Analytic Flying

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Analytic Flying

Analytic Flying

@analyticflying

Independent blog focused on economic & financial analysis on Australian aviation. Support us at: https://t.co/mcT4QYTwuv

YMML Katılım Eylül 2023
963 Takip Edilen6.7K Takipçiler
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
NEW: A visual exploration of Qantas's A321XLR rollout showing why they chose it to their shorthaul backbone It overcomes payload restrictions on transcon sectors while being optimised for high frequency short sectors - all in the name of utilisation! analyticflying.com/p/qantass-a321…
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Blake Johnson
Blake Johnson@BlakeJohnson·
Airbus will seriously stretch the wings of the new A350 for @Qantas Project Sunrise by flying non-stop Toulouse to Melbourne (!) arriving Friday July 24.
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
@_marty_k Temporarily. OQD and OQJ are due heavy checks this year (OQD probably heads off shortly). There are some scheduled A380 service reductions in July and August, likely covering some of this - will post separately with full detail (just need to confirm dates)
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Marty K
Marty K@_marty_k·
@analyticflying So with OQI back in the air shortly, fleet back to full strength once again? (Since OQG got an engine then re-entered the rotation at LAX the other day (with confusion among some why QF was flying LHRLAX))?
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
OQI should be on her way in a few minutes. C-check took a lot longer (4 months in total) following discovery and fixing of wing spar cracks!
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Analytic Flying@analyticflying

Qantas's A380s have been having a tough time again over the last week! 🔴OQG has been AOG at LHR since 3/7; she needs an engine change & waiting for replacement from LAX 🔴Fleet was already down to 9 frames with OQI needing several more weeks at DRS following discovery of wing spar cracks during her heavy check; she's now only due back next week 🔴OQH also had trouble with aircon issues 2/7, but she was back in service the following day Fleet is down to temporarily down to 8 frames with a schedule requiring 8 or 9 frames (depending on the day) → resulting in several cancellations on LAX routes!

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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
We wrote a story about communication of operational delays in the context of the policy debate regarding regulation of delays flights (see end of linked article). Hence our reference to "We probably sound like a broken record". So yes, we prefer spending our time writing informative stories 😉 analyticflying.com/p/eu261-theres…
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Ryan
Ryan@ryanb_lear·
@analyticflying @MoorIlkley It doesn’t need an explanation, it’s obviously operational reasons. Did the flight depart? Yes. Did it arrive with a slight delay? Yes. None story, spend time writing informative stories not fuelling clickbait nonsense like the above.
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
We probably sound like a broken record but airlines need to do a much better job at communicating. While this is a great burn by Qantas’s social media team, there are good reasons to board an aircraft without a full crew. Explaining this upfront would’ve been better!
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
@BLRAviation Nearly all airlines use sale and leaseback. The question is how they do it and the magnitude. VietJet might be more of an aircraft trading company than an airline!
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Bangalore Aviation
Bangalore Aviation@BLRAviation·
@analyticflying Sale and Lease Back is the standard business model for most newer airlines providing they use the cash wisely like Indigo. But it comes with significant forex risk. For Vietnam who is exporting its way to economic growth, risk is balanced. But in India it can become a nightmare.
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
Should we do a deep dive in VietJet Air's financials and explain how they've leveraged sale and leaseback deals to grow their business?
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
@ryanb_lear @MoorIlkley If you say so. We've spent plenty of time writing about the details that airlines share with customers regarding delays, advocating for greater transparency. There are good reasons that the airline would need to shift crews that wasn't explained.
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Ryan
Ryan@ryanb_lear·
@analyticflying @MoorIlkley The OG poster was given the explanation for the delay which was evidently communicated by the airline in detail… they were just looking for attention with their tweet…just like yours 🙄
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
@OhMyGerardz There's some, but a lot due to inability to manipulate slot times too much. In summer, BNE-SYD regularly hit 1:30 and that de facto defines scheduling.
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
@MoorIlkley Absolutely, and that may have actually impacted on delay (e.g. timing for Sydney arrival slot). Point is passenger is actually irate because of communication, not delay itself.
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Ilkley Moor
Ilkley Moor@MoorIlkley·
@analyticflying Given arrival (which is what counts) was 8 min late this seems a fuss about nothing!
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Oliver Knezevic
Oliver Knezevic@OliverKnezevic2·
@analyticflying oooo, considereing its been purchased rather than leased, will its interior get a refit? or will it remain with finnair interiors even once other AY a330s are gone?
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
VH-QPM registered with CASA yesterday. She's still in Shannon for repaint into Qantas livery (been there since 29 June). She'll be the 3rd former Finnair A330-300 to operated by Qantas, but unlike QPK & QPL, she's been purchased by Qantas!
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Analytic Flying@analyticflying

