Aylo

I've been having quite a few conversations with a friend that has life changing money in crypto currently. He's been in this position before, but lost/rode it all down last cycle. Here are some thoughts from those conversations: I don't know how long this bull market lasts. I would guess we are at about 60-70% of the way through at this stage. However, I don't have a crystal ball, no one does, and I do believe you should remain humble in the fact that you can't predict the future. There are simply too many variables and unknowns. If you are an individual that finds yourself in a position where if you cashed out/rebalanced to less risky assets today that it would completely change your life, then you are now in a position where you can only lose going forward. Let me explain. Once you have enough money to take away all/most worries, then in general, more money makes very little difference to your happiness. If you are very materialistic then you might feel differently, but for most humans this is the case. More stuff is just more stuff. It doesn't really have a multiplying impact on purpose, well being and happiness. So, if you find yourself with life changing money at stake, then I would argue you can only lose by continuing to hold a large position in crypto. I don't really think you can "win more", as more gains will make very little difference to your overall wellbeing or happiness. Once you have secured the bag, then by all means come back and speculate to your heart's content, but securing some form of financial freedom is the biggest upgrade you can possibly make in life. It sets you up forever and puts you in a position to explore boundless opportunities in the future. Greed and arrogance is really the only thing that stops humans from taking the chips off the table, even when they have already won and beaten the market. There's also an ever present narrative that "this is the last chance to make it" and it will be impossible to have chances to make outsized money again. This irrational fear and logic also drives people to just keep holding even when they already have unrealized life changing gains. Most are simply unable to overcome this imagination of missed gains in the future, and it's why we see most crypto participants losing life changing money on a consistent basis. It's also not a popular thing on CT to tell people that "selling early" is ok & the right decision even if it is going to have an outsized impact on your life in the real world. I have an immense respect for anyone that sticks to their own plan and isn't swayed by external influence/noise, and is able to step away from the perceived gains that the majority says is a certainty in the near future. Just a little ramble, maybe it helps you in some way now or in the future.

Patience is the hardest part of the bear. If you study previous bear markets then one thing is consistent: time. It takes time to work through a Bitcoin bear. We've been trending down for 5 months. Major BTC downtrends of have historically lasted an average of 9 months, with the longest around 12–13 months. We end up grinding higher the majority of the time and then just get whacked down to an eventual lower low in days. The progress is slow and the damage is fast. I think our best case scenario would be a double bottom around the most recent low of $60k, and more time with excruciating sideways action. A ~52% drawdown from ATH would be the shallowest bear ever, but consistent with cycle compression. Base case scenario is a lower low, possibly around $55k months from now. 200WMA will be close to there and act as strong support with many buyers interested. Worst case scenario would be $40-45k in my mind, which would materialize if macro really turns. Even at -65% from ATH, this would still be an improved drawdown vs 2022's -77%. I don't believe we will close a monthly candle below $60k. You don't need to worry about pico bottom at all. Just set limits, chill and manifest your future upside in the years to come.

Institutional legitimacy flywheel for Hyperliquid begins. Probably the single most credible TradFi endorsement any DeFi protocol has ever received. If S&P DJI is comfortable licensing their crown jewel index to trade on Hyperliquid, it dramatically lowers the perceived risk for other TradFi entities.

I don’t really see the comparison to Summer 21 in behaviour of participants previously or timing. My base case would still be a much better drawdown from ATH than previous bears. Just because it wasn’t the cycle people wanted from a returns perspective doesn’t mean it wasn’t a traditional bull.

@alpha_pls Unless this is Summer '21 I still think that's the most probable outcome as we missed so many traditional markers of a normal bull market. Why would you have a traditional bear, when the bull was anything but?

@psyopsec_ltd Pirate ship

@alpha_pls did you ride the pirate ship or the ducks?

