《Paper Towels》RHR of 39 bpm, cardio crush

🇮🇷 Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf just posted a very pointed question about which countries and companies depend most on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for oil, LNG, wheat, rice, and fertilizer shipments. To be clear, that's a multi-layered threat. First, the Houthi card. Iran doesn't border the Bab el-Mandeb; Yemen does. By pointing at this chokepoint, Ghalibaf is reminding everyone that Tehran can order the Houthis to shut down the Red Sea entirely. Despite Saudi backroom efforts to keep them quiet, Iran is signaling they're ready to pull the trigger. Second, he's weaponizing global starvation. He didn't just mention oil and LNG. He specifically highlighted wheat, rice, and fertilizer. With Hormuz already choked and crude past $140, closing Bab el-Mandeb would simultaneously trigger an energy crisis in Europe and food shortages across the developing world. Third, he's putting a target on corporate boardrooms. By asking "which companies" have the highest transit volumes, he's warning the likes of Maersk and MSC that their vessels are in the crosshairs. The goal is to spark panic in maritime insurance markets that halts shipping before a single missile is even fired. The message to Washington is crystal clear: keep bombing our capital and dismantling our infrastructure, and we will use our proxies to dismantle the global supply chain. Two chokepoints. One lever. And Iran still has its hand on it. And he's doing it with a thinking emoji, which might be the most menacing use of an emoji in the history of geopolitics...

Everything suggests that at least ~4 million barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz today. Largest outflow since the 1st day of the Third Gulf War. (... And yes, that's a fraction of the 20 million barrels a day that typically left the SoH on any given day pre-war...)

BREAKING: CHINA DESTROYS TRUMP Trump: We need $2 billion a day to reopen the Strait of Hormuz China's FM Senator: But the Strait of Hormuz was already open before the war? The root cause of this disruption is your illegal military operations against Iran. You have created a Global Crisis OUT OF NOTHING”

A new ARD-Deutschlandtrend poll shows record dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU–SPD coalition. Only 15% are satisfied, meaning about 85% are unhappy, the lowest rating since the government took office in May 2025.