Andrew Dumont

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Andrew Dumont

Andrew Dumont

@AndrewDumont

Acquiring startups that VCs abandon @ https://t.co/HENd11aqin. Operator and investor. Formerly: $TINY, @betaworks, @bitly, @moz, @stampedHQ

Seattle, WA Katılım Haziran 2008
997 Takip Edilen14.7K Takipçiler
Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
Similar math is in play for $CRM, $NOW, $FIG and the rest of the SaaS complex. Can they drop further? Sure, but the risk reward equation is quite good here. Public markets often misprice based on fear, and that's exactly what I believe is happening here. *Not financial advice
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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
Let's look at an example in public markets. We'll use $HUBS. YoY revenue growth is 21% (and accelerating) while remaining profitable. This business is now trading under 3 times revenue, depending on how you factor in stock based comp and cash on hand.
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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
I believe the bottom is largely in for public market SaaS companies. We spend all day valuing private software companies at curious.vc and the discrepancy between public and private markets is significant.
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Andrew Dumont retweetledi
Stock Market Nerd
Stock Market Nerd@StockMarketNerd·
$FIG beat & raise. $TWLO beat & raise. $TEAM beat & raise. Three companies at the heart of the “software is dead” argument. Continuing to perform better than expected with upbeat forward-looking commentary. If AI isn’t killing these three…….
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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
Moral of the story: don't play with a guy that's confident enough to rock a turtle neck under a quarter zip.
Milk Road AI@MilkRoadAI

The man who turned 225 million dollars into 5.5 billion dollars explained on camera exactly why he made his biggest bet. This is Leopold Aschenbrenner, the same person whose Bloom Energy position is now worth close to 2 billion dollars after Oracle's 2.8 gigawatt fuel cell deal laying out the power math that drove every investment decision his fund has made. In 2022, the GPT-4 training cluster consumed roughly 10 megawatts of power and cost about 500 million dollars. AI compute has been scaling at roughly half an order of magnitude per year meaning the largest training cluster doubles in power requirement every 12 to 18 months without stopping. By 2024, the largest cluster was approximately 100 megawatts, the equivalent of 100,000 high-end GPUs and costs in the billions. By 2026, right now, the leading training cluster requires a full gigawatt of continuous power and that is the output of a large nuclear reactor. By 2028, the projection reaches 10 gigawatts, more electricity than most US states generate in total. By 2030, the trillion-dollar cluster, 100 gigawatts, over 20 percent of everything the United States currently produces in electricity, consumed by a single AI training installation. And that is just the training cluster. Inference, the continuous compute required to actually run AI products for hundreds of millions of users requires multiples of that on top. Meanwhile, total US electricity production has barely grown five percent over the last decade and the grid was not built for this. And the transformer shortage, the switchgear backorders, and the canceled data center projects that are making headlines right now are the first visible symptoms of a power system hitting a wall that Aschenbrenner saw coming years before the rest of the market. This is exactly why he built a 875 million dollar position in Bloom Energy, a company that generates electricity directly at the data center site using fuel cells, completely bypassing the grid bottleneck that is already stopping half of all planned US data centers from opening on schedule. The thesis was never complicated. The bottleneck in AI is not the models, not the chips, and not the software. The bottleneck is whether civilization can generate enough electricity to run the machines fast enough to matter.

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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
We're at an inflection point in employment, and as a result, demand. This paper should be required reading for the current moment of AI transformation and what's coming. arxiv.org/html/2603.2061…
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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
AI is the first technology I can remember (closest was social media in 2008) with such broad interest, awareness, and adoption SO EARLY in the cycle. My most non-technical friends are vibe coding, spinning up OpenClaw. Genie is out of the bottle. Going to be a wild ride.
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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
"but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly." We may be on the verge of a major employment crisis. Smaller teams, more digital agents, better business performance.
jack@jack

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
Evergreen tweet it seems.
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont

#GOOG had $13B in earnings in Q3 alone, #META had $4B. These companies should be investing as much as possible in future growth, that’s how they remain behemoths. As should every tech company with meaningful earnings. Downturns are exactly when you should (responsibly) lean in.

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Ankur Nagpal
Ankur Nagpal@ankurnagpal·
This is the most valuable resource I have ever created I wrote a brand new, extremely detailed Notion guide on every single strategy to save money on taxes The best of my content in a single place Want a free copy? - Like / RT this post - Reply with "GUIDE" and I'll DM you
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Dan Shipper 📧
Dan Shipper 📧@danshipper·
is anyone doing good AI-first job pages for companies? at a point where we need one for @every and i really don't want to use a legacy tool
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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
I'm just so happy for my friend @danshipper and the @every team on their well-deserved recognition in the NYT. nyti.ms/3H4xFa4 Dan committed to the craft and the vision came into view. In a world where software is increasingly commoditized, distribution is a premium.
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Lenny Rachitsky
Lenny Rachitsky@lennysan·
If you're looking to level up your writing skills, these three books have helped me the most
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Joshua Kushner
Joshua Kushner@JoshuaKushner·
We are humbled to announce Thrive Holdings, a permanent capital vehicle dedicated to investing in, acquiring, and operating businesses for the long term. The mission of Thrive Holdings is to transform enterprises through the strategic application of technology to foster enduring growth. Since inception, Thrive has always invested in and built companies at the same time. Everything we do is informed by the mentality and lessons we have learned as founders ourselves. At Thrive, our steadfast commitment to being concentrated in both people and ideas will always guide our strategy. To that end, we are excited to partner with businesses that have the potential for sustained prosperity over many decades. thriveholdings.com
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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
@mylesmarino @carrynointerest We’re exclusively focused on majority investments, given that need to shift culture and restructure the business for long-term profitability. This need became blatantly obvious as we invested in companies at the pre-seed and seed stage.
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Myles Marino
Myles Marino@mylesmarino·
@AndrewDumont @carrynointerest How does that mission contend with minority investments? Presumably those are more difficult to influence the culture, no? Or is it more they align with the culture so there is a selection bias?
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carried_no_interest
carried_no_interest@carrynointerest·
The Venture Capital Apocalypse is coming...it might even be here already. The venture capital asset class is facing a watershed moment. Orphaned/Zombie VC software companies are everywhere. I'm a 'DATA DRIVEN' guy so I'm going to show you 6 graphs that illustrate how dire the situation is.
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Andrew Dumont
Andrew Dumont@AndrewDumont·
@carrynointerest You're exactly right.Simply too waste, too much chasing unsustainable growth. We @ curious.vc exist to help shift the culture to sustainability and hopefully prevent these companies from shutting down after VCs abandon them.
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carried_no_interest
carried_no_interest@carrynointerest·
So, where do we go from here? 1) Many VCs will likely shut down. This sucks. 2) I think the top VC funds will be fine. There will always be generational businesses founded every year. Top VCs will get the pick of the litter. They will downsize AUM. 3) Overall LP allocation to VC will likely go down. 4) There will be many 'orphaned' VC backed software companies that don't have a path forward in the new environment. IF you have >$10mm in ARR and want out, DM me. I'll help you find a solution. Don't work the rest of your life for an outcome that's unlikely.
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