
andychoai
428 posts









My thesis on long term EV market is changing. I used to think EVs would bankrupt legacy ICE and that there would be considerable consolidation in the market. I no longer expect this to happen. The reason for this change? Governments have pivoted to align EV incentives with PHEVs. Just look at the IRA for a good example. Canada, too, offers the same incentives for EV as for PHEV. PHEVs are the legacy lifeline. And legacy auto brands are very good at advertising and education, something Tesla refuses to do. Since Tesla’s share of voice is non-existent, the consumer only hears one story. This will ultimately hurt Tesla longer term as the consumer increasingly chooses PHEV over ICE and EV. And since Tesla is the only pure EV manufacturer with any size outside of China, it is unlikely to influence government policy when the balance of the industry (i.e. everyone else) is still building ICE. So what does this mean? More competition and more division of profits among industry players.

























