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@_tobiho

Katılım Mayıs 2016
15 Takip Edilen14 Takipçiler
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Jäger@_tobiho·
$SNDK $MU What Memory Bulls want to see from the ERs this week: - Fat capex spend on memory - moderate capex increases from suppliers - 2028/2029 outlooks increasing more than 2027s - continuing EPS blowouts
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Jäger@_tobiho·
$SNDK $MU It's understandable that traders cannot fathom why Sandisk is non-stop going up. Because nobody has ever seen earnings growth like this. Prices are not keeping up with P/E estimates. Yes read that again. IT'S GETTING CHEAPER WHILE MOVING UP
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Jäger@_tobiho·
$MU btw since this post (4 weeks ago) the 2027 consensus has increased from 75 to 95 and for 2028 it increased from 60 to 81. Institutions don't like that it may peak in 2027 because of the DRAM price hikes. BUT it is still undervalued even if you just look at the 2028 EPS.
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Jäger@_tobiho

$MU Microns earnings are insane. The expectations were sky-high and they beat those expectations like nothing. Analysts are increasing their EPS forecasts almost daily and the report still tops them. 2027 EPS consensus is 76.77 right now. Yeah that's 5.8 P/E for 2027 at $450.

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Jäger@_tobiho·
$AMD This aged well thus far. Consolidation/Pullback into earnings on May 5th would be nice for continuation in the short term. After this initial impulse, a pullback after earnings is acceptable. $NVDA did have a 10% pullback in 3 days before their ER in Feb '24 then +16%....
Jäger@_tobiho

$AMD $NVDA Will $AMD 3x in one year from the ATH base break just like $NVDA did in 2024? The similarities are obvious but how much can we expect? I think $500 for $AMD is not unrealistic. Rapid EPS growth, growing demand for their products, CPU shortage. This has potential.

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Jäger@_tobiho·
$AMD $NVDA Will $AMD 3x in one year from the ATH base break just like $NVDA did in 2024? The similarities are obvious but how much can we expect? I think $500 for $AMD is not unrealistic. Rapid EPS growth, growing demand for their products, CPU shortage. This has potential.
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Jäger@_tobiho·
@FeroceResearch I like to read research personally. Maybe an X article even?
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Feroce Research
Feroce Research@FeroceResearch·
is a video format, or text format better for this? i dont mind doing either, but whatever the Micron $MU prefers more lmk! i always like to prioritize whatever the community wants and finds useful
Feroce Research@FeroceResearch

I believe Micron $MU can hit 600 by the 2nd last week of May if you know my track record on micron, you’d know that when I do make public claims with a time-frame given, it’s been spot on so far I don’t mind breaking it all down for free if enough interest is shown

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Jäger@_tobiho·
$NVO 2nd buy ~$35.5 USD completed after ex-dividend. Holding for many years so I'm fine with buying the price dip without the dividend. Stress-free accumulation = worth so much in these market environments!
Jäger@_tobiho

$NVO is on sale - at least in my opinion.. This is a scenario 1 Investment in my book. Let me explain: - solid company that struggles in short term - market overreacts and prices get "too low" - EPS projections to full recovery in 2 years - 4% dividend p.a. at these prices 🧵⬇️

