A Green

@Cernovich x.com/aargreen/statu…

I wouldn't go near Anthropic or OpenAi if they IPO. This is VC firms cashing in on retail. Circular deal flow from pre-see to Series A-Z, then the Big Dump onto unsuspecting retail investors, they even want to change rules for force passive S&P 500 to buy stock post-IPO.

I truly don't understand how Anthropic and Open AI don't go to zero. They spend tens of billions training models... That are then replicated for 1/8th the price 1.5 months after. They have zero moat. Fable was supposed to be a breakthrough, now discount China models beat it.

Kimi K3 may be an important inflection point for AI. Potentially negative for Anthropic and OpenAI while being net positive for essentially every other company in the world. I mean that very literally. Although the real “Sputnik moment” would be an open-source frontier model that was also token efficient unlike Kimi K3 which is 50-70% more expensive to run than GPT 5.6 per Artificial Analysis. Rationale:   A world where there are only 2-3 dominant frontier labs with 90% inference margins is net negative for every other layer while being awesome for those 2-3 labs. Those labs would become monopsonies for power, data centers, semiconductors and hyperscalers and would obviously vertically integrate over time into all those layers while also completely subsuming the application/software layers.    Anything that lowers margins and increases competition at the model layer is good for every other AI layer: power, semiconductors, hyperscalers, neoclouds and yes even software.   This is why Jensen is so supportive of open-source. An open-source model requires the *exact* same amount of compute to run as a closed frontier model of similar size and architecture. Kimi K3 is roughly the same price as GPT 5.6 Terra on a per token basis, which actually suggests that it is less computationally efficient as I am sure that GPT 5.6 is priced to a higher margin than K3. And given that K3 is a token wastrel, i.e. token inefficient, it is significantly more expensive per task than GPT 5.6 and Grok 4.5, which are much more token efficient. Cost per token and token efficiency (i.e. intelligence density per token) are the drivers of intelligence per unit of cost. The winning AI companies will be those that offer the most intelligence per $ over time.   Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at every part of the infrastructure layer and is a godsend for software. This can happen either through open-source models like K3 at the frontier *or* having a vertically integrated model company like Meta, SpaceX or Google at the frontier. Both outcomes result in a lower margin % at the model layer as vertically integrated model companies don’t really care where the margin $ come from. This is why it was so painful for OpenAI and Anthropic when Google was right there with them from a model competitiveness perspective and why Grok 4.5 and Muse 1.1 were just as important as Kimi K3. 
The reason Kimi K3 is only *potentially* negative for Anthropic and OpenAI is 1) the @ericvishria point that the Claude and ChatGPT products and harnesses may be more important than their models today and 2) the hypothesis that they have much more advanced model checkpoints internally that are already being used for RSI. In the latter scenario, reaching RSI even a few months ahead of other labs might be enough to cement a permanent lead. Time will tell on both points. And likely fairly quickly. Caveat would be that since Kimi K3 is not token efficient and thereby actually more expensive than ChatGPT 5.6, we may need to see a more token efficient open-source model at the frontier or see Grok 5/Composer 4/Muse 2 at multiple points on the Pareto frontier for this potential risk to Anthropic and OpenAI to play out. And I am sure they will both vertically integrate as quickly as possible while continuing the product/harness strength they have shown over the last 8 months.

@TradexWhisperer PE funds are taking profits to make up for declining marks on their Openai and Anthropic private shares. The labs are cooked, but the hardware companies will thrive. The $MU dip is temporary. Buying opportunity

Two different realities. Someone just panic sold $MU at a single digit forward P/E. Meanwhile at the actual fabs, $MU $SKHY and Samsung engineers are shipping record chip volumes at record prices and loading wafers into cleanrooms to prepare for yet another record quarter and guide higher, and expanding fabs for record revenues in 2027 and beyond. One of these people knows what's happening. The other is staring at a screen.

@TradexWhisperer Hedge funds have been taking profits on their public stock holdings to paper over the coming losses of their private holdings (Anthropic and OpenAI).

$SKHY 4.87x. You gotta be kidding me. Even lower than $MU at 5.56x. At these levels, they can buy back the entire company in just ~4 years. Shortage until 2030. Pure madness.

@yacineMTB x.com/aargreen/statu…

If this holds up and they drop the weights, it will be like a nuclear bomb on anthropics IPO

The frontier labs are IBM in the 70s. Mainframes:centralization. PCs:Commoditized Models.

A year ago everyone agreed that the models would commodotize. Then, inexplicably, the frontier labs were valued at $1T and the greed blinders went on. Today proves that initial thesis correct. The value layer of AI is not in the models, and there are about to be a whole lot of SPV bag holders who will be pretty upset when Anthropic IPOs for <$400B in a few months.

If you're wondering why so many AI high flying stocks are selling off right now, it's because Wall St and hedge funds are getting margin called en masse on their private holdings of OpenAI and Anthropic. That $1T valuation is an albatross and Wall St is realizing the valuation is going to collapse before they can dump their junk on the public via IPO.

It’s happening folks… things accelerated more in the last 30 days from a dozen players than in the last year Open Source models are compounding Frontier Models are refining When open source hits robotics, self driving and life sciences things are going to get wild 2026 will be the year it happened WERE AT AGI IN 2026 SUPER INTELLIGENCE IS 2027-28 ITS GONNA GET VERY STRANGE

the smartest people aren’t information collectors. they’re pattern recognizers

🇺🇸🇺🇸 Hell yeah!! 🇺🇸🇺🇸

bets still on the table America, yet.

@altcap I can completely reverse engineer Brad's book only by his tweets. It's way more transparent than I think he realizes.

Fable is currently export controlled & rumors are that 5.6 will also be subject to an approval framework. Whatever jiu jitsu the Chinese are using to get us slow down our own frontier models while letting their models run free appears to be working. Who is capturing who? 🧐🇺🇸

@JakeKAllDay @zerohedge Cue the chorus of people who said the same copy and paste about starlink, 300 mile EVs, reusable rockets, etc...

@zerohedge Pure hype, unless he change the laws of physics satellites aren’t giving speed he needs indoors without terrestrial supplement. Could work as a niche backhaul play but I’m sure that’s not how he’ll sell it.

Elon going for the phone after all SpaceX Plans New Starlink Mobile Service for US Consumers: FT

Told ya. x.com/i/status/20702…

It's super obvious to me that the value in the AI stack isn't in the models, it's in the infrastructure. I am posting this for public accountability: Anthropic and OpenAI are the Yahoo and AOL of this cycle. If I were a betting man (actually I am), I'd bet that Anthropic has a market cap below 600B one month after IPO, and trends down from there. I'd also bet that OpenAI doesn't IPO any time soon. They missed their window. Frankly, I think Anthropic missed their window too but are too in too deep to reverse course.

@kevinxu End of quarter rebalancing. Don't sweat it.

can someone pls explain like i'm an idiot why everything is crashing again

@KobeissiLetter It's just end of quarter rebalancing. When a small number of stocks have had a huge run up, at the end of each quarter index funds have to trim those gains in order to rebalance the index. The sky is not falling. Chill out.

What just happened? In just 27 minutes, the Nasdaq 100 just fell -1,000 points and the S&P 500 erased -$1 TRILLION without any major headlines. The Nasdaq opened +1% higher then fell -3% between 9:30 AM and 9:57 AM ET. What does it all mean? Let us explain. (a thread)

@annieqyang I think Chamath says the same, taste is the rare commodity

The most dangerous person in the age of AI is someone who was mediocre at coding but has taste, and can now build anything