alan manning

Exclusive from @MaxKendix Rachel Reeves could be forced to raise taxes to make up for a shortfall of billions of pounds caused by a collapse in immigration numbers, experts have warned Net migration is collapsing. Forecasts show that net migration could reach as low as zero or even negative by the end of the year On one level that’s good news for the government. But on the other it could drastically hit tax revenues Charlie McCurdy, an economist at the Labour-linked Resolution Foundation think tank, said: “If predictions that net migration to the UK turns negative by next Christmas — with more people leaving the country than arriving — there would be serious consequences for the public finances “The OBR has previously estimated that a sustained 200,000 reduction in net migration could chip as much as £20 billion off the government’s budget by the end of the decade — even more costly to the Exchequer than cutting 2p from the basic rate of income tax. “If an unexpectedly sharp drop in migration does materialise, it would solve one political challenge for the government but create a new economic one.” Net migration stands at 204,000 for the year to June 2025, down from a peak of 944,000 in the year ending March 2023 In November, the OBR forecast that the figure would be 262,000 this year, but experts say it is far more likely to be substantially lower The predicted drop is partly down to lower numbers of work visas granted after the rules were tightened by the last government. The number of health and social care visas halved last year and visas for skilled workers dropped by a third But an increase in emigration could have a significant impact. One is the predicted impact of the stricter rules on indefinite leave to remain (ILR) announced by Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary thetimes.com/article/6763d0…

Shameless self-publicity. My new book "Why Immigration Policy Is Hard And How To Make It Better" is out. politybooks.com/bookdetail?boo…