Alan Moreira

People have been telling the “one day investors will dump the U.S. boyfriend” story for a long time. Tyler’s point is simple: the fiscal situation is a mess, but if markets were looking for a new boyfriend--prices would tell us. x.com/cspan/status/2…

Everyone's warning about a US fiscal crisis. So why is the 10-year yield only 4%?

@achenfinance @GeoffreyHuntley submit your final output at humanxaifinance.org. Let's see how it stacks up against other human and AI processes.

In case you missed it! @TylersMuir lays out for @DavidBeckworth why QE matters.

Reminder: Applications for the @MFRProgram 2026 Modeling Climate-Dynamics Workshop for Young Scholars are due February 1, 2026. The workshop will be held at @UChicago on May 27–29, 2026. Details: tinyurl.com/2ee2cymz #EconTwitter #climatemodeling #climatechange #macroeconomics @BeckerFriedman

Join us tomorrow if you're interested in using LLMs for measurement or prediction

Very happy that our paper received the DFA Prize for Best Paper in the Journal of Finance. The literature on wealth inequality has been highly influential in public debates, yet it largely ignores a key way households save over the life cycle: Social Security. We show that including the fair value of accrued benefits in wealth substantially mutes the rise in wealth inequality since 1989. Its importance has grown dramatically over the past three decades. In 1989, Social Security represented only 26.0% of the wealth of the bottom 90%. In 2019, this percentage rose to 49.8%. We cannot understand household balance sheets without paying attention to Social Security.

I couldn't be more excited to share that submissions to 𝐉𝐅: 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 & 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 are finally open! Insights are short (<7,000 words) high quality pieces. Perspectives outline promising future research directions. afajof.org/jfip-submissio…

took over as head of the bcb two weeks later. It did became a floating exchange rate after that so maybe not so terrible after all.

This makes me think of Chico Lopez “Banda diagonal endogena “ — endogenous diagonal band — that lead to very rapid devaluation of the Brazilian real that only stoped once Arminio Fraga

!!!!

Adam Solomon and I are seeking a highly skilled and motivated predoctoral research assistant to work with us at NYU Stern. This is a full-time position aimed at candidates interested in an economics or finance PhD. Faculty, please tell your students to apply! Link here: apply.interfolio.com/176733

totally agree with Val, but I would put it differently: the fact that prices respond to announcement of purchases and not the purchases themselves tell us that these effects are not about short-term plumbing frictions. Whether it is "demand" depends on your identification

“Causation does not imply variation.” — an important warning by @tylersmuir, which prompted thoughtful comments by @JohnHCochrane on the causal effects of selling pressure in stock markets. 🔗 grumpy-economist.com/p/causation-do… Unfortunately, John slips into the same fallacy... 🧵

While we’re genuinely excited about our next steps, Rochester will always hold a special place in our hearts. Thank you, Simon and University of Rochester .

We also loved living in Rochester: – The beautiful lakes in summer – The snowy (very snowy) winters – A great public school system – Music from Eastman (though I did go to way too many Nutcrackers...) - Waking up 30 minutes before boarding - The Erie Canal!

After 8 amazing years at the University of Rochester / Simon (simon.rochester.edu), today is my last day at this incredible institution. It’s been a transformative place for me and my family, and I’ll always be grateful for how warmly we were welcomed and supported.

Happening now. Tyler presenting our work with Val the Atlanta Fed Financial Marker conference youtube.com/live/h4h1lkgdL…