Ankur Agarwala

Surprised by the war itself? Surprised by Trump's no TACOing? Following the bulls in a bear market? Have not played long on crude? Then you haven't been listening to my predictions! Here's them again, spelt out in some big, headline points: - Apr 1-5 and Apr 18-21, strong escalation in war - After 1st week of May 2026, some lull may come; after mid-July 2026, re-escalation, and very hot war to continue till mid-July 2027 - UAE & Saudis to join the war directly - UAE & Saudis may not exist as states anymore for long - Iran to score some major tactical victories, on top of the strategic ones, in the rest of 2026 - Iran to gain an ally in the next 3 months (I don't know who, but I suspect Iraq, i.e. Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani) - Late 2026 & early 2027 may bring a very difficult time for Israel - A very grim outlook for the U.S. between now and March 2027: dollar about to crash, Vance about to take over from Trump as Prez, and AI bubble set to crash (I'd say after late Apr 2026) Other areas: - Russia may open a new front soon, attacking Moldova - China strongly likely to make a move on Taiwan during May-July 2026: it may be swift and successful - East Asia theatre of war to also open soon after Taiwan's taking over - Putin to fall by the end of 2027 Longer term: - Turkey to become a dominant power in the world over the next few decades - War or warlike conditions to prevail in the area for more than a decade, in some areas till nearly the end of the century! For more, I hope you figure out where to find me!

Can someone explain why the US was still enforcing the blockade during a period of formal ceasefire when Iran had publicly committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and allowing ships to sail through but the US insists on the blockade until a deal was finalized? Just because?

BREAKING: New data shows that zero oil tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz today. It appears that the Strait of Hormuz is now completely closed for the first time in history. The US “blockade” and Iran’s closure are in full force.

@LOLmaarLo Very, very tough next 6 years for India.

@ankurwriter Where is India in this ?

Surprised by the war itself? Surprised by Trump's no TACOing? Following the bulls in a bear market? Have not played long on crude? Then you haven't been listening to my predictions! Here's them again, spelt out in some big, headline points: - Apr 1-5 and Apr 18-21, strong escalation in war - After 1st week of May 2026, some lull may come; after mid-July 2026, re-escalation, and very hot war to continue till mid-July 2027 - UAE & Saudis to join the war directly - UAE & Saudis may not exist as states anymore for long - Iran to score some major tactical victories, on top of the strategic ones, in the rest of 2026 - Iran to gain an ally in the next 3 months (I don't know who, but I suspect Iraq, i.e. Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani) - Late 2026 & early 2027 may bring a very difficult time for Israel - A very grim outlook for the U.S. between now and March 2027: dollar about to crash, Vance about to take over from Trump as Prez, and AI bubble set to crash (I'd say after late Apr 2026) Other areas: - Russia may open a new front soon, attacking Moldova - China strongly likely to make a move on Taiwan during May-July 2026: it may be swift and successful - East Asia theatre of war to also open soon after Taiwan's taking over - Putin to fall by the end of 2027 Longer term: - Turkey to become a dominant power in the world over the next few decades - War or warlike conditions to prevail in the area for more than a decade, in some areas till nearly the end of the century! For more, I hope you figure out where to find me!

8 children have been shot dead in Shreveport, Louisiana, by a gunman, also shot dead by the police, on Apr 19. The incident occurs very close to a prediction line specifically marked for notable incidents involving violence or aggression during Apr 8-19. #Shreveport #Louisiana

Spain announces it will not broadcast Eurovision due to Israel’s participation | The Jerusalem Post share.google/dWVnixB4QgtJN1…

Why will Iran agree to meet Israeli assets? Basically, no pretence of talks for now, only war.

So far, astrology has chimed very well with weekends, so Trump has been able to play the markets. But now it's gonna break, for April 21-22 look to be the most violent days on the horizon, and in fact till around May 7-8, there's not much letup even thereafter. Bears dancing?

@Robert_E_Kelly Europe, though, or at least the EU, itself is a dead letter.

My guess on the big, medium-term take-aways from the Iran war 1. Iran has learned that it can close & charge Hormuz at will 2. China has learned that the US is overstretched 3. Europe has learned NATO is a dead letter until the GOP de-trumpizes, which is at least a decade away

@Mallufideintent Not really. Know your facts first. The Indian ships tried to make a run, that's they were fired upon. And Iranian sub was attacked, rather, after coming from a naval exercise in India, something which put India in a shady light.

Why did the IRGC attack Indian flagged vessels? Simple. They needed to make a statement about their control on the Strait of Hormuz. They needed a target symbolically big enough to make a noise. So Maltese and Panamanian vessels ruled out. Amongst the bigger countries - Russia and China are their allies. That left India, the neighbourhood softie which makes grand statements and lofty announcements, without the capability, will, or apetite to do anything of consequence in retaliation. It is also a fence sitter. That's why Indian flagged vessels were chosen. Even the fact that India sheltered an Iranian Naval vessel and its crew at the height of hostilities was set aside. That's the real hole India's foreign and security apparatus has to dig its way out of.

