Alpha Extract

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Alpha Extract

Alpha Extract

@alphaextract_

#Bitcoin Not a financial advisor. Cancel out the noise and focus on your positions.

Katılım Aralık 2023
65 Takip Edilen5.5K Takipçiler
Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
Just wrapped up some home renovations - good to finally put it behind and get back to consistent work. Have to say though, doesn't look like I missed much lol. Good reminder that there's more to it than just charts and positions. Step away from the screen for a bit, anon. You'll come back sharper.
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
Another great exposure-increase signal from MCI. Systems like this are designed to do one thing well: increase spot exposure when risk is favorable, and keep you out of trouble when it isn't.
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
Simple systems often work. The problem is that most people are mentally married to the idea of being a day trader - clicking buy/sell 100 times a day. So a system that trades only a few times a year instantly feels like failure, even when the results prove otherwise.
Zeke@Zeke_Gripto

backtesting results trading Bitcoin using a simple EMA cross strat over the past 8 years. (not overfitted) huge drawdown but risk adj return metrics suggest it can be optimised and overall drawdown can be lowered if trading multiple assets (like Gold/oil/equities) which we now have access to onchain. it's not that hard if you're trading a few times a year on the daily timeframe, a lot of ppl are too obsessed over trading smaller timeframes and trading more often but the fees is what kills you when you do that, will this hold up moving forward is a big question given the evolution of the asset but there's a case to be made to using simple stuff and using it well

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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
A great 9-minute listen. Don't be lazy.
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho

The only personal edge that doesn't decay: a corpus of knowledge you built yourself. Got this from Kirk McKeown, ex-Point72 Head of Prop Research who worked alongside Steve Cohen. "You want to get it right, not be right." "Alpha rewards those who value assets in a cold way." "History rhymes because people are animals. They do the same thing over and over expecting a different result." "Reading a book. Having these conversations. That's the competitive advantage. Not asking a chatbot." The irony: in an AI world, the edge goes to whoever puts in the most analog reps.

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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
Big drop in global liquidity. With the US currently escalating tensions with Iran the key question for markets is whether Trump will eventually pull a TACO and walk things back. Given the disruption his actions have already caused across global markets, that scenario seems quite possible. The bigger issue right now, however, is oil. Even countries not directly involved in the conflict are affected through energy prices. When oil spikes, it pulls liquidity out of the system in several ways: - Importers need more dollars to finance energy purchases - Inventories become more expensive to carry - Trade financing requirements increase. In other words, higher oil prices don't just raise inflation - they also absorb liquidity from the global financial system. It is a difficult environment for the Fed too, because rising energy prices drive inflation higher, making it much harder to justify cutting interest rates - the exact opposite of what markets have been hoping for. At this point I am not entirely sure what the broader strategy is, but one thing is certain: global liquidity is tightening. Two factors appear to be driving this in particular: tighter collateral conditions (rising MOVE) and higher oil prices, both of which increase the system's demand for liquidity. A TACO could temporarily ease some pressure, but for now the direction of liquidity seems fairly clear until something changes. Global liquidity decreased by $3T (-2.1%), the biggest drop this cycle has seen.
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
The BTC/GLI Composite Index is one of our proprietary long-term mean indicators, historically kept private alongside several other internal metrics. This indicator rarely signals oversold conditions. It typically highlights areas where a potential market reversal may begin to form. On January 31 this year, however, the index entered territory that has historically aligned with oversold conditions. This adds further confluence to the possibility of a higher price correction phase or even the early stages of a broader market reversal.
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
If you're not waking up feeling like you don't have enough time in life to learn everything you want, read every book, acquire new skills, and spend time with the people you care about… What are you even doing? Life is fragile. Time is short. Operate with urgency.
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
@IncomeSharks @pepemoonboy No offense, but if it's not a clear life improvement after using them for a while - it's a skill issue Running a business with LLMs is a game changer, and the time saved on everyday tasks is genuinely insane
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IncomeSharks
IncomeSharks@IncomeSharks·
@pepemoonboy I've still not noticed a notable difference in my life with these. They do such cool stuff, it blows my mind, then I think what has it actually changed for me and nothing. So far AI has saved me time on research but I haven't yet found a golden ticket from it yet.
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PepeMoonBoy
PepeMoonBoy@pepemoonboy·
All you need to succeed
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
@DurdenBTC Loving the insane improvement you're making, mate - the charts are beautiful The big jump in followers is well deserved, keep it up!
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DurdenBTC
DurdenBTC@DurdenBTC·
the last time btc was this far below trend during an ism expansion: early 2019. price was ~$3,500. twelve months later: $10,000.
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
Time to keep a close eye on the DXY here, imo. It's now at the range high, where it met strong resistance on the previous six attempts to break out. If it meets resistance again, it could open a short window for BTC to benefit. Alternatively, breaking through here would be a bearish sign, at least on the short timeframe.
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Alpha Extract@alphaextract_

