alen.hl

@ccrryyppttonob Can you explain the logic behind “hype might be overvalued” thought while tokens like eth, xrp, bnb, sol, trx exist?

@Dereek70 The deposit fund button is broken

@shinon_non02 ありがとうね😊

退勤しました💖 初めましてのお兄さんありがとうございます😊 今日はしのんが先生になりました😂😂

@ThePumponomics Out of be early or be contrarian you chose to be retarded

I was looking at making a massive allocation into $HYPE for the next cycle. I decided against it. The product is great. The coin is great. But the math for a 10x is harder than alternatives. Here is my breakdown👇 My problem with HYPE is that it's too consensus. Everyone loves it. It's only down 45% from its ATH. When SOL and ETH went 30x+ on their runs, they started from -95% from ATH. People were being mocked for buying them for weeks/months. In my experience in crypto, if buying for a long term hold and your entry feels warm and comfortable then usually something is up. Could hype be the exception? Sure, it definitely could be. But let's look at the numbers. $8B Market Cap. $31B FDV. That gap means there is a massive wave of dilution coming. To hit my target of a 10x return, $HYPE would need to reach $80B Market Cap BEFORE it spits out 75% of the coins which are currently locked. This is a huge headwind. For context, $SOL was the undisputed leader of the last run and peaked at a $150B Market Cap. Literally everything went right for it too. My philosophy is: Be early, or be contrarian... and then be right. When you are both, that is where the 10x opportunities live. Unfortunately, I don’t believe $HYPE is the best oppty to hit that goal. Best of luck to everyone in it. Great project, but just not for me at this price. If for some reason it goes to $15ish and i have cash left I'll consider it.

@smartestmoney @HyperliquidX Hyperliquid

“FTX tried 24/7 equity perps and there was no demand” “HIP-3 will disappoint” The same people that said that are now trading 24/7 markets on Hyperliquid. HIP-3 Daily OI ATH. Hyperliquid.

@katexbt >Act now to make money. why don't you let people collect beacuse they just want to fking collect

If you are into trading cards, you NEED to have this YuGiOh release on your radar. Act now to make money. They just released a new pack in the OCG (Japanese) Here's why its important: 1. This is the first time they started "overframes" - cards that look like this. 2. They are SERIALIZED now too (bottom left corner), the rare limited print ones in the set Not only is this new to YGO, but this means funny numbers (67, 69, 420 if we get to 3 digits) will go for obscene numbers. 3. These cards will be CENSORED in the TCG, I mean look at the cleveage. By default, historically, uncensored cards always go for more. Worth looking into it.

@EthSbrio @mlmabc @zoomerfied He is also paid by your mother btw

@mlmabc @zoomerfied Mlmabc is paid by hyperliquid

[ ZOOMER ] LIGHTER OPENS UP DEPOSIT METHODS, NOWS USERS TO DEPOSIT VIA CARD, COINBASE, AND OTHER CHAINS: SITE

@pondermint ah alright your one of those people who want another aidrop, gotcha

@pondermint they unlocked 140k hype in 1 month. is this post a joke or what

HYPE wont go bull until: Team mutes their unlocks by deferrals, OTC sales and long term clarity. They deserve every penny but the market won’t absorb all those tokens over the next 2 years+ be at new highs. Points and or drop to users. We are relatively constrained by the total crypto market bear dread. Team doesn’t need or have to do anything tbh but there is no mega HYPE bull without the above. Portfolio Margin enabled is the foundation for HYPE-maxing …. Soon. 3 months or a year idk, but all this happens and $100 HYPE is a lock. We will eat the market share in a bear. Meanwhile just enjoy the greatest product in crypto.

@Sterling_hl Welcome!

Excited to finally announce that I’ve joined Hyperliquid Labs to help with BD and partnerships. My initial focus will be expanding builder code integrations by working with developers globally. > Hyperliquid offers liquidity on par with or deeper th an CEXs that's available to any app via builder codes. > Access crypto and tradfi perps via HIP-3. > No partnership agreements. > Fully customizable fee model. When generational founders like @chameleon_jeff and @iliensinc ask you to come help them build something you drop everything and run towards it. Hyperliquid

@mesky_ 0 chance of this happening unfortunately

Non-zero odds this runs on Hyperliquid rails

@bebankless @jayendra_jog hype to 9 you heard it here first

@alenbtcusd @jayendra_jog difference between these 2 coins is that 1 of them has taken out their lows 👀

honestly surprised that hyperliquid didnt pull this off first, they have ~4 billion of USDC

@bebankless @jayendra_jog .hls too busy celebrating this trash coin

@jayendra_jog they're too busy coping like this lmao x.com/0xLoris/status…

@coingecko Hyperliquid?

