Alex

Key Data Points (as of early 2026)Industrial Production: Federal Reserve data shows manufacturing output grew at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (despite a minor 0.1% dip in March). Overall industrial production was up 0.7% year-over-year in March. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Expanded for the third straight month at 52.7 in March 2026 (above 50 signals growth), driven by strong new orders and production. "Stealth Boom" Details: Since January 2025, manufacturing jobs have fallen ~100,000 (-0.6% to ~12.59 million as of March 2026 per BLS), but production rose 2.3% and shipments 4.2%. This reflects automation and efficiency gains rather than contraction. Investment Surge: Private-sector commitments hit $1.595 trillion by April 2026, with factory construction and reshoring announcements up sharply. Employment has stabilized or ticked up modestly in recent months (e.g., +15,000 in March 2026), but the real job gains from these projects are still ramping (many facilities take 2–10 years to fully staff). The boom is real in economic output and future capacity, just not yet in headcount everywhere. m Sectors and Themes Driving the Trend: The revival is concentrated in high-value, strategic, and tech-enabled areas rather than low-wage assembly (e.g., apparel or basic consumer goods). Here's what's leading: Semiconductors & Electronics (biggest driver): Over $640 billion committed across 140+ projects in 30+ states. Production up 7.7% year-over-year (Q4 2025). AI/data center demand + CHIPS Act incentives are tripling domestic capacity by 2032 and creating hundreds of thousands of eventual jobs. Computers/electronics tied directly to the AI boom (semiconductors, networking, power/cooling gear). Clean Energy, EVs, Batteries & Electrical Equipment: ~$312 billion projected for automotive/EV manufacturing; clean energy investment quintupled to $14 billion/quarter. IRA incentives are pulling in solar components, batteries, and power infrastructure (transformers, switchgear). Data centers' massive electricity needs are a huge multiplier here. Pharmaceuticals & Life Sciences: Over $370 billion in 2025 pledges alone (e.g., Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly). Onshoring for supply-chain security post-pandemic. Aerospace, Defense & Transportation Equipment: Output up 28% year-over-year. Space boom (e.g., SpaceX), Boeing recovery, and national security priorities are boosting this. Overarching Themes:Reshoring & Supply-Chain Security: Tariffs, geopolitics, and lessons from COVID are driving companies to bring production stateside (or nearshore). This shows up in the freight data—less reliance on coastal imports. Policy Support: CHIPS Act, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), tax reforms (e.g., full expensing, higher advanced manufacturing credits), and deregulation under the current administration. AI & Data Center Explosion: Creating outsized demand for chips, power equipment, and related manufacturing—described as a "sold-out" backlog in some segments. Automation & Smart Manufacturing: 80% of executives are investing heavily in AI/robots, analytics, and sensors. This explains why output is rising faster than jobs—productivity gains are key to the "stealth" nature. In short: Manufacturing is coming back in America, especially in advanced, strategic sectors that play to US strengths in innovation and high-tech production.

@gurjota x.com/i/status/20472…

When US markets fall, we fall way more. When US markets rise, we rise by half. Aakhir kya karan hai, hum aage nahi badh paa rahe hai?

>> AI Demand Drives Inventory Shortages: Apple Raises Mac mini Starting Price by $200 • Apple has raised the starting price of the Mac mini from $599 to $799, reflecting inventory shortages driven by AI demand and tighter processor supply. The price increase was effectively implemented by removing the entry-level 256GB storage model. The base configuration still uses the same M4 chip, but now starts with 512GB of storage. Meanwhile, the starting price of the M4 Pro model remains unchanged at $1,399. $AAPL

@IndiaToday @adityajakki @BhutaniChetan @Akshita_N x.com/i/status/20500…

#Breaking | Fuel prices set to rise in India Petrol and diesel prices likely to be hiked by ₹4–5 per litre: Sources Domestic LPG rates may go up by ₹50 per cylinder: Sources @BhutaniChetan and @Akshita_N with the latest details #FuelPriceHike

Shipping corporation of India (SCI) Phase C1 — Ship Owner/Operator. India's largest fleet (60+ vessels). Revenue = freight rates. Also the biggest CUSTOMER for Indian shipyards — 207 vessel plan worth ₹1.5L Cr. The 59-vessel JV with Oil PSUs targets 2-3x revenue + 50% margins.