Unpopular opinion. The weekly reversal on DXY is an early sign of what's coming next. With everyone out of USD, it likely goes back above 100 now. I honestly thought we'd see it go lower, given how the weekly push towards range extreme played out - but it's important to be able to pivot your expectations based on new information, and this weekly close is exactly that.

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Kaaoi
Kaaoi@Kaaoi1·
@alphaextract_ Didn't miss much, except everyone's grandma calling for 200$ oil lol
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
Apologies for going MIA the past few days - was super busy and traveling on top of it. Back at it fully now, we've got a bunch to cover.
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
Well that looks pretty interesting... Can someone tell me what usually happens when $BTC enters the bottom band of the Power Law, after deviating outside of it for a few? Asking for a friend.
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
Bitcoin doesn't wait for liquidity to flow through the economy, it prices it in faster The real economy lags liquidity, and BTC front runs it So yes, US liquidity matters a lot, but Bitcoin is less of a bet on US economic output and more of a real-time barometer of global liquidity and risk appetite
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RSI SCANNER
RSI SCANNER@_MrBTC_·
@alphaextract_ And shouldn’t we pay more attention to what’s happening with liquidity in the US? Isn’t BTC kind of a bet on the US economy? Most of that liquidity from China goes into gold. China has banned BTC.
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
Be cautious. Falling momentum has been mentioned several times as a warning sign. What matters isn't just the level of global liquidity, but whether it is expanding or slowing. Right now, both momentum and overall liquidity growth are weakening. Previously, liquidity momentum was rising while Bitcoin was ranging or correcting - which was bullish. Now it's the opposite: Bitcoin is slowly pushing higher while liquidity momentum and nominal growth are falling. That's not the kind of tailwind that sustains strong upside. Even if the earlier bullish divergence still plays out, a steady downtrend in liquidity momentum is not a good sign. Strong moves usually need expanding liquidity behind them. Our metric for China shows it is still injecting money into its system. But if that strength isn't broad across the major banks, the global effect remains limited. Investor behavior also reflects a shift in positioning. Bonds are rising, which usually happens when investors start leaning toward safety. At the same time, collateral values are not improving meaningfully, which is a major drag on expanding liquidity. Signs that we are reaching the final innings for liquidity are there. Global liquidity has decreased by $2.8T (-1.9%).
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Alpha Extract
Alpha Extract@alphaextract_·
@idaepyo243992 I mean that's completely false and out of context We made a post specifically about how liquidity is approaching a peak here Market dynamics change faster than you can blink, mate - it's always adapt or get left behind
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이대표
이대표@idaepyo243992·
@alphaextract_ I heard it was on the rise three days ago?? What are you talking about today??
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Keşfet

@anthdm @Cvetanovskii @iammarctheiler @IncomeSharks @pepemoonboy @DurdenBTC @Kaaoi1 @elonmusk