NEWS: Popular stock trading platform IBKR (Interactive Brokers) integrates Coinbase Derivatives to offer crypto futures.

@Tareeq_23 Update on the plan?

$HYPE: I know alot of people wont like this plan as it doesnt fit the narrative right now. Howeverrr, this plan is if we dip sub 70k on btc. Hype is one of the few alts that i think will be around for some time so if we do get great discounted prices on hype then id be partial to a lil accumulation of it for long term. 15-11 bucks would be my accumulation range

6 Hyperliquid

@GuthixHL Did you post this in a place where the team can read it?

The time has come to replace HIP-2 with a dynamic liquidity provision that allows for user deposits 🕵️‍♂️ how do we beat AMMs on CLOB for exotic illiquid pairs? the fate of the Hyperliquid spot markets depend on it.

@Ripple @HyperliquidX Welcome to Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid

Hyperliquid, meet Ripple Prime: on.ripple.com/4ke7TzL We’re now enabling institutions to access onchain derivatives liquidity through @HyperliquidX in a streamlined and secure way. Customers can also efficiently cross-margin crypto with all asset classes supported by our prime brokerage platform. Institutions, welcome to the onchain economy.

@ibuyrugs @grok is this good bad for hyperliquid?

my thoughts on hype valuation: "let's actually run the numbers on HYPE instead of vibing because i'm tired of seeing 'fundamentals are strong' tweets with zero math, zero understanding of competitive dynamics, zero comprehension of how exchange businesses actually work over time, and zero appreciation for what valuations actually mean in the most aggressive scenario, you need ~30% annual returns to justify holding through 2030. i think the most aggressive assumption of true circulating supply is ~60% of FDV (rest is locked/team/future incentives/reserved for ecosystem development/waiting to be distributed through future airdrop programs), so we're at ~$20bn market cap today assuming no dilution from future airdrop programs or team unlocks or ecosystem grants or whatever else might hit circulation. you need to believe the expected value of HYPE is $56bn by EOY 2030 to own it at current prices. that's not a vibe. that's not hopium. that's basic arithmetic. 30% CAGR from $20bn for 5 years gets you to $56bn. if you're holding HYPE at today's price and planning to hold for five years, you are implicitly making this bet whether you realize it or not. putting aside the 25-50% probability it somehow dies between now and 2030 (regulatory issues that kill decentralized perps entirely, oracle manipulation that destroys trust, competition destroying the moat, team implosion, technical failure, smart contract exploit that drains funds, regulatory crackdown on decentralized derivatives, China banning it, US declaring it illegal, insurance fund getting drained, liquidation cascade that breaks the system, whatever), you're assuming it gets to roughly Coinbase's current valuation but as a pure perps exchange with higher margin profile and zero regulatory clarity and no fiat on-ramps and no institutional custody and no actual legal protection. the market of non-fundamental analysts will point to the insane fee revenue, the low team count, the 80%+ margins, the elegant oracle design, the superior UX, the clean tokenomics as bullish signals. 'they're doing $800mm annualized revenue with like 15 people!' 'the margins are incredible!' 'no VCs dumping on retail!' 'no token unlock schedule that bleeds price!' 'the oracle design is genius!' 'the liquidation engine is better than CEXs!' and sure, all of that is impressive. genuinely impressive. legitimately impressive. the team has executed incredibly well and built something that actually works and actually has product-market fit and actually generates real revenue from real users doing real trading. but having 80%+ margins on $800mm annualized revenue isn't actually a GOOD thing for future defensibility - it's a massive flashing neon sign visible from space that screams 'please come compete with me, there are hundreds of millions in profit just sitting here for the taking, you don't even need to be that good, you just need to be 80% as good and charge 20% less on fees'. not arguing it's necessarily overvalued right now, not saying you should sell, just saying that high margins aren't inherently bullish for long-term durability. they're actually a massive invitation for competition. they're actually evidence that the market is underserved and there's room for new entrants. in every market in history, high margins attract competition. that's not a controversial statement. that's not a hot take. that's just how capitalism works. if there's a business doing 80% margins, other businesses will enter that market and compete those margins down. the only question is how long it takes and how defensible the incumbent's position is. so the question becomes: what's the terminal margin for HYPE in 2030 if it succeeds, what's the success case actually worth in dollar terms, and what's the multiple on 2030 earnings that you can justify paying today given the risk profile and competitive dynamics? let's say there's 25% probability of complete failure (gets regulated