
Den NlIas
67 posts














HOLD MORE CASH - says legendary tech investor @DanielTNiles in this week’s episode of The Master Investor Podcast, just six weeks after he correctly called for a more aggressive risk-on approach at the end of March, since when Nasdaq has surged 25%. SEMIS: “So in the short term, are semis at the most overbought they've been since 2000 or 1995 before they had horrific corrections? Absolutely.” IRAN WAR: “If it going to take a lot longer for this situation at the Strait of Hormuz to get sorted out, then you're going to see stock prices collapse to catch up with where bond yields & oil prices are. I don't think that's the case. But, I'm viewing things as you should be sitting with a lot of cash.” MEGA CAP WINNER: “It's obviously Google. They have the full stack & they're the ones you should bet on...they've got everything & they've got the massive cashflow to fund it.” However, the shift to Agentic AI should sustain earnings upgrades this year, making today more like 1998 than 99/00, but be prepared for 30-50% AI trade pull-back in early 2027. We also discussed what the shift to Agentic AI means for $NVDA (not ideal), Intel $INTC (great) and $AMD (good); why concerns over $META are NOT overdone; why $AAPL fortunes should improve; why $AMZN & $MSFT are struggling short term, & why $GOOGL shines bright. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:39 Why today feels like 1998, NOT 1999/2000 05:25 Agentic AI suggests more upside to bull market 07:52 But Iran War could derail things 11:18 Agentic AI means CPU’s over GPU’s 13:35 Semis are overbought 17:51 Is shift to CPUs bad for Nvidia? 19:13 Google the standout performer 21:15 Apple leadership transition 23:45 Meta concerns not overdone 25:37 Google best placed 27:36 30-50% AI crash by early 2027 30:01 Concerns about OpenAI 34:27 Upcoming IPOs, oil, bonds signal problems 36:16 Hold more cash 37:48 Kevin Warsh a positive, but watch bonds 45:44 Conclusion: 1998 or 1999?