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Jäger@_tobiho·
@JonahLupton @Deenobrown123 Interesting.. So on TIKR, as per your screenshot, has 18 estimates for NVDA FY2029? Finviz has only 2. Well making EPS estimates for that far out with that much change in prices, margins, demand and production is also a big ask imo
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
@_tobiho @Deenobrown123 I didn’t realize it was only 1 analyst, that is shocking… a company with ~20 sell side analysts covering in CY2026 only has 1 analyst putting out estimates in FY2029… now compare that to $NVDA which has 18+ estimates for FY2029.
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Dean Marantis🇺🇸🇬🇷
Dean Marantis🇺🇸🇬🇷@Deenobrown123·
Micron’s crazy growth! Here is some crazy shit to think about with Micron. I first have to talk about NVDAs explosive growth over the last few years to put Micron’s in perspective. I remember it well. NVDA was one of my largest positions since 2017. In January of 2024 I sold the rest of my Tesla to add to my NVDA because the growth ahead was obvious. And in that quarter ending January of 2024, NVDA posted a blowout earnings of over $12 billion dollars profit for the quarter. Its earnings were up over 700% year over year. The stock nearly traded up to $2 trillion dollar valuation 2 days after its earnings announcement in Feb of 2024. $2 trillion dollars for $12 billion profit in a quarter! Or a $48 billion dollar run rate! It took NVDA one more year to earn about $22 billion dollars in quarter ending Jan of 2025. At that time it traded around $3 trillion dollar valuation. Now here is the crazy thing about Micron. Micron made over $13 billion dollars this past quarter. Remember, that’s more than the $12 billion NVDA made in quarter ending 2024 when NVDA traded at $2 trillion valuation. Micron trades less than $500 billion dollar valuation today. It gets even more crazy: Micron has guided next quarter to make over $20 billion dollars profit for the quarter. So, Micron will make about as much profit next quarter as NVDA made in the quarter ending Jan 2025. One full year after NVDA made $12 billion dollars for the first time. Think about that. Micron will increase its earnings from one quarter to the next quarter roughly the same as NVDA did from one year to the next year. And everyone thought what NVDA did was crazy and unbelievable! It was crazy and unbelievable. So what is it considered now that Micron is doing it today in 2 quarters what took NVDA one year to do? And BTW, NVDA was considered cyclical before Ai! Here’s another thing to think about: many investors are stressed out about memory prices falling. Even though there are no signs of that. In fact, in the short term, it’s nearly impossible for prices to fall since supply is nowhere near demand. And it takes a long time to build new capacity. But here is something that no one is talking about. What happens if capacity slowly increases and prices remain high because demand is so high. And since NVDA has already said that they now have visibility to $1 trillion in sales instead of $500 billion. And don’t forget that future GPUs use 4x the amount of memory as today’s GPUs. So, you basically have 8x the demand over the next few years as today. So, memory capacity increases, but not enough to meet demand. Thus, not enough to lower prices. Now what the happens to Micron in that situation ? More sales due to increase capacity and the same margins! A 3rd grade math student can figure that next part out. Micron isn’t just a good buying opportunity today. It’s a generational buying opportunity. And I don’t really understand how so many people can miss it! It’s so obvious to me! I can assure that I will not miss it!
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Jäger@_tobiho·
@JonahLupton @Deenobrown123 Where do you see a $33 EPS estimate for 2029? I see 1 Analyst on Finviz that has $68.87 EPS estimate but 1 Analyst is not a consensus. In March 2025 NVIDIA EPS estimates were $7 for 2028, it's at $13 now. Micron 2027 est. were doubled since December 2025 with 30+ analysts
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
It’s crazy to see Micron and Hynix growing triple digits at 4-5x EPS… and like you said… no new supply anytime soon and demand will remain strong for at least the next few years. Sell side is looking for $MU earnings to drop by 67% over the next few years but I don’t think it’s going to happen… $100 EPS in FY2027 down to $33 EPS in FY2029 are the current estimates. Very curious to see how this plays out, I’d take the over on $33 EPS in FY2029.
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Jäger@_tobiho·
$MU Microns earnings are insane. The expectations were sky-high and they beat those expectations like nothing. Analysts are increasing their EPS forecasts almost daily and the report still tops them. 2027 EPS consensus is 76.77 right now. Yeah that's 5.8 P/E for 2027 at $450.
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Jäger@_tobiho·
4. Plan📝 - Accumulation starts at 10 P/E and below - Plan of 3-4 buys at 240dkk (~$37.80), 224dkk (~$35.50), 205dkk (~$32.10), 4th open - Multi year hold and enjoy the dividend
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Jäger@_tobiho·
3. Outlook🕘 - Will be a stable competitor with the new patent for oral Wegovy - Short term price drops are the opportunity to buy - First signs of recovery in the right directions will let stock price increase - Great investment R/R for the rest of the decade and beyond
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Jäger@_tobiho·
$NVO is on sale - at least in my opinion.. This is a scenario 1 Investment in my book. Let me explain: - solid company that struggles in short term - market overreacts and prices get "too low" - EPS projections to full recovery in 2 years - 4% dividend p.a. at these prices 🧵⬇️
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Jäger@_tobiho·
@ChartsRUs0 market is front-running prices on BE right now. Outlooks on coming years are promising but already overpriced even with future years estimates. So not a SNDK or MU type stock right now. I'm looking for strong value and I'm terrible in predicting stocks with just hopes and dreams
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Charts R Us
Charts R Us@ChartsRUs0·
$BE Needs a pull back now the question comes to will it give it before their earnings or will it be an aggressive sell off after? The longer it takes for a pull back, the harder the yank will be and the only people that will be burned is retail. Might have to play some credit spreads on this for May/June Cue up the butt hurt comments
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Jäger@_tobiho·
Big $MSFT $480 Million order on January 29th at close with confirmed OI. Could be long 525c & 625c + short 575c ? @ChartsRUs0 you know more about this? or somebody else? +Friday adds on 575c and 625c for another $110 Million premium
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Jäger@_tobiho·
@ChartsRUs0 @Fischernick23 order with conviciton after ER seems really high. I'm looking for a setup to time an entry. Having in mind though that there could be a catalyst coming with the acquisition
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Charts R Us
Charts R Us@ChartsRUs0·
@Fischernick23 @_tobiho It must be the same trader! The leftover 15k could be from people that followed them in. Still for the Sept lines, I would put this on a tier 1 bet size at $50M+.
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