As of 1st May 2026 Overall Aggregate Performance (All Reported Companies) Total Revenue Growth YoY: +7.4% Total EBITDA / EBIDT Growth YoY: +7.6% Total Operating Profit Growth YoY: +10.2% Companies reported so far: Positive Profit Growth: 237 Negative Profit Growth: 117 Neutral: 13

Quick Update: Commercial LPG Hike (May 1, 2026) OMCs raised 19kg commercial LPG cylinder prices by ₹993 today. Delhi: Now ₹3,071.50 Domestic 14.2kg cylinders: No change (₹913) Impact: Immediate relief on commercial under-recoveries, modestly improves OMC cash flows, eases fiscal pressure, and gives mild support to USD/INR stability. Core petrol/diesel crisis unchanged — daily losses still ₹1,200–2,400 crore. Broader auto-fuel hikes still needed for real rupee relief. Smart partial move? Your thoughts? #OilCrisis #LPG #USDINR #IndianEconomy #OMCs

@Reuters x.com/i/status/20497…

Rupee to encounter fresh strain as Fed's hawkish tilt compounds oil pain reut.rs/48vV9zI reut.rs/48vV9zI

@Akshat_World x.com/i/status/20497…

INR is a falling knife. Change 5000 INR into Thai currency (THB)-- you will get 1030 THB. Now, try changing that 1030 THB back to INR, you will get only 2989 INR back (instead of 5000). This 40% "spread" indicates how illiquid (& weak) INR is. - No one bothers. - Media won't educate you. - Everyone says: why even bother, you will stay in Indis; spend in India, right? Wrong. That's not how it works. Just because YOU don't spend in USD or AED, does not mean that it doesn't hurt you. India is a net importer. And, is likely to remain so. Whenever something is imported, you need to pay in a foreign currency. Just because you are not paying this "directly" does not mean this payment is not happening. As the currency falls, your buying power (globally) gets depleted. Solution? if you want to travel abroad, send kids abroad, plan your retirement or simply retain your buying power: Start saving in a foreign currency. Example: invest in US stocks. This is legal. One of the many ways. Else, you might look at your SIP growth= 12% Pay 12.5% tax= roughly 10.5% Currency depreciation = 8% Net returns= 2.5-3% The new reality is: to retire in India, you need to invest abroad. The sooner you get started the better it is. India is a great growth story. Use it strategically. Don't buy it at any valuation. Buy it only when the valuations are low.

🔴Oil Shock + Frozen Pump Prices A Looming Crisis for the Rupee & India's Fiscal Health As USD/INR flirts with the 95-mark (94.9+ as of April 29), Brent crude hovers near $110–113/barrel, and OMCs (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) are bleeding cash at ₹1,200–2,400 crore per day in under-recoveries. Here’s the simple but dangerous mechanics playing out right now: • OMCs buy crude in USD on the global market (85% of India’s needs are imported). • They refine it into petrol, diesel & ATF. • But retail pump prices have been frozen for ~4 years (~₹94.77/litre petrol, ~₹87.67/litre diesel in Delhi). • Result? Massive losses — official under-recoveries as per Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (1 April 2026 data): ₹24 per litre on petrol and ₹105 per litre on diesel. Detailed OMC Financial Strain (April 2026)Daily losses: Peaked at ₹2,400 crore/day last month; eased to ~₹1,600 crore/day after the government’s ₹10/litre excise duty cut in late March. Still unsustainable. Q4 FY26 impact (preliminary broker previews): - HPCL: EBITDA expected to drop 51% QoQ (down 52% YoY) — worst hit. - BPCL: EBITDA down 28% QoQ (down 3.2% YoY). - IOC: EBITDA down 22% QoQ (still up 5.6% YoY thanks to stronger refining). - LPG under-recoveries alone: Added another ₹10,000–12,000 crore pressure in Q4 (cumulative LPG losses touched ~₹31,000 crore by March end). - Marketing margins have turned sharply negative; auto-fuel losses were already in the ₹30–50/litre range pre-surge, now far worse. OMCs are even slashing refinery transfer prices (a first since deregulation) to stem the bleed. The government stepped in with excise duty cuts (₹10/litre in March), shielding consumers but sacrificing revenue and pushing the fiscal deficit higher (already at risk of breaching the 4.3% target). If nothing changes: OMC losses could easily cross tens of thousands of crores in the coming weeks/months. Wider current account + fiscal deficits → more rupee pressure. Vicious cycle: weaker INR → costlier oil imports → even bigger losses. The cleanest way out? A calibrated retail price hike on petrol, diesel & ATF (analysts expect ₹8–12/litre initially, possibly ₹20–28 eventually). It restores OMC margins, eases fiscal strain, signals policy prudence to FIIs, and actually supports rupee stability. Markets are watching closely. Will the government pass on the cost post-elections, or will the balloon keep inflating? What’s your take — short-term pain for long-term stability, or keep subsidising via the exchequer? Drop your views below #OilCrisis #USDINR #IndianEconomy #EnergySector #FiscalDeficit #Investing #MacroEconomics #OMCs #IOC #BPCL #HPCL