away, oracle gets exploited and they can't recover trust, team fucks up and ships a critical bug, better competitor emerges and takes all the users, market structure changes make perps less attractive, DeFi narrative dies and everything goes to zero, whatever). that's probably conservative honestly - most crypto projects have way higher than 25% failure rate over five year periods - but let's be generous. in the remaining 75% of scenarios where HYPE doesn't die, where it survives and continues to operate and maintains some version of its current market position, it needs to get to $75bn market cap to justify today's $56bn expected value calculation ($56bn / 0.75 = $75bn in success scenarios). that's the math. if you think the probability of failure is higher than 25%, say 40%, then you need even higher terminal value in success cases - you'd need $93bn market cap in 2030 to justify $56bn EV today. for a mature exchange business with real competition and stable market share, the correct earnings multiple is 20-25x. this is not a guess. this is what actual exchange businesses trade at in public markets. look at the comps: CME Group trades at 22x forward earnings, Intercontinental Exchange at 24x, CBOE at 20x, Nasdaq at 25x. even Coinbase at its most generous bull case trades at like 25-30x and that's WITH the regulatory moat of being the only fully compliant US on-ramp and WITH the custody business and WITH the staking revenue and WITH the brand recognition of being the 'safe' place for institutions. let's be extremely aggressive and say HYPE trades at 25x earnings in 2030 because crypto people are willing to pay premiums for 'decentralization' or whatever narrative wins, because there's still some growth left in the business, because the crypto market has matured and people value these businesses more highly. that's generous but let's give it to you. let's also say they maintain 50% net margins in 2030. that's extremely high end for any exchange once competition actually arrives and they have to spend on user retention, new features, insurance funds, compliance (even decentralized exchanges will face regulatory pressure and will need to spend on lawyers and lobbying and maybe KYC infrastructure), marketing, liquidity incentives, maybe team expansion, whatever. for context, Coinbase does like 30-35% net margins in good years. CME does 60% but they have regulatory moats that literally prevent competition and century-old brand recognition and relationships with every institution on earth. Binance probably does 40-50% but they also do everything (spot, futures, options, staking, launchpad, NFTs, everything) and have massive regulatory uncertainty hanging over them and CZ went to prison. traditional brokerages like Schwab or Fidelity do like 20-30% margins. so 50% for HYPE in a competitive 2030 landscape is GENEROUS. it's assuming they maintain margins higher than almost every comparable business while somehow also growing revenue 7.5x. at 25x P/E on $75bn market cap, you need $3bn in annual net earnings. at 50% net margins, that's $6bn in annual revenue. that's the requirement. that's what has to happen for the math to work. they're doing $800mm annualized right now based on recent run rate (was over $1bn at the peak a few months ago when meme coins were ripping and volatility was insane and everyone was aping into perps). so you need 7.5x revenue growth over 5 years while MAINTAINING 50% margins in the face of competition. not 7.5x revenue growth in a vacuum where they're the only player - 7.5x revenue growth while competitors are actively trying to eat your lunch, while new entrants are launching with better tech, while CEXs are improving their offerings, while regulations are changing, while user preferences are evolving. i'm giving you extremely aggressive assumptions here. i'm being generous on every variable. i'm assuming high multiples, high margins, relatively low probability of failure, continued growth in crypto perps market, no major regulatory headwinds, no technical failures. and i'm partially anchoring these assumptions to the entire history of exchange businesses and competitive dynamics in financial markets, which is actually pretty relevant even if everyone wants to say 'this time is different because crypto' or 'this time is different because DeFi' or 'this time is different because oracles'. i understand people will say 'margins will stay at 80% because it's all on-chain and automated and there's no customer service and no headquarters and no employees' or 'revenue was $1bn+ at peak so $6bn isn't crazy with crypto adoption growing' but that requires the future to differ from literally every other exchange market in financial history in ways that nobody has actually articulated a coherent, defensible thesis for. why would margins stay at 80%? because there's no competition? well, why is there no competition when there are hundreds of millions in dollars of profit sitting on the table every year? the current lack of serious competition is a function of HYPE being early to market with this specific design and being technically superior to the alternatives that exist right now. but 'being first' isn't a permanent moat - ask MySpace, ask Yahoo, ask Netscape, ask BlackBerry. 