Analytic Flying

📐The curious case of the declining "golden triangle" Its share of traffic inexplicably declined in the aftermath of the pandemic. We don't really know why but we tested some plausible ideas. Originally published in January, now with paywall removed. analyticflying.com/p/the-curious-…

@jareaumanar It's a big strategy shift and pushed by significant local incentives/subsidies. The fleet shortage should start to subside with new B787-9 deliveries to begin very shortly (first is days/weeks away). Will post on it shortly 😉

@analyticflying Air NZ adding 3 new medium to long haul non-stop routes out of Christchurch - likelihood they’ll get cut or reduced quickly due to their aircraft shortage?

@JayLoh78 @jareaumanar Virgin bought Tigerair Australia from Singapore. First 60% in 2014 for $35 million, and the remaining 40% in 2015 for $1. It represented a massive loss for Singapore relative to what they'd invested.

@analyticflying @jareaumanar If you want to be really technical Tigerair Australia was apart of the Virgin Australia group when it folded in 2020 and Singapore Airlines exposure was limited to 20% as that's what they owned of Virgin Australia at the time. They also lost on the franchise money as well.

Singapore Airlines has made four significant investments in foreign airlines and all have ended in failure. The 5th/6th ain’t looking good either.

@ConorMagee29 @sir_relaxacat Tall poppy syndrome?

@sir_relaxacat I don’t understand the Qantas hate. Yes, I’ve had some bad experiences, but I’ve had far worse experiences with Emirates, British Airways, American Airlines, Alaska Airlines and TAP Air Portugal. Qantas is generally pretty consistent and consistently good enough

Call me crazy but I (almost) always love flying Qantas.

It's not clear that the curfew is the constraint for their SYD flights in the way it is for SQ. One just has to look at their MEL flights which they cover from SYD pretty well in terms of connecting to/from DXB's connecting banks. They'd probably be more interested in the alternate catchment.

@analyticflying @sydwestagribus @Exec_Traveller Do you think the ME3 may look to use WSIA similar to Singapore with after curfew movements?

Qatar and Emirates (and Etihad) coming to Western Sydney International Airport soon. Airlines to take advantage of no curfew at WSI. 7 flights per week OK'd by Govt ✈️ #WSI Emirates, Qatar cleared for Western Sydney airport takeoff executivetraveller.com/news/emirates-… via @Exec_Traveller

@jasonprgressive The reason for the investments can often be more complex than just a financial return. The goals of their investments in Australasia have been complex & nuanced, seeking market access, controlling feed, pressuring competitors, etc. One might argue they knew/understood the risks.

@analyticflying Why do they keep doing it to themselves? What is the board doing?

@RrnRaindeer They can't blame everything on McKinsey 🤣 Their Australasian acquisitions had a clear strategy of controlling feed and putting pressure on competitors. They were willing to take some capital losses to achieve this. It was rational & worked, just cost a lot of money.

@analyticflying They probably had the same shitty consultants as Swissair

@urbanavgeek It's a lot more than just Pakistani airspace and significant damage has been done to the balance sheet making financing and taking delivery of that fancy new fleet very challenging. It'll take years for Singapore to recover their investment, if ever.

@analyticflying It's def a tough time, but if the Pak airspace situation gets sorted, suddenly the story changes. Even with high fuel prices, AI's newer planes (~50% of their fleet by end of yr) are superb. I'd bet more than a few $$$ that AI is desperately lobbying the Govt. of India.

@JayLoh78 @jareaumanar Probably semantics, but didn't include it (and some of the other Tigerair franchises) since they had a minority holding through a subsidiary. Tigerair Australia was different in that regard.

@analyticflying @jareaumanar You forgot Tigerair Mandala (Indonesia). That barely lasted two years before folding.

@_djsuvan_ Well Etihad didn’t fare much better (financially) than its investments for most of its existence.

@analyticflying Learning from the 🐐 Etihad

@PhiziksYT @LachlanB_ @sydwestagribus @Exec_Traveller They also signed a BASA with El Salvador. Why isn’t everyone speaking about that?!?! 🤣

@LachlanB_ @analyticflying @sydwestagribus @Exec_Traveller Return of EK77Ws to Sydney?

@unraveaero Had to give it the benefit of the doubt since it's still an active investment. Exited all others, either at big losses or getting wiped out in bankrupcy.

@analyticflying They've almost completely written down their investment in Vistara / Air India so you can add them to the list of failures

@_colourmeamused @jareaumanar Air New Zealand, Virgin Atlantic, Virgin Australia, Tigerair Australia, Vistara, Air India.

@jareaumanar @analyticflying Vistara, Tiger? (iirc)

@jareaumanar Air New Zealand, Virgin Atlantic, Virgin Australia, Tigerair Australia, Vistara, Air India. They never directly held shares in Ansett. They tried, but the deal fell through.

@analyticflying Virgin Australia, Air India, Ansett Australia - who are the other three?

@satvikrsharma To be fair, a lot of Air India's current problems are exogenous, but the risks were always there.

@analyticflying LKY even m warned against it. Esp given India’s regulatory nightmare and freakish labour laws and aviation regulators

@_marty_k Vistara was #5 and burnt cash. The bleeding was stoped by merging it into Air India that's also now bleeding cash, arguably due to exogenous reasons though.

@analyticflying I’m guessing the current one you’re referring to is AI that’s got a few challenges, but why 5th/6th uncertainty?

@OlivierJoffet @flynorse Doubtful that there will be any buyers. What are you buying? A few good leases and a whole lot of debt? They sell a lot of cheap tickets, but never had a clear strategy to lower costs other than cabin density.

🇳🇴✈️🥶 Here we are… Nothing really surprising with @flynorse at this point. ▪️No clear strategy, ▪️ Shrinking network, ▪️ No routes backbones to rely on, ▪️No distinctive price points, … Probably better to sell rather than continue dig from a rabbit hole to another. 🤯🤔

@FreddyFreakout1 Don’t give James any ideas!

@analyticflying A gallon of petrol and a match is the only way of recovering any investment.

It's been a year since Global Airlines blew money on two flights from Glasgow & Manchester to New York, but what's happened since? Is it time to put this to bed? A380 stored at Tarbes since July. Fanciful Saudi investment amounted to nothing. Asquith in hiding after putting a sticker on a Hi Fly A340 for a few weeks. Amazing how some people fell for it, Gamer Class and all!

@sydwestagribus @NotrealHumphrey @Exec_Traveller Never said there were 14 bridges, simply 14 narrow bodies at the contact stands 😉

@analyticflying @NotrealHumphrey @Exec_Traveller 7 gates with 13 Aerobridges in total. 13 aircraft

@NotrealHumphrey @sydwestagribus @Exec_Traveller Ah yes, it'll be certified for code F, so up to A380 (runways, taxiways, etc). Whether ground handlers will be equiped to handle it will be another story, but if an operator wants to fly A380 on scheduled flights then I'm pretty sure the ground handlers will do it.

@analyticflying @sydwestagribus @Exec_Traveller Sorry I should have better phased my question, can it handle a A380 or B777 A350 is its limit ?