@microcp2mltibgr x.com/i/status/20497…

USDINR Rupee at a record new lifetime low🚨🔻 Sabne 15-20% ka short term profit bana liya ho toh ab ltcg, stcg and stt ke aandolan ka warm-up karlein. There are 3 days😄

Mid‑cycle / exit P/E: 18–22x Peak‑cycle P/E: 25–30x On EV/EBITDA, Exit EV/EBITDA: 10–12x Peak EV/EBITDA: 14–16x

Sterlite technologies Integrated glass → preform → fibre → cable → connectivity player. Levered to AI‑DC, high‑spec, high‑density fibre, where pricing and utilisation are both strong. But still below where global leaders trade today in this AI‑DC spike. At the same time: • Smaller and riskier than global peers (Corning, Prysmian) • Indian midcap • Still carrying litigation overhang (US Prysmian case; UK Fujikura) and some leverage.

In the shadow of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, one truth stands out: China now holds greater diplomatic and economic leverage than the United States in shaping global energy flows. While Washington enforces a naval blockade, Beijing is quietly negotiating the release and safe passage of its 70 trapped vessels directly with Iran—leveraging decades of oil purchases, infrastructure investments, and strategic patience. This isn’t weakness; it’s the power of economic interdependence in action.From the Gulf to the Global South, China’s Belt and Road partnerships and energy diplomacy are proving more effective at keeping trade routes open than military posturing alone. #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity #ChinaUS #HormuzCrisis #GlobalTrade

• The Sandoz Sub-Saharan Africa acquisition (17 Mar 2026) more than doubles Strides' Africa branded-generics presence in one stroke: Strides Pharma International AG (Switzerland) signed a definitive agreement with Sandoz to acquire and in-license a portfolio across 10 countries (Western/Eastern Africa, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya) covering anti-infectives, cardiovascular and dermatology brands — several with >$1m annual sales each. Initial consideration is just $12m (≈₹100 cr) plus an ongoing royalty on distribution products, funded entirely from internal accruals. Aditya Kumar (ED-BD) framed it as positioning Strides "among the top 5 in SSA." Closing expected end-Q2 FY27 (Sep 2026), management has guided EPS-accretive. • The Chestnut Ridge USFDA EIR (Feb 5, 2026) is materially de-risking for the nasal-spray pipeline. The 17–23 Dec 2025 inspection was a pre-approval inspection (PAI) specifically covering the Drug-Device Combination capabilities for nasal sprays. It produced 4 procedural Form 483 observations and was classified VAI (Voluntary Action Indicated) — i.e., cleared. This removes a critical regulatory gate for the first nasal spray approval and any subsequent filings out of Chestnut Ridge. • Leadership change at the US business (30 Jan 2026): Strides appointed Peter Hardwick (former President & CEO of Apotex Corp – US Generics, and CCO of Apotex Global Generics until Aug 2023, with 30+ years (Strides) in commercial leadership)

@JoshiEien Totally agree best growth for PVC is behind us...have been reading the same since sometime x.com/i/status/19418…

Affordability crisis in United State🇺🇸

We are still very early in the Q4 FY26 earnings season. Only a small fraction (~3%) of companies have reported so far.

As of 25 April 2026 Overall Aggregate Performance (All Companies) Total Revenue Growth YoY: +4.4% (modest improvement from earlier partial reporting) Total EBITDA Growth YoY: +6.7% Total Operating Profit Growth YoY: +12.1% (strongest metric) Profit Growth Split: Positive: 95 companies Negative: 56 companies Neutral: 7 companies Key takeaway: Q4 FY26 seems like a margin-driven quarter. Revenue growth was soft (+4.4%), but operating profits grew more than 2.5x faster thanks to cost control and margin expansion. Let's see how further result unfolds