'better tech' isn't a permanent moat in crypto - everything is forkable, everything is open source or gets reverse engineered within months, every innovation gets cloned by teams with more capital and more resources. there's massive recency bias letting people believe current metrics are sustainable indefinitely into the future. 'look at the revenue! look at the volume! look at the margins! look at the growth!' but the most likely outcome - based on literally every other market in history, both in crypto and in TradFi - is that high margins + massive revenue opportunity = competition arrives. and competition doesn't arrive politely. competition doesn't wait outside and knock gently on the door. competition comes in aggressive. competition undercuts on fees. competition offers better rebates to market makers. competition offers better incentives to users. competition spends more on marketing and user acquisition. competition builds better features faster. competition poaches your engineers. competition copies everything that works and improves everything that doesn't. in order to defend market share when real competition arrives, HYPE will have to make a choice: either sacrifice margin (cut fees to stay competitive, offer better rebates to traders, spend more on liquidity mining to keep market makers happy, reduce insurance fund fees) or spend more on differentiation (build better UX, add new products, add new chains, improve the oracle, build insurance funds that are larger, invest in compliance infrastructure, hire more engineers, do more marketing, build more brand awareness, whatever). there is no scenario where they maintain 80% margins AND keep growing revenue at 30%+ annually for five consecutive years while competitors with billions in capital actively try to take market share. that has never happened in any market ever. not in stocks, not in commodities, not in forex, not in crypto, not anywhere. competition won't just be crypto-native perps platforms, though there will definitely be those too. dydx already exists and has venture backing and a team and brand recognition. Vertex exists. GMX exists. Gains Network exists. Drift exists on Solana. Jupiter is building perps. There will be ten more by 2026. But the real competition, the competition that actually matters, will come from entities with actual resources, real capital, established user bases, regulatory relationships, and the ability to undercut on price while still making money. it'll be Binance if they survive their regulatory issues and decide they want this market badly enough. Binance has hundreds of millions of users. They have brand recognition. They have liquidity. They have capital. If they decide decentralized perps is strategic, they can clone the entire HYPE model, launch it, market it to their user base, and compete aggressively on fees. What's HYPE's moat against that? it'll be Coinbase derivatives if they decide decentralized perps is a big enough opportunity and they can wrap it in enough compliance theater to make US regulators happy. Coinbase has the regulatory relationships, the institutional clients, the retail brand, the distribution, the capital to build whatever they want. If they see $6bn in perps revenue as achievable, they'll enter this market. it'll be OKX or Bybit or any of the other major centralized exchanges that have more users, more capital, more liquidity, more brand recognition, more ability to cross-sell from their existing spot and futures businesses. These exchanges do tens of billions in daily volume. They have established market making relationships. They have tech teams. What stops them from launching a decentralized perps product that's 90% as good as HYPE but integrated into their existing ecosystem? and if the market actually gets big enough - if perps actually becomes a $6bn+ annual revenue market globally - then TradFi players will come. CME will come. They already offer Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. If decentralized perps gets big enough, they'll figure out how to offer it in a regulated wrapper. ICE will come. Nasdaq will come. Actual regulated entities with decades of experience running exchange businesses, with deep relationships with regulators across every jurisdiction, with massive compliance budgets, with institutional credibility that crypto projects don't have. They'll wrap decentralized perps primitives in a regulated structure and offer it to institutions and retail with the backing of real regulatory clarity, real insurance, real legal recourse if something goes wrong. And institutions will choose that over HYPE because institutions care about regulatory clarity and legal recourse and counterparty risk and all the things that HYPE can't provide as a decentralized protocol. 