how the mortgage industry value chain works, and who the key players are 👇 Following the Red Arrows: 1️⃣ You generate credit activity through your bank. 2️⃣ Your bank reports that activity to the credit bureaus. 3️⃣ When you apply for a mortgage, the bureaus( $EFX, $TRU, and $EXPN ) get $FICO to score your data (costs about $5–$10) 4️⃣ The bureaus then bundle everything into a credit report and sell it to the bank for $20–$30 each. 5️⃣ The bank uses that report to make a lending decision Follow the Black Arrows: 1️⃣ You pay roughly $500 in application fees 2️⃣ The red arrow process happens ––> your reports are pulled and a lending decision is made 3️⃣ The bank sells your mortgage to a GSE (Government-Sponsored Entity) 4️⃣ The GSE bundles many mortgages into Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) 5️⃣ Each mortgage inside that MBS gets RE-SCORED by $FICO (see orange) 6️⃣ Those MBS are then sold on the secondary market to big investors like $GS or $JPM The key here? Step 5 in the black arrow chain: *securitization* That’s where $FICO re-scores bundled mortgages, holding a 98% market share and generating most of its score-based revenue. I hope this visual clears things up, it’s a complex system, and I probably messed up a few details but I hope it helps! 😅

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