Pushkin.

Monday: Iran hit the last UAE bypass moving ~2M barrels/day. That clarifies everything and means: -- odds of a favorable U.S. deal ≈ 0% -- calm over the next 2 weeks <20%. -- Global power moving toward Iran My full analysis is at Escalation Trap substack

She’s lying

Marjorie Taylor Greene: 'Trump texted me that if my son gets killed, I deserve it because I was a traitor to him. I'd probably get put in jail if I released the texts. That's our president' MAGA was never about America. It was about one man's ego - and everyone who crosses him learns the hard way

Why can Israel have nuclear weapons, but Iran can’t? The rules of who gets nuclear weapons and who doesn’t👇🏼

China ALWAYS played the long game while politicians here sold our nation while they all harvest the profit.

Shawn. Every number in this post is wrong. Disgraceful to spread this propaganda to millions of people. "$118 oil." Brent closed at $101.73 on April 22. WTI is $92. The number doesn't exist. "25% of global oil supply." Hormuz carries 20-25% of seaborne oil trade. That is not global supply. Actual demand destruction from the closure is 4-5 million bpd, roughly 5% of global output. You're off by 5x. "Forced ships to pay in Chinese yuan." Two vessels have paid in yuan. Two. Out of 26 vetted IRGC transits since March 13. The toll accepts yuan, Bitcoin, and USDT. It's a toll booth... not a currency regime. "Gulf states dumping US treasuries." Show the TIC data. You can't, because it doesn't exist. State Street's April note... no evidence in flow data or price action of any dumping or shift in foreign ownership. "Bond markets selling off." 10-year moved from 4.17% at year-end to 4.26%. Nine basis points. That's a Tuesday. "Inflation surging." Headline CPI 3.3%, driven by a gas spike. Core CPI printed 2.6%, below expectations. Gasoline moved. The broader index stayed contained. "Deutsche Bank warning of a petroyuan era." One strategist. The operative word she used was "could." Franklin Templeton and Brown Brothers Harriman torched it within weeks. The yuan is 3% of global central bank reserves. China's capital account is closed. It's going nowhere near 50%. "Oil has only been sold in dollars since the 1970s." This is the Kissinger secret-treaty fable. No exclusivity agreement ever existed. Saudi Arabia accepted British pounds well into 1974. Oil trades in dollars because the Eurodollar market made dollars the deepest liquidity pool on earth by 1955, not because of a secret decree. This is the exact narrative template Russian and Chinese info ops have been seeding for ten years because it keeps Americans convinced the dollar is one headline away from collapse. It isn't. You're reaching Ro Khanna levels of retardation

Voting be like… You only get to choose from Bolsheviks or warmongering Zionists. Both of which are architects of the New World Order, in different ways. Pick your poison. There is only an ILLUSION OF CHOICE.

Where is the lie?

It is being leaked that Saturday Trump wanted the nuclear codes to bomb Iran and was told no. I question this but time will tell.

Just spoke to 2,000 Wall Street Bankers They all told me that tomorrow will be a BLACK MONDAY Crash of epic proportions There is nothing that can be done to reverse this

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗘𝗖𝗗 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲. On March 4, the OECD released its Global Debt Report 2026. Buried in Chapter 1 is the single most important number for global macro this year, and finance X has not discussed it once. Gross borrowing by central governments in emerging market and developing economies crossed $4 trillion in 2025, up from roughly $3 trillion in 2024. That is a 33% year-over-year increase in sovereign issuance from EMDEs in a single year. The OECD area as a whole hit record highs on both bond issuance and outstanding volume, with refinancing requirements accounting for most of the gross borrowing. Here is what that means structurally. We are watching the largest sovereign bond supply glut in modern history collide with the end of accommodative monetary policy. Under quantitative tightening, central banks have stepped back from debt markets. Retail and foreign investors have stepped in as marginal buyers. Those buyers are more price sensitive and more focused on relative yields. The OECD’s exact language was that this combination has “contributed to higher term premia and steeper yield curves.” Translation. The bid for long-dated sovereign debt is getting thinner at exactly the moment issuance is hitting records. That is why UK 30-year gilts sit at 5.12%, US 10-year at 4.42%, Colombian TES bonds above 11%, South African RSA at 10.45%. Those are not isolated moves. They are the expression of a structural supply-demand imbalance at the long end that has no precedent in the post-GFC era. The positioning response from sovereigns themselves is the tell. Per OECD data, many countries are rebalancing issuance toward shorter maturities to limit exposure to higher long-term borrowing costs. This increases refinancing risk downstream but is the only way to get bonds out the door today. The US Treasury has been doing this for two years. The UK, France, and Italy are following. Japan is the outlier that has not yet started. When Japan capitulates, the move gets violent. What this means for every other asset. Equity multiples get compressed because discount rates rise structurally, not cyclically. Gold absorbs flow as investors question whether sovereign debt is actually the safe haven it was marketed as for 40 years. Bitcoin gets a monetary-debasement bid that has nothing to do with adoption narratives. The dollar weakens against hard assets but strengthens against EM currencies as refinancing risk compounds. The specific number to watch. OECD interest expenditure as a share of GDP in 2025 is near the highest level of the last decade across the OECD area and individual countries. Interest payments are eating a growing share of every budget. That is what a sovereign debt spiral looks like before it becomes one. The IMF cut 2026 growth to 3.1% and raised inflation to 4.4%. Layer that on top of record issuance at elevated yields. Growth down, supply up, demand thinner. This is the setup where bond market accidents happen. The 2022 UK gilt crisis hit with less stress than what the OECD is describing right now. If sovereigns globally are all selling short-duration paper to avoid long-end yields, who buys the long end when central banks are tightening?