'but HYPE has better tech!' sure, today, right now, in February 2025, HYPE has better tech than most alternatives. the oracle design is elegant. the liquidation engine works well. the UX is cleaner than most DEXs. but technology advantages in crypto are temporary. they last months, not years. everything is open source or gets reverse engineered within quarters. the oracle design is elegant but it's not magic - it's a clever use of price feeds and validator incentives, but it's not some uncrackable code that nobody else can figure out. the liquidation engine is good but it's not impossible to replicate - it's just an orderbook and a matching engine and some smart contracts, which are all things that lots of teams know how to build. the UX is clean but design can be copied - you can literally fork the frontend repo and improve it and launch in weeks. there is no technical moat that lasts five years in crypto. none. zero. every technical advantage gets competed away, gets copied, gets improved upon, gets made obsolete by the next innovation. 'but HYPE has the community! the brand! the trust! the users are loyal!' okay, sure, brand matters. community matters. trust matters. but brand isn't worth 80% margins in perpetuity. Coinbase has arguably the strongest brand in all of crypto - they're the household name, they're the one your mom has heard of, they're the 'safe' option - and they do 30% margins because they face competition and have to spend to maintain their position. They spend on Super Bowl ads. They spend on compliance. They spend on customer service. They spend on new products. They spend on lobbying. Brand gives you pricing power but it doesn't give you infinite pricing power. Community and trust are valuable but they're not infinitely defensible. Users are loyal until they're not. Traders are mercenaries - they go wherever the fees are lowest and the liquidity is best and the features are most attractive. If someone launches a competitor with the same features, the same UX, the same trust guarantees, but 30% lower fees, where do the traders go? Some will stay with HYPE out of loyalty. Most will leave for the better deal. That's just how markets work. 'but HYPE has no VCs! no unlock dump! the tokenomics are clean! there's no sell pressure from investors!' that's legitimately nice and it does help with price stability in the short to medium term and it does mean there's no massive dump incoming from Sequoia or a16z or whoever. but it doesn't create a business moat. it doesn't make users more loyal. it doesn't make the revenue more defensible. it doesn't protect against competition. if Binance comes along with a better product and better fees and better liquidity, users will leave regardless of how clean the token unlock schedule is. users don't stay on a platform because the tokenomics are good - they stay because the product is better than the alternatives. hyperliquid absolutely has first-mover advantage in decentralized perps with this specific oracle design. that's worth something real. being first matters. being first means you get to iterate faster, learn faster, build brand faster, attract users faster, attract market makers faster. the team has executed incredibly well - probably better than 99% of crypto teams. the product is genuinely good - it works, it's fast, it's reliable, people actually use it for real trading with real size. the oracle design is clever - it solves real problems that other DEXs have struggled with. the community is strong - there's genuine enthusiasm and genuine belief in the project. all of that is real and valuable and shouldn't be dismissed. i'm not arguing HYPE is worthless. i'm not arguing the project will definitely fail. i'm not even arguing you should sell if you own it. i'm just arguing that at $20bn, a lot of good outcomes are already priced in. i'm willing to pay a premium vs what a pure DCF model would suggest because there's optionality value in crypto, because crypto markets are structurally inefficient and misprice things, because sentiment and narrative matter and can drive prices independent of fundamentals for extended periods, because there's some non-zero probability of a 2017-style mania where fundamentals don't matter and everything goes up and retail floods back in and nobody cares about valuations. but that doesn't mean the current price is the correct price for a rational long-term holder who's trying to maximize risk-adjusted returns. the most likely explanation for current valuation is that there's still broad overvaluation across altcoins generally. people who manage capital, who run crypto funds, who have LPs or investors asking questions, who feel forced to have crypto exposure because that's what their mandate requires, who need to deploy capital into something because sitting in cash feels like missing out - they feel they need HYPE exposure because the other large-cap alternatives are relatively worse expected value. it's not that HYPE is cheap - it's that everything else is even more expensive on a fundamental basis. SOL at $100bn? doing what exactly? the network still goes down randomly. the apps are mostly memecoins and ponzis and degenerate gambling. the actual revenue to the network (the fees paid to validators, the value accruing to SOL holders) is like $100-200mm annually. you're paying 500-1000x price-to-sales for a network that has mostly speculative activity, that has serious technical issues, that has centralization concerns, that has questions about long-term sustainability. ETH at $400bn? the roadmap keeps changing every six months. L2s are cannibalizing the base layer - all the activity