Ajay Subramanian

New $NBIS counter sentiment trade The $IREN structure seems to be working perfectly, so I’m adding another one-this time on $NBIS that expires on Jan 17(37d): Sell 1 70 put Buy 1 90 call Sell 3 120 calls I pay $1.25 per spread. My logic is the same: there’s a real business here, but it’s been heavily sold off. Sentiment is washed out, momentum is gone, and upside enthusiasm looks weak. So I’m setting what I call a trap in case momentum starts to recover. The stock has already taken a deep hit, and I find it hard to envision another 25% decline in the next month which is where I sold my put-though I’d be a happy buyer there if it happens. On the upside, I only start losing if $NBIS rallies more than 44% over the next 37 days, which I see as highly improbable given current conditions. I like this trade. Stop-loss: -$3. Once again, this is all about understanding probabilities. The odds of me making money are significantly higher than the odds of me losing money. I’m comfortable taking the stock if it drops another 25%, and I’m equally comfortable taking the risk that it might spike 44% in a month-because statistically, structurally, and sentiment-wise, that scenario is far less likely. I believe that as these names evolve from dream companies into real companies, momentum should naturally subside in the process. The story fades, the narrative cools, and with it the volatility premium collapses. Hype gets replaced by execution, and markets stop pricing these stocks like lottery tickets and start pricing them like businesses.

My 11 year old daughters are getting a kick out of my follower count 😂 I told them I'd take them out for Ice Cream 🍨 when I get to 10,000!

I shared this note with the Washington Post team this morning: I’m writing to let you know about a change coming to our opinion pages. We are going to be writing every day in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets. We’ll cover other topics too of course, but viewpoints opposing those pillars will be left to be published by others. There was a time when a newspaper, especially one that was a local monopoly, might have seen it as a service to bring to the reader’s doorstep every morning a broad-based opinion section that sought to cover all views. Today, the internet does that job. I am of America and for America, and proud to be so. Our country did not get here by being typical. And a big part of America’s success has been freedom in the economic realm and everywhere else. Freedom is ethical — it minimizes coercion — and practical — it drives creativity, invention, and prosperity. I offered David Shipley, whom I greatly admire, the opportunity to lead this new chapter. I suggested to him that if the answer wasn’t “hell yes,” then it had to be “no.” After careful consideration, David decided to step away. This is a significant shift, it won’t be easy, and it will require 100% commitment — I respect his decision. We’ll be searching for a new Opinion Editor to own this new direction. I’m confident that free markets and personal liberties are right for America. I also believe these viewpoints are underserved in the current market of ideas and news opinion. I’m excited for us together to fill that void. Jeff