Adam Corlett

I don't want to help Musk and therefore Trump in even the smallest way right now. If you'd be interested in my thoughts and analysis, especially on the Budget, I'm on Bluesky and would love to follow your takes there too. bsky.app/profile/adamco…

Winter Fuel Payment policy choices just aren't very important compared to the State Pension. It looks like the 2025 triple lock uprating could - by itself - be bigger in real terms than the loss of Winter Fuel Payments.

@PaulBivand @JP_Biz @resfoundation @hcslaughter_ That's interesting - thanks both! Will investigate at some point if possible

@JP_Biz @adamcorlett @resfoundation @hcslaughter_ Working out why NI LFS doesn't seem to have the same response rate problems seems key. A series of cheese-paring changes to GB LFS data collection looks important. As well as weighting as discussed.

New @resfoundation @hcslaughter_ exploration of why the number of workers in the Labour Force Survey has not grown like payroll/tax data would suggest: resolutionfoundation.org/publications/m…

How could this be resolved? - ONS will revise up pop'n weights, helping with emp numbers but probably not rates - In 2025 we should see if the TLFS gives different trends - HMRC & ONS should produce an admin-based employment rate - DWP can try this too - Link LFS & admin records

Why is the black line so different from the purple line? The simplest answer would be that the Labour Force Survey is wrong (its response rate has fallen dramatically). We can't be conclusive, but the employment rate may well be higher than thought – and inactivity lower

@DuncanStott @Sam_Dumitriu The nanorods could obscure the view from Richmond Park

@Sam_Dumitriu What's the argument against? Cost to taxpayers? Or something something maintain its natural state?

Looking forward to the debates in the 2050s over whether we should leave Mars untouched or radically change its climate to make it suitable for human habitation.

Want an incredible job shaping the future of UK economic & social policy and leading a wonderfully talented team? Seriously, there's not a better job out there. Come and lead @resfoundation. jobs.economist.com/job/34939/chie…

One of many odd things about Winter Fuel Payments is that presumably most pensioners are not even spending more on fuel in the winter anymore, as bills will be smoothed over the year

This is very welcome: no more situations with zero future departmental spending plans

One way of looking at the fiscal situation is that the £20bn-a-year National Insurance cuts weren't affordable and now need to be funded

Trump: “Get out and vote just this time. You won't have to do it anymore. Four more years it will be fixed. It'll be fine. You won't have to vote anymore...In four years you don't have to vote again. We'll have it fixed so good your not gonna have to vote.”

Angela Rayner needs to get a Sphere built

The Government has a new ambition to reach an 80% employment rate. Slight problem: I don't think the ONS can accurately tell you what the current employment rate is or which direction it's moved in

First the Schumer leak, now Pelosi. "Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately told President Joe Biden in a recent conversation that polling shows that the president cannot defeat Donald Trump and that Biden could destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House in November if he continues seeking a second term, according to four sources briefed on the call" cnn.com/2024/07/17/pol…

@ralph_palmer Given the ZEV mandate & ban, what's the argument for continued tax incentives beyond the next few years?

Not a criticism, guys, but hopefully one day male MPs won't all need to wear the same outfit!

Nice thread. Pay-per-mile is needed for new EVs - but not older cars - and every year of delay will make this harder. Also see our @resfoundation report: economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/where-…

Over 4 million votes for incomplete interest on central bank reserves

Labour have exceeded Attlee's 1945 seat total of 393 (in a slightly smaller Commons) and Thatcher's 397 in 1983