Finnair A330-300 OH-LTN returned to Helsinki on 17 April in all white livery ready for return to lessor. She's been in storage since then! Is this the additional A330-300 that Qantas has acquired (as mentioned during half year results presentation)? 📷Eeli/Jetphotos

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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
@BarryDa79113466 Capacity cover due to new aircraft delivery delays. It's fresh from a heavy check and commonality with existing fleet (including engines).
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
Over the last two years, Starlux's share price is down 25%. Meanwhile, EVA Air are up 16%! Family feuds are expensive!
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Analytic Flying@analyticflying

Starlux is an airline that seems to have a lot of fan boys and girls. The onboard product looks amazing, but before everyone gets all gooey, a reality check: 🔴It's a young airline fuelled by debt and lots of it! To put it in context, at the end of the last financial year their gross debt was 124% of revenue! Just how high is that? 🔴Let's compare to American Airlines, an airline that many argue is saddled by debt. AA's ratio is only 53%! By comparison, Qantas has a very strong balance sheet; debt is just 27% of revenue! 🔴Importantly, the debt is driven by investment in aircraft rather than operational losses. In fact, operations were cashflow positive last year. 🔴Last year they took on US$ 400 million in new loans, while generating cash through SLB agreements. They've since taken on even more debt and planning an equity issue despite share price being down a third since IPO 18 months ago. Generally, you don't issue equity when your share price is down that much unless you're a little desperate! 🔴They're very ambitious and growing incredibly quickly, and doing so with a highly leveraged balance sheet. Leverage requires rapid growth in revenue (and profit) or they'll end up in trouble quickly. Question is can revenue growth match their appetite for debt?

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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
Not really. We're seeing lightening strike twice with its successor. Despite starting with plenty of capital & very generous lease terms they're burning money! Fundamentally their business model doesn't work. Unlike shorthaul, they're unable to reduce costs relative to incumbents to justify flogging off tickets at bargain prices. Crew must stay over at outstations, utilisation isn't better than incumbents, etc. Cabin density just doesn't do enough! They've been incredibly well capitalised by a benevolent shareholder. So far pumped >$400 million in equity while carrying negligible external debt (shareholder taps are open).
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Ross 🛩️
Ross 🛩️@airline_king·
@analyticflying It was honestly a combination of both of what we’re mentioning and a lot more. I know that they were not a startup airline
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Ross 🛩️
Ross 🛩️@airline_king·
Took this 8 years ago. Bold ideas, just ill timed and didn’t make $$$ when you had so much debt.
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Analytic Flying
Analytic Flying@analyticflying·
@airline_king It wasn't a startup airline. Norwegian Air Shuttle has been around since the early 1990s. FWIW, it was the Max groundings in 2018 that caused the liquidity issues.
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Ross 🛩️
Ross 🛩️@airline_king·
Debt has everything to do with why airlines die, but is not the sole reason why this one blew up. Specifically my issue is with non aircraft debt (LOC, traditional loans, bonds, asset backed loans for liquidity). Many startup airlines are founded on a mix lf debt and equity, others take out mountains of it for liquidity or as a last ditch, and some have spectacularly blown up because of how leveraged they are. Non aviation businesses are struggling with this in the private credit meltdown rn. Back on subject- you were right, It was losing a ton of money, but when you have to pay out on non aircraft debt, it makes it that much harder to try to make it work. The 787s really screwed them in the end beyond the operational issues because they had to go out and get bonds and LOCs, should have just stuck with throwing 737MAX darts across the pond instead. This is also the airline that tried to fly to an alternative that wasn’t ORD for Chicago. That was a fun one.
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Keşfet

@Qantas @_marty_k @MoorIlkley @BLRAviation @ryanb_lear @OhMyGerardz @OliverKnezevic2 @elonmusk