DrManhatten
7.4K posts


@tig88411109 What do u think was the reason that US started the invasion in the first place?
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Markets Bought the Walkaway. The rally had nothing to do with Iran.
Hormuz is still broken. The proxies are still armed. Iran is wounded, not gone. Nothing about the region improved last week.
What changed was one thing
For the first time, Washington sounded like it might stop volunteering for the whole bill.
That was the trade.
Investors had spent weeks inside a brutal assumption. America starts the war, America owns the aftermath. Break the military, reopen the Strait, escort the tankers, calm the oil, police the region, babysit the allies, and stand there indefinitely while Europe lectures and Asia imports. Markets were pricing that future, not the war itself.
Trump cracked the assumption. He didn’t solve anything. He just made it sound like America might hit hard enough, break enough, call it enough, then leave Hormuz to the countries that actually need it. Japan. South Korea. China. Europe. They consume the oil. They use the lane. Let them price the risk.
The moment that path became thinkable, the left tail got cheaper. That was the entire move.
The old consensus had a clean, expensive logic, either America forces total compliance and delivers a stable region, or it loses.
Too neat. Too moral. Too divorced from who actually pays for ships, inflation, and blood. Markets had started believing that trap was real.
Then Trump reminded everyone that victory is whatever the White House decides is enough before the costs get worse. You can hate that. Markets loved it.
Because markets don’t need morality. They need an exit. Not a clean one. Not a honorable one. Just a believable path where the
U.S. stops acting as armed insurance for countries that didn’t show up when the risk was live.
The war is still dirty. Washington just stopped sounding married to the cleanup.

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@joecarlsonshow he was right about the tariff selloff and he might be right about this one too but the difference between a tariff tantrum and a hot war with closed shipping lanes is not trivial
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My video today that highlighted why it’s a statistically, logically, and historically a good time to buy stocks has received the most negative comments so far this year of any video I’ve made.
Almost every comment is explaining why and how things can get worse than they already are.
This is almost identical to the response I had when I was bullish during the tariff sell off. Everyone explained to me then how things will never be the same and the relationships between the US and the rest of the world were damaged forever.
Of course, those investors missed out as the market quickly recovered from the tariff lows. Sentiment changed quickly as stock prices rose.
It’s a common pattern, every time stocks go down people become more convinced that they will go down further. I haven’t seen social sentiment this bad in a long time.
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@adamkhootrader Your recommended tennis ball stocks all become rotten eggs
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Cybersecurity stocks are dropping pre-market today (March 27, 2026) primarily due to a major data leak exposing details about Anthropic’s unreleased “Claude Mythos” AI model, which the company itself describes as posing “unprecedented cybersecurity risks.
Another irrational selloff presenting investors an opportunity
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Some wholesome story that happened recently:
Went to the gym as usual, a gym bro noticed that I have a One Piece phone case
Promised me that he’ll give me an OP card when he sees me next time
Two weeks later (today), he saw me in the gym and gave me the card of one of my two top favorite characters from One Piece as a token of friendship
Whoever tells you that Anime doesn’t connect people is wrong
I’ll never forget this interaction

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DrManhatten retweetledi

@qualtrim $goog is a great company however overpriced right now, it’s still cheaper compared to rest of mag 7, however one should have loaded back in May, now seems too late for the late AI bubble cycle, I’ll wait for sub 100-150 range
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Analysts continue to turn more bullish on Google pre-earnings:
- Raymond James raised PT → $275
- Stifel raised PT → $292
- Bernstein raised PT → $260
$GOOGL $GOOG

Qualtrim@qualtrim
Analysts just raised their Google price targets. - Oppenheimer raised PT → $300 - BofA raised PT → $280 $GOOGL $GOOG
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@adamkhootrader I know the truth from watching many of your videos, for many years.
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@SWINGTRADEREMIL @adamkhootrader @SWINGTRADEREMIL could u provide your response pls? U seemed so confident in your allegations
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As an investor , the risk of selling winning stocks too early is far riskier than selling losing stocks too late
A losing stock can only -100% but a winning stock can gain over +1,000%
I sold EL too late and lost -45% but I’ve held onto winners like NVDA +1,173% and PLTR +1,800%
Never cut your flowers too early 🌹
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But I ultimately must forgive myself, as it’s not my fault. I didn’t create this, and I didn’t set the rules that make speaking feel like treason. All I’ve done is survive within the boundaries that were handed to me, trying to navigate a game where the stakes are never clear and the rules keep changing. Carrying the weight of that isn’t the same as choosing it.
Forgiveness, though, doesn’t make it easier. It doesn’t quiet the thoughts that keep me awake at night or dull the edge of knowing what I know. But maybe it’s the first step toward reclaiming a little piece of myself — the part that refuses to be defined by fear, or by the silence that fear demands. Maybe forgiving myself is the only way to find enough strength to decide what comes next.
And yet, even with that small sense of grace, I can feel the clock ticking. Every day I hesitate, the choice becomes heavier, sharper. Maybe that’s what this all comes down to: not whether I’ll find the courage to speak, but whether I can bear the weight of never having tried.
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I’ve gone back and forth about this for weeks, maybe months. Every time I tell myself to let it go, to just leave it buried, it pushes back. It’s in the quiet moments — when the noise fades and I’m left alone with my thoughts — that it creeps in, demanding to be acknowledged. And maybe that’s why I’m writing this now. Not because I want to, but because I don’t think I can keep pretending anymore.
I know what people will say. That I’m being dramatic. That I’m looking for attention. That if it were really that important, I would’ve spoken up sooner. And maybe they’re right. Maybe my hesitation makes me a coward. But hesitation doesn’t come from nowhere. It comes from knowing what happens when certain lines are crossed. It comes from watching what happens to people who dare to speak.
I’ve seen it. We all have. The moment someone even hints at it, the room changes. Voices rise. Faces twist. People you thought you knew suddenly feel like strangers, and the air gets sharp, like it could cut you just for breathing wrong. That’s why so many of us stay silent. Not because we don’t care, but because we’ve learned — the hard way — that some truths cost more than we can afford.
Still, the silence eats at you. It starts small, like a whisper you can almost ignore. But then it grows. It follows you into conversations, into dreams, into those moments where you’re supposed to feel safe. You start to see it everywhere — in the news, in casual jokes, in the way people talk when they think no one’s really listening. It’s like being haunted, except the ghost is alive and well, walking around in broad daylight.
I wish I could make this easier, cleaner, something that wouldn’t leave me shaking just to think about saying it. But there’s no easy way to do this. There never was. And maybe that’s the real reason nobody talks: because once you name it, once you let the words exist outside of your own mind, you can’t pretend it’s not there anymore.
I’m not naive. I know what will happen. Some people will act like they didn’t hear me. Others will tell me I’ve lost it, that I’ve let paranoia or bitterness or some unnamed weakness get the better of me. And maybe a few will quietly agree but stay quiet anyway, because they don’t want to be dragged into it. I can’t blame them. The weight of this is heavy enough; I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.
But I also know there are some of you who will understand. Maybe not all of it, maybe not right away, but enough to feel that same chill in your spine when you realize what’s really going on. Enough to recognize that some silences aren’t peaceful — they’re prisons. And breaking out of them is the only way to breathe again.
So, no, I’m not ready to say it — not here, not yet. But I needed you to know that I’m done pretending it’s nothing. That it’s just some passing thought I can shake off. Because it’s not. It never was. And sooner or later, whether it’s me or someone braver, someone louder, the words will come. And when they do, there won’t be any going back. But maybe I actually am ready.. not sure.
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@joecarlsonshow This is just one day's performance guys, it means nothing.
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