SarautiyPrecise Market Analysis

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So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)

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@aleabitoreddit My Transactions ⬇️

I've always maintained $POET can get designed out and likely would in a few years for $MRVL. Especially as hyperscalers tend to vertically integrate upstream, I just didn't expect it so soon. For me to be bullish, $POET would have needed to multi-source to multiple hyperscaler supply chains rather than just Marvell. However, this goes this show: There's a reason why all the Laser companies are worth tens of billions. Laser design and fab is much more difficult than companies like $POET buying the lasers to package them. If $MRVL were completely reliant on $POET, they wouldn't break off the engagement despite the NDA, so it does feel like an excuse. Poet was just the fastest time to market given it's already designed into Celestial, but serves more as a Gen-1 bridge. Regardless all the hyperscalers require a light source (which is much much more difficult to vertically integrate): And after $NVDA went and bought out allocation for $LITE, $COHR... There's not many laser suppliers left aside from $SIVE. There's a lot of nuances markets might miss, but packaging layers are different than laser layers. It's highly likely now $MRVL just buys lasers directly from Sivers (which is even more bullish) given they already match Celestial specifications. And also highly likely Marvell multi-sources with $MTSI and $LITE (if there's any capacity left).

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@aleabitoreddit My Transactions ⬇️

Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.

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@aleabitoreddit My Transactions ⬇️

Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE. It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap. But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon. Laser IP is much, much more complex. There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.

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