Life update that no one asked for, but maybe you used to like some stuff I wrote and wondered where I went: A while back I came across the Rubber Ball Theory. The idea is simple: imagine you're juggling five balls, work, family, health, friends, and spirit. Work is made of rubber. Drop it and it bounces back. The other four are made of glass. Drop one of those and they shatter. That hit me hard, and it made so much sense. After grinding it out for a few cycles with no breaks, I decided it was time to life maxx for a bit with my wife and young kids. I had to step away from tweeting and writing newsletters, and mostly disconnect from the markets. I took my whole family on an adventure travelling around Japan for a few months, whilst having a load of renovation work done to the house back home. I spent invaluable time with my two young boys. Made memories and had once in a lifetime experiences I'll look back on fondly as I grow old. I'm always super conscious that tomorrow is not a given. You have to find a way to live in the present. Every time I log into X I'm fed the doomer narrative that if you aren't online every second of the day you'll fall behind and become a serf once AI takes over for good. Don't believe those lies frens. Working hard is amazing, but it's rubber, it will bounce back. Your family and friends? Those are glass. And they are far more meaningful in the long run. Don't forget that. (little view from Hakone - beautiful place)

@vaporwarefan96 Gmx wasn’t scalable. I don’t think it’s the best analogy here personally. Optimistic view is early BNB.

yes this is how market cycles work there is more capital each time I don't think it changes any cyclical timing I've been holding since my airdrop so u couldn't find a bigger bull and I still think that's a mental trap The 'this time is different' I do love me some HL though and don't really care what happens in short term

Not true GMX was literally last bear market which did multiples against BTC I'm a major HYPE bull at a sub 20 avg and even I can admit HYPE could just be the GMX of this bear market during this temporary relief

@CoinNotes_io LINK wasn’t a large cap back then, and it didn’t really until late 2018 and 2019. I was all in LINK during that bear so I remember it well. Point here is how unusual it is for a large cap to do well vs BTC whilst it is in the drawdown phase of a bear.

@alpha_pls I wouldnt say it's the first time in history. LINKBTC trended up the whole 2018-19 bear market.

No large-cap asset has ever looked this strong against BTC this deep into a bear market. We've had brief lagging strength before post cycle top: - ETH/BTC early 18 - BNB/BTC post April 21 top if you count that as the major psychological BTC top What makes $HYPE different from almost every other altcoin in history is that it is setting a clean, price-discovery ATH vs BTC while Bitcoin is down roughly 40-50% from its peak. In every previous cycle (2018, 2022), a Top 20 altcoin would be down 60–80% against BTC by this point. Instead, HYPE is absorbing $300M+ unlocks and outperforming on real revenue ($800M+ ARR) and the HIP-6 ecosystem launch. I'm not expecting HYPE to have a completely easy free ride over the next 6 months, but we are seeing something unique. Without some major fud event, Hyperliquid's growing fundamentals & deflationary tokenomics (97% fee burn) should continue to see HYPE hold its own against Bitcoin in this bear market, which is something no large cap alt coin has ever done. Any major dips should be welcomed for bigger outperformance over the coming years.

@gumballslime Amazing. The loop boat ride was great.

@alpha_pls Hakone boat trip! I have a similar shot

@koreanjewcrypto @OracleHershiser RIP Hersh. Very sad news. I was in a small group with him in 20/21. Good guy, and phenomenal trader.

Got the really bad news that our brother @OracleHershiser passed over the weekend. He was one of the good ones gone too soon 😔 Rip king 🙏

@getderb Not in the drawdown phase of the bear. LINK did it as a much smaller cap asset as well.

@alpha_pls Link n tezos did it of yesteryears cycle

@ivan_labrie We might have had the BTC bottom, or maybe still have a lower low which wouldn't be that far off the previous low. The only thing I believe is that a bit more time is required to hammer out the bear. I think everyone should be DCAing here regardless.

@alpha_pls Think you spelled bottom wrong. Everyone in CT afraid to call the bottom.

Counter trend rally underway. 80k possible, but around 75k would be my guess.

@xEbumx lmao

@alpha_pls Khamenei was the 10am seller

Everything set up for a solid counter trend rally. Khamenei has been taken out. Bitcoin very oversold. Let's see.

@Atenov_D It wasn't. But his quick death removes doubt that this will be a long drawn out conflict.

@alpha_pls I don't think Khamenei was the reason for the entire market crash.

@insomniac988 Yeah it’s damn cold, and Japanese homes are really not built for it 😅

@alpha_pls Super cold in Japan this year for some reason

My boy looking at Tokyo in the snow.