@HeyUnotYou @Yash54516952 Because you lack the logic to understand something. I don't change anything. I predict events for each date of the month. For example, the April 2026 overview was posted on March 22 here: astroweatherwatch.substack.com/p/april-2026-w…

@Yash54516952 @ankurwriter Yeah right, I have been following his post. He says april 1 - 3 and then changes it to April 5-7 it's like a sliding window And if something happens after a year he will tell "As predicted by me" He is doing a shitshow just like his face 🤡

An update: While I've long predicted Apr 19-21 as possibly a very difficult period, my focus now is on Apr 22 morning (UTC). There may be significant events on Apr 22 morning. Major massacre, strike or violent event. In some part of the world, strong quake, too, could occur.

Predictions, both short and long term, for Lebanon are now published here: palmistankur.com/lebanon-spring… In the very near term, 21-26 Apr may bring strong violence. In the long term, sustainable peace only returns in the next century. #Lebanon

@umachingunde @kynakwado @dieworkwear Etymology does not mean the word is known. Hardly anyone in India or Pakistan means what seersucker is, unless they are really into such stuff

@kynakwado @dieworkwear Seersucker originated from the sub continent and the origin of the word is Persian (sheer shakar meaning milk and sugar so yes people in Pakistan are probably aware as are India

Interesting to me that when you see men on the global stage, beautiful Western-style tailoring is often worn by men from non-Western countries. Pictured here is Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistan), Akinwumi Adesina (Nigeria), and Naruhito (Japan).

@johnstanly Geography is king in every single element of life, not just geopolitics. Even the way we survive and mate.

In geopolitics, there's only one permanent king and that's geography.

@vijayeteindriye @AnuragM186 @himganj153 OK, thanks for admitting you didn't have any argument to begin with. When people start personal insults, they've admitted that.

@ankurwriter @AnuragM186 @himganj153 ‘Call them as’ ok gavaar

LMAO

@Yash54516952 paagal aap lagte hain, ki raat ke baarah baje ko kisi on-off switch ki tarah samajhte hain.

@ankurwriter ab 22 pr aa gye, fir 23, fir 24, fir next week, fir next month, fir next year.... 🤡 public ko Pagal banao bas 🤡

Around 1000 homes destroyed on Apr 19 in a massive blaze near Sandakan (Malaysia), very close to a prediction line for notable malefic incidents given for Apr 16-25. As repeatedly warned, Apr 19-22 brings a strong period for violence, fires/explosions & major accidents. #Sandakan

@TOzgokmen Finally someone who writes sensibly and in plain language.

GUESSTIMATES ON WAR TRAJECTORY: Imo, there is no diplomatic solution to this war, because: 1) If USA leaves the region, Iran becomes a global superpower & US will have deserted Israel, which is politically impossible due to domestic dynamics. 2) Iran will not willingly hand over nuclear, open Hormuz or change regime. Hence the war will resume soon shortly... 3) However, US (or Israel) cannot win this war just like US could not win against Vietnam or Afghanistan, simply because Iranians live there & are defending their country, cannot go anywhere else, no country is powerful enough to invade Iran and US is fighting from 10k miles away, with a partial military allocation. 4) US cannot nuke Iran because Iranians have at least 1000 pounds of weapons grade nuclear material and the step to a bomb from there is simple; so they have nuclear bombs & nobody will take the chance for trigger a nuclear war in the Middle East. 5) By the same token, Israel cannot nuke Iran either because Israel is a tiny country geographically & retalliation could wipe it all out. 6) US cannot destroy Iranian energy facilities because those attack will have to come from Saudi lands and in return Iran will destroy Saudi facilities. 6) Any attack using ground troops will fail, because Iran is like a fortress and supply lines will be cut; no tanks can drive in Iran. However, this will be most probably the next step in the escalation ladder. 7) If air bombing continues, Iranian missiles will continue to destroy Israel and GCC. 8) Economic impacts of this war will start appearing in a few months while political impacts for US will emerge in midterm elections in November. These are some timelines for turning points. All of these things were clear way in advance, yet S & Israel started this war anyway. This tells me that the war will continue because we are not dealing with logical & sensible leaders. How will this war end? This war will end just like Vietnam & Afghanistan: US (and Israel) will remain on escalation ladder for as long as they can and then stop & retreat as their economies and public support for this war collapse, or when they run out of ammunition due to rare earth shortage, fuel shortage, troop shortage, leader willing to attack shortage etc. When current circumstances change... When? I have no idea... could be in 2027 or 2029 or later... I very much doubt that tis war ends sometime in 2026... such wars never ends fast. Implication for global economy? Probably immense...

Araghchi’s tweet yesterday was meant to give an opportunity to Trump to deescalate and get out of the war. But instead of understanding this and accepting the exit he’s been offered, he declared that the blockade on Iran will continue and tried to make it look like Iran has surrendered. This is similar to what he did in Pakistan: he accepted Iran’s terms to get a meeting, but as soon as Vance got there, he demanded Iran’s surrender.

This is something that flashed on me while researching more on the Nakba. History is the best teacher & guide to know the future.

Or major accident.