andy...banks

@ewwdatsmellll @NoVA_Campaigns @WinsomeSears I'm coming back here on Tuesday to laugh at you

@NoVA_Campaigns @WinsomeSears Richmond burbs have way more No than yes signs. Including some large No signs on main roads at homes and names where I’ve never seen a political sign before.

There are significantly more “Vote NO” signs around Fairfax & Arlington VA in 2026 than there were for @WinsomeSears in 2025

@AlexTheWonder9 @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen And besides demographics in Georgia are more favorable to democrats today than in 2020 and add a rapidly left trending ATL suburbs and you get a dem victory in GA

@andy_banka @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen You sound confident that whoever the dem nominee is in 28 will win Ga. Right now I doubt it, especially if the nominee on the R side is Rubio or Vance

I don’t have much faith in the GOP to hold that Wisconsin senate seat in 2028 so the argument of having 50, 51, or 52 senate seats after this year is pretty substantial.

@AlexTheWonder9 @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen He won in 2020 bud that's why he is senator

@andy_banka @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen Ossoff will win a second term and the only reason he will is because the environment is going to be D+10. He shouldn’t even be Senator and he lost in 2020.

@AlexTheWonder9 @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen If Biden can win GA..any other generic white democrat can win it especially after a trump second term

@AlexTheWonder9 @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen You should not be boasting about Georgia being closer up ballot because that's more important..it doesn't help you that dems win the senate race in 2026/28 and win its EC votes in 2028

@andy_banka @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen I said it’s more of a red state than a blue one. They’ve been close for president in recent years but continue to vote for republican governors, republican state legislatures and down ballot republicans won by over 5 total. The only reason there’s two dem senators is luck.

@AlexTheWonder9 @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen And btw "continue" is a bit of a slack word there because 2022 was a dem president midterm...Republicans were supposed to win in GA..Warnock still won by 3 though

@AlexTheWonder9 @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen And incumbency is a big factor too....and approval ratings..both ossoff and Warnock are fairly popular and both are fundraising machines

@andy_banka @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen Rapidly trending left sure but it’s still more of a red state than a blue state. The only swing state senator I don’t think republicans have a shot to take out is Kelly.

@AlexTheWonder9 @moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen Dude Warnock would beat anybody even in 2024...Georgia is rapidly trending left

@moonbeamer6 @payer_single @scott_kernen Also who did you say would win the very obvious election of 2024?

@daytonadandy @OpenSourceZone They don't even need that much to flip the house

@OpenSourceZone 6 points, even if it was true, which it’s not, is still just not good enough

RealClearPolitics generic ballot: 🔵 +5.6 Markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Democratic sweep.

@TeamZissou @ChristianHeiens There are more democrats in va than both indies and Republicans and indies in VA generally lean left

@ChristianHeiens I think you need to consider independents. A lot of them voted for Spanberger in 2025 thinking she was a moderate. These folks are not on board with an extreme gerrymander OR her radical policies (assault weapons ban). IF they come out, no wins.

With just five days to go until the Virginia gerrymandering referendum, I've just run the same early vote model that I used in 2021, 2024, and 2025. The results give me an early vote electorate of: 🔴GOP: 35.99% 🔵Dems: 64.01% That's pretty much the ballgame right there. I'm sure "No" will do significantly better than Sears did last November, but national Republicans really just abandoned this fight before it even began. My gut tells me that the GOP is going to fall just short of what it really needed to get on both the persuasion and turnout fronts. I'm expecting "Yes" to win by about 3-7 points. The Supreme Court of Virginia should throw this entire case out because Democrats violated the state constitution and state law in order to even get this referendum on the ballot in the first place (to say nothing of the explicitly partisan language itself), but considering the court is filled with cowards, I'm not holding my breath that they'll do the right thing.

@DonBFitz @Tracy2087148 @Cernovich @MZHemingway He won't even get to the final confirmation process thanks to Thom tillis...he won't be a judge

@Tracy2087148 @Cernovich @MZHemingway I believe you are incorrect. The Bar of California has no authority over any Judicial appointment.

He wrote a memo. The memo wasn’t enacted as policy. This is a disgrace.

@Steve72354669 @earlyvotedata In a trump midterm that's something to brag about

@earlyvotedata He literally never voted with Trump once.

Ossoff is strong, so this might only go down with good polling and good economic news. His war chest is significant, the GOP will need to spend a lot here. Probably in the top three expensive senate races, with NC and TX being the others.

@WVValkeryie The referendum is still passing

@andy_banka Lowest rating in two centuries for any Virginia Governor in first 100 days ….ROFFLMAO.

I’m genuinely curious, when this ballot measure passes, are the republicans going to admit that Virginia supports fighting back against the power grab of this federal administration? VOTE YES VIRGINIA!

@WVValkeryie If a +1 approval is in the toilet...what would you call trumps approval which is in the negative?

@andy_banka Is that why Spanbergers polls are in the toilet?

@Ret_Wo3 😛😛😛😛😛

@andy_banka @DelJessAnderson You got nothing.,.weak ass shit. I’m owning you dutty marga johncrow. You can’t even clown right……🤫🤫🤫🤫🤣😂

@Ret_Wo3 Let's not get distracted hoe😂😂😂you have to work to do...election is next week go knock on doors or smt..that's they Republicans always lose its all about meme bullshit and not real life😂😂😂

@andy_banka Bro I can cook all day. You gotta get better with your jokes and insults to play in America my guy. Step your game up.

@Ret_Wo3 What vehicle do you own? Show me the registration 😂😂

@andy_banka @DelJessAnderson 🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱

@Ret_Wo3 @DelJessAnderson Hey who gave you the right to put my house up for the entire world to see...that's not nice you know🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

@andy_banka @DelJessAnderson This your house Delroy? Looks nice. Is it ghetto blue? Or garrison green! 🤣😂🤣😂. What you got now bumbaclot? Nothing…..You’re cooked homeboy!