JK

@hanakoxbt Yeah right ;-)

a drunk Jane Street quant drew his trading system on a napkin it started as a joke. someone's friend at a bar in lower manhattan. he mentioned prediction markets and this guy lit up. "i do this for a living. for a firm you've heard of" two rounds later he was drawing on a napkin. boxes. arrows. labels. "the crowd repeats six mistakes every single day. we just built detectors for each one" > base rate neglect > mispriced conditionals > thin book slippage > platform divergence > favourite bias > time decay "that's the whole system" i asked what it costs to run. "200 quants. proprietary infra. about $2M/year just to keep it on" i laughed. photographed the napkin. went home. 3am. couldn't sleep. opened Claude. fed it the photo and one GitHub repo - poly_data. 86 million trades. every wallet. every entry. said: build detectors for all six. by 4AM my laptop fan was screaming. 400+ markets scanning per hour. 8 agents deployed. terminal live. i didn't understand half of what was on screen. but the P&L number kept climbing. +$312 by breakfast. +$1,900 by end of day one. +$7,400 by end of week one. +$16,474 right now. 383 trades. 81% win rate. the scanner finds gaps like: > AAPL earnings - crowd says 77%. data says 91%. > Gold $2600 - crowd says 44%. model says 60%. > Senate filibuster - crowd says 68%. base rate says 82%. enters. waits 6 hours average. exits when the gap closes. politics at 93%. weather 79%. crypto 72%. eight agents split the work. one mirrors whales. one catches Binance lag. one fades favourites. one bleeds theta on dying contracts. his firm runs this with 200 people. mine runs on $25/month. copytrade here: @1743116" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@1743116 texted him the screenshot yesterday. long pause. "you're not supposed to be able to do this" i know.

Every bottom-up (founder led) institution eventually turns into a top-down one or goes bankcrupt. This applies to both for-profit and non-profit organizations, and the outcome is always the same: the pursuit of profit and power. History consistently supports this.

understanding the rythm of the market is more important than understanding price pattern itself. Knowing when price pattern has a chance of success and when its prone to failure gives you edge in 50/50 price pattern coin flip

price x value divergence at its extreme yesterday in crypto #btc #sol #eth

FUNDED TRADER MODEL EXPOSED I’ve been blown away by how the funded trader programs ecosystem has grown so enormous yet stayed so under the radar. Zero mainstream mentions despite a multi-billion dollar ecosystem! That all ended today with this Bloomberg piece on the predatory practices of funded trader programs. I suspect this is going to be the first of many news stories and eventual regulatory action. Especially after @matt_levine picked up on it as well.

price can bring lot of noise, remove price, and keep just developing value #tracking #SOL

when price does not need aggressive sellers to go down, it means it lacks a bid, watch for A) compression in the range post sell-off and sell the market in the direction of the first leg B) if V reversed, watch for compression at higher prices for second leg higher

without self-image, there is no should

Intraday value moving below two anchored VWAP on NQ since 26 Nov. Watching NQ into the close like a hawk.

there are different layers of "risk on", and we are seeing a rotation from long-duration to short-duration equity exposure as we speak

Yes it was ...

eurusd getting beautiful positioning for breakout higher leading to #FOMC. Will FOMC be the catalyst? #eurusd

higher lows are telling but we now know where panic line is #sol #update

In the attention economy, there are hopium makers and hopium breakers (aka hopiers). High speculative asset classes have a positive correlation to the statements of these hopiers. I am deeply interested in building an algorithm that can track the pulse of a narrative of hopiers.

Realization of the Day: 8/10 Gen Z in the Philippines I talked to do not own / not planning to own any crypto in the near future. They don't see utility in owning it, and they generally lack disposable income. Crypto still needs a clear use case for the majority of the world.

quantum popping up, probably late to party short sellers covering (doesnt really matter), two light blue lines is the decision zone, observing weekly close like a hawk #quantum

this tells you everything you need to know about the state of crypto right now - everyone is shitting their pants with every down move #sol #relativevolume

@saylordocs Ass piss

What do you call this pattern??