AA

The characteristic thing about previous cycles is there was essentially no baseline/core revenue to protect from demand falling off a cliff. EPS went neg at some points. This is a materially different scenario that warrants a higher baseline fwd PE than the (out of cycle) historical average given the floor on the downside.

@Merridew__ @LucretianDelta Fuck serenity though

@Merridew__ @LucretianDelta Things change!

In the end, just a question of if you believe there is a true structural supply/demand imbalance. Not arguing the cyclicality of a cyclical (haha). The question is, with the LTAs for 5 year periods, CHIPS Act benefits, likely buyback program and div announcements (instead of going crazy on capex), can we really argue they are shooting themselves in the foot as usual?

Sure, but if you lock in half of your revenue for the next 5 yrs at about the current price, the floor is undeniably structurally higher. People keep posting bear porn on a <-70% decline in the stock when Even at current prices you’d be paying quite the cheap multiple through 2030 rev and eps. It’s a bit tough to talk about but the details of the LTAs from what I’ve seen are fairly wild

@dampedspring @mandalapore Their APs hedging close, probably off by a decent bit on target hedges

@mandalapore Unclear variance. I knew it was going to be messy but was messier than expected.

Leveraged etf revenge left a mark on the close. 20BN net sold for the rebalance dominated by semis and NDX

@ContrarianCurse This is your view and you decided to short $MU in the 600s? Give me a fucking break Either your view is BS, or you’re completely retarded, or you need to explain more

I basically think that the reflexive loop of AI / internet attention and virality is crafting our future Attention is all you need on a stock

@Merridew__ Try Notes from Underground. Dostoevsky.

@Merridew__ I’m reporting you to the SEC for manipulating the market down

@ContrarianCurse Are u still short MU?

Hard mo themes: mem, cpu, equipment (inspection esp), labor, power semis Fading: photonics, neos, gpu still stale emerging: consumables, eda

$AAOI Can sell the May 8th C200 for 10$. If great guidance, stock blows past 200 from psychological effect of round numbers, so sell above and get forced to buy at 200 If guidance disappoints you just pocket the juicy premium

@ContrarianCurse You still short $MU ?

Lots of these big name fund managers squatted on $MCO and the likes at 45-50x earnings cause of "business quality" Yea but at that price you essentially are just holding a pile of duration and rates went from 0 to 4.5%

@ContrarianCurse Margin called yet?

$MU there is no other stock I get more hate on even half suggesting bearishness than this one. You guys need to fucking chill. I just made 75% in under 8 weeks and excuse me for having a little caution when they are about to report mid 80s gross margin and we are already 10x previous cycle peak for EPS ITS DIFFERENT THIS TIME Yea I see that, hence the $105 in EPS, you aren’t really Sherlock Holmes there anymore

buying ai bottlenecks you can’t pronounce in emerging markets you’ve never heard of

@therealmcnair Link? Dont see in spring release

@alainarbitrage @therealmcnair

Maintain outside leverage

@Merridew__ Capex growth is slowing should be your takeaway

@volisdead People are too backward looking. Cyclicals are going to be cyclicals but when a new, revolutionary technology movement comes in with never seen before growth and supply chain needs, you need to ask yourself if your assumptions on the industry need to change.

Can someone who is smart at this please explain to me why memory stocks are still so cheap on an NTM basis versus every other pocket of semis?

@MannyAngel61761 @TradingThomas3 Why do you think it’s called “month end” selling?

@TradingThomas3 Are they gonna dump on retail this week . Or wait for cpi . Or maybe be extra patient and wait for a horrible print in June . At these highs market is dumping soon . It cant take a 4.2-4.5% print in June .

Goldman Sachs says pension funds may sell roughly $25B in equities for month-end rebalancing, the largest non-quarterly rebalance on record.

@Merridew__ Or…iren