is moving to Arbitrum and Optimism and Base, which means all the fees are going there instead of to ETH holders. the Ethereum Foundation moves slower than any other major chain - they're still years away from finishing the merge to full PoS, the sharding roadmap keeps getting delayed, the gas fees are still terrible for small users. revenue to stakers is okay but nothing that justifies $400bn - you're getting like 3-4% staking yield, which on $400bn is like $12-16bn in staking rewards, but a lot of that is inflation not real revenue. you're paying for the brand, for the developer ecosystem, for the hope that 'ultrasound money' narrative makes a comeback and ETH becomes deflationary again and we get back to the glory days of 2021. but the fundamental picture has gotten worse, not better - activity is fragmenting across L2s, users are going to other chains, the roadmap keeps changing, the EF seems to have lost its way. everything else in the top 50 is even worse. most altcoins do low single-digit millions or low double-digit millions in actual revenue. most have questionable product-market fit - they're solutions looking for problems, they're infrastructure for infrastructure's sake, they're speculation masquerading as utility. most have massive token unlocks coming that will create sell pressure for years. most have teams that are clearly just there for the pump and dump - they raise a bunch of money, they market aggressively, they get the token listed, they dump on retail, they lose interest, the project slowly dies. so in that context, HYPE at $20bn doing $800mm in revenue with 80% margins and a team that actually ships and actually gives a fuck about the product looks amazing. it IS amazing, relatively speaking. it's legitimately one of the better fundamental pictures in crypto. but 'less bad than the alternatives' isn't the same as 'good on an absolute basis'. 'better than SOL or ETH' isn't the same as 'worth $20bn'. if you're buying HYPE at $20bn you're either: option 1: betting on 2017-style crypto mania returning where fundamentals don't matter at all and everything goes up 10x and retail floods back in and CNBC is covering crypto every day and your uncle is asking you about shitcoins and narrative matters more than reality. this might work! i'm genuinely not saying it won't work! if we get a proper mania phase in 2025-2026 where everything goes vertical, HYPE could easily go to $50bn or $100bn or $200bn on pure momentum while doing the exact same revenue or even less. but that's not a fundamental investment thesis, that's a 'greater fool' thesis, that's market timing, that's speculation, and you need to be honest with yourself about which game you're playing. if you're buying at $20bn hoping to sell at $100bn to someone who cares even less about fundamentals than you do, that's fine! that's a legitimate strategy in crypto! just don't confuse it with investing! and make sure you actually sell when things get frothy, because if you hold through the mania peak thinking 'this time is different', you'll watch it crash back down and you'll be underwater for years. option 2: genuinely believing they'll do $6bn+ revenue at 50%+ margins in 2030 while facing heavy competition from both crypto-native competitors and TradFi institutions. this requires you to believe something about market structure and competitive dynamics and business moats that has never been true in any financial market in history. maybe you're right! maybe this time IS genuinely different! maybe crypto perps is such a unique market that normal rules of capitalism don't apply! maybe 'decentralization' creates such strong network effects that nobody can compete! maybe the oracle design is such a strong moat that it lasts a decade instead of a year! but you should be able to articulate WHY it's different, not just assert that it is. you should be able to explain what specific factors make HYPE immune to competitive dynamics that have affected every other exchange in history. you should be able to explain why margins will stay high when every other high-margin business in history has seen margins compress as competition arrives. you should have a coherent thesis, not just vibes. option 3: making a calculated relative value trade where you think HYPE is mispriced relative to other alts you're shorting or selling. you think SOL is more overvalued than HYPE, so you go long HYPE short SOL and capture the spread. you think ETH is dead money for the next year so you rotate into HYPE for better risk-adjusted returns in the medium term. you think the top 20 altcoins are all overvalued but HYPE is the least overvalued, so you hold it as your 'least bad option'. you're not making an absolute value judgment, you're trading the relative value, you're playing the spread. this is intellectually defensible! this is actually how you should think about crypto if you're running an actual book, if you're managing real money, if you're trying to generate alpha! most assets are mispriced relative to each other - that's where the opportunity is! if you think HYPE is expensive at $20bn but everything else is even more expensive, then being long HYPE short everything else is a

@Dogetoshi of what?

ngl kind of scared rn