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗘𝗖𝗗 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲. On March 4, the OECD released its Global Debt Report 2026. Buried in Chapter 1 is the single most important number for global macro this year, and finance X has not discussed it once. Gross borrowing by central governments in emerging market and developing economies crossed $4 trillion in 2025, up from roughly $3 trillion in 2024. That is a 33% year-over-year increase in sovereign issuance from EMDEs in a single year. The OECD area as a whole hit record highs on both bond issuance and outstanding volume, with refinancing requirements accounting for most of the gross borrowing. Here is what that means structurally. We are watching the largest sovereign bond supply glut in modern history collide with the end of accommodative monetary policy. Under quantitative tightening, central banks have stepped back from debt markets. Retail and foreign investors have stepped in as marginal buyers. Those buyers are more price sensitive and more focused on relative yields. The OECD’s exact language was that this combination has “contributed to higher term premia and steeper yield curves.” Translation. The bid for long-dated sovereign debt is getting thinner at exactly the moment issuance is hitting records. That is why UK 30-year gilts sit at 5.12%, US 10-year at 4.42%, Colombian TES bonds above 11%, South African RSA at 10.45%. Those are not isolated moves. They are the expression of a structural supply-demand imbalance at the long end that has no precedent in the post-GFC era. The positioning response from sovereigns themselves is the tell. Per OECD data, many countries are rebalancing issuance toward shorter maturities to limit exposure to higher long-term borrowing costs. This increases refinancing risk downstream but is the only way to get bonds out the door today. The US Treasury has been doing this for two years. The UK, France, and Italy are following. Japan is the outlier that has not yet started. When Japan capitulates, the move gets violent. What this means for every other asset. Equity multiples get compressed because discount rates rise structurally, not cyclically. Gold absorbs flow as investors question whether sovereign debt is actually the safe haven it was marketed as for 40 years. Bitcoin gets a monetary-debasement bid that has nothing to do with adoption narratives. The dollar weakens against hard assets but strengthens against EM currencies as refinancing risk compounds. The specific number to watch. OECD interest expenditure as a share of GDP in 2025 is near the highest level of the last decade across the OECD area and individual countries. Interest payments are eating a growing share of every budget. That is what a sovereign debt spiral looks like before it becomes one. The IMF cut 2026 growth to 3.1% and raised inflation to 4.4%. Layer that on top of record issuance at elevated yields. Growth down, supply up, demand thinner. This is the setup where bond market accidents happen. The 2022 UK gilt crisis hit with less stress than what the OECD is describing right now. If sovereigns globally are all selling short-duration paper to avoid long-end yields, who buys the long end when central banks are tightening?

At this time in history, mankind has more cameras recording everything that’s happening all over the world yet people are kept in the dark, not shown actual war footage and the truth of what is really happening in Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza. War used to be broadcasted on the nightly news now you are only told by the talking heads what is happening and what you are supposed to think about it. Most of the videos we see are from people’s cell phone videos that they managed to post on the internet somehow and even then many times it gets censored. And many of the war journalists that tried to cover the atrocities in Gaza were killed by the IDF so that the world wouldn’t know the horrors. Yesterday, Trump announced at a campaign event in Arizona that he ended more wars, claiming Israel would stop bombing Lebanon yet soon after he bragged, Israel started bombing Lebanon again. Trump also claimed the Strait of Hormuz is open and China is happy as he looks forward to their meeting. Yet overnight, Iran closed the Strait and has fired on multiple ships. There is a giant gap between the President’s Truth Social post and speeches and actual real truth and this must be rectified. The most concerning part is actual events contradict the President and suggest that he has lost control over his war in Iran. Trump is not a peace president nor is he a Truth teller.