@angus.tatchell.me

@sunnyolive108 @MarioNawfal Deception yes. All sides play this game. Trump especially. On Mojtaba, I don't discount the possibility he's dead. But it may just be for the propaganda win of "replacing Khamenei w another Khamenei". Makes the regime look immovable. But if anyone runs the show, it's the IRGC.

@sunnyolive108 @MarioNawfal 2. Even a faction without the support of the armed forces has no chance of overturning the military command structure. And trying to make such a coup in this moment, while opening the strait, is quite an odd choice. Why would a rogue tweet be your attempt at a power grab?

🚨🇮🇷 The confusion over Hormuz reveals something deeper: Iran has a power struggle in real time... The contradictions make sense when you understand who's speaking for Iran right now. Foreign Minister Araghchi, representing the elected government and the diplomatic track, said Friday the Strait was open. Earlier today the IRGC Navy said the opposite: closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade. Two Iranian institutions publicly contradicting each other within 24 hours. The deeper issue is that nobody is clearly in charge. Ali Khamenei was killed on day one. The clerics appointed his son Mojtaba, but he hasn't appeared in public since. It isn't even clear what role he plays in daily governance. The supreme leader who traditionally made final calls on national security is either unable or unwilling to resolve the split between his diplomats and his generals. The IRGC has always been the real power in Iran, with its own navy, ground forces, intelligence, and economic empire. With the traditional religious authority fractured, the Guards are increasingly making decisions that the Foreign Ministry then has to explain to the world. Monday's talks in Islamabad walk into this reality. Vance will be negotiating with representatives who may not speak for the people actually making military decisions. Agreements reached at the table could get contradicted by the IRGC before the delegation even lands back in Tehran. This is the hidden cost of decapitation strikes. The U.S. and Israel eliminated Iran's leadership hoping moderates would emerge. Instead, they created a vacuum where hardliners run operations while diplomats try to negotiate peace for a country that doesn't have one clear voice right now. Source: WSJ

@sunnyolive108 @MarioNawfal And so the "idiot" in question on the IRGC radio call was, for those reasons, much more likely to be Trump than Araghchi.

@sunnyolive108 @MarioNawfal Plus Ghalibaf then announcing the strait wasn't opened because of the US maximalist demands and ceasefire violations aligns with this series of events. So I'm not saying there's not a power struggle. There always is, in every power structure. But I don't see this as part of one

@MarioNawfal Yh this was a fun market tdy

Polymarket traders slammed the brakes hard! Odds of commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by the end of April? Crashed to just 24% after Iran announced it's fully closing the lane again. And that's not an isolated phenomenon either; markets officially checked out. Any hope we might have had is shrinking fast.

@sunnyolive108 @MarioNawfal Can you explain why you think Mario's reading is more likely correct? I'm genuinely curious to hear your theory, because Mario hasn't explained why he's reading it that way.

@sunnyolive108 @MarioNawfal It doesn't take an above average IQ to realise it's much more likely the Iranian Navy wouldn't call their own FM an idiot on marine radio, rather than Trump, who started tweeting things that clearly broke whatever deal had been agreed that day to open the strait...

@sunnyolive108 @MarioNawfal Well they did... that's the "idiot" message Mario referred to and posted. Maybe worth looking into all of this before throwing your questionable opinions around?

@angustatchell @MarioNawfal Aahh so you are saying instead of communicating this to said vessels they rather shot at them. Lol thanks for your theory dude

@MSMInsider @MarioNawfal But wt evidence is there of a rift between the two? Mario's case for this is built on a very questionable interpretation that IRGC referred to FM Araghchi as an "idiot" for declaring strait open - rather than Trump. As I explained, much more likely the rift was w Trump.

@angustatchell @MarioNawfal I think the bigger issue - as Mario correct points out -- is that Iran is controlled by two different factions right now. You have the government and you have the IRGC. The government is trying to negotiate, whereas the IRGC realizes their days are numbered and want to continue.

@MarioNawfal And I think the fact the tankers that got fired on said they were "on the list" of IRGC approved vessels strongly suggests they did intend to open, but then reverted this decision after Trump snaked them by trying to keep up the US blockade.

@MarioNawfal Mario I think you're reading this wrong. After Araghchi said Hormuz was open, Trump thanked him but then stated US blockade would remain. Then Iran said strait was not opening. My guess is US agreed w Iran to lift blockade if they did, then rug pulled. Makes much more sense.

🚨 Iran said Sunday it has exchanged messages with the United States, but that the US’ demands remained “excessive”. Read more: #5142" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">en.royanews.tv/news/69055#5142