Arjan de Groot

Scientists confirm Earth is slowly heading toward Its next Ice Age. A new study from Cardiff University has unraveled the mystery behind Earth’s 100,000-year glaciation cycles by examining deep-sea fossil records. The research reveals that the onset of an ice age is primarily triggered by changes in the planet’s axial tilt (obliquity). While the end of a glacial period requires a precise combination of this tilt and Earth’s orbital wobble (precession), the shift into a new cooling phase follows a remarkably predictable natural rhythm. According to the findings, Earth is already on a gradual trajectory toward its next major ice age, which is expected to begin in roughly 11,000 years — if left undisturbed by human influence. However, this ancient orbital clock now faces an unprecedented disruption: anthropogenic climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions have driven global temperatures far beyond historical norms, potentially overriding or delaying the natural cooling signal for thousands of years, or even longer. The study highlights the delicate interplay between long-term orbital mechanics and modern human activity. Understanding these deep-time climate rhythms is essential for better predicting future climate patterns and appreciating the profound scale at which human emissions are reshaping Earth’s geological destiny. [Barker, S., et al. (2025). Distinct roles for precession, obliquity, and eccentricity in Pleistocene 100-kyr glacial cycles. Science, 387(eadp3491). DOI: 10.1126/science.adp3491]