Alex McCauley

@avemii @rohindhar Was just about to post this. Spring 2027 could be nutty.

@rohindhar It would actually be six months after the IPO date because lockups expire. So whatever it is, plus six months is when competition will heat up, unless people borrow against their equity, which could be possible.

The San Francisco real estate market goes into hibernation in July and August (buyers are traveling so sellers don’t list, also the weather can be gloomy) The result is the next 2-3 weeks (beginning of June) are the last major burst of new listings till the fall And if the AI labs IPO in the Fall, expect *a lot* of listings then (but also a lot of competition from newly liquid buyers)

@daniel_w_owens Is the new strategy to make the Mission the containment zone, since business travelers and tourists don’t go there, in an attempt to clean up the city’s image/convention/corporate/tourist experience?

@rohindhar Completely agree. I remember many people in 2015 saying “don’t buy, we’re in a bubble!” because the price jump seemed too extreme. Also, the 2008-2012 downturn was unusually large. People have a recency bias and are waiting for another 20% drop. That’s unlikely to happen again.

San Francisco median single home prices over the last 20 years The last “bull market” was from 2012 to 2022, a ten year run For those positing that we’re in a bubble that's about to immediately burst, we are only in year *one* of this new up-market History isn't guaranteed to repeat, but in San Francisco it's been a cycle of 6-8 years of a roaring housing price escalation before a two year correction that gives up some of the gains. Massive boom, medium bust. Rinse and repeat. There is a no precedent for a "one year boom" If I had to venture, would say we are in the early days of the next San Francisco housing bull market. The AI company IPOs have yet to hit. There are so many startups that are on the verge of becoming massive companies. There is no virtually new supply of housing being built. There isn't even much interest among developers to build, despite eye popping rents and home prices. We could just be in year one of the boom, only now just catching up to 2022 nominal prices

@zachklein Nah, unfortunately @rohindhar is misleading folks here. The modern place sells for more on a per-foot basis pretty much every time. That's why flippers do it. He's conflating "over asking" - which can be manipulated by the seller by listing artificially low, w/ per-foot value

Finally, the market is rejecting the “slick” fad. Life will find a way.

@rohindhar There's a diff between over asking and actual sold price per square foot, though. Sale price per foot is the only metric that matters...over asking means very little. The new modernized place consistently sells for a higher PPSF, otherwise flippers wouldn't do it over and over.

If you look at the homes that sell for way over asking price in San Francisco, almost none of them have modern design Yet house flippers solely bring homes to market with wide plank flooring, LED light strips embedded in the walls, etc etc Much better to pursue a traditional design I think and that is what the market in San Francisco rewards Something that looked good a hundred years ago and still looks good today

@antoniogm Divis still has a ton of upside potential as well. There are a bunch of industrial / legacy uses that will be replaced by apartments with ground floor retail in the next boom. Divis is flat, central, has a ton of parks nearby, freeway access...very good bones.

Not sure what it is, but NoPa has become absolute strollerville, even more so than Noe Valley. I'm old enough to have lived there when it was still just Western Addition(ish).

@Camp4 @CoffeeBlackMD Aren’t supplements / vitamins in the same category though? Thats the rationale I hear from vitamin-takers - only upside. Yet I saw in another post you don’t take any.

@CoffeeBlackMD It’s an asymmetric bet. Zero downside and significant upside potential. If you stack enough asymmetric bets, some of them will pay off massively.

I think it’s time for me to say again that idk if grounding is “real” but I want it to be.

@dvlamoen @brezina @yimbyism More than 50% of the land is allocated to a hospital, corporate offices and a sports arena..not easy to make those charming. YIMBYs prefer six stories à la Paris and lots of green space…they did that. I agree the streets could be narrower but in 10-20 years we’ll know more…

@brezina @anm @yimbyism I mean a curve or two and some outdoor seating for the restaurants would have gone a long way…

Mission Bay redevelopment was one of the biggest wastes of prime land in the country. Embarrassingly low density. It's built as if it was on some Phoenix light rail corridor. Actually, I'm pretty sure you could build even denser in Phoenix.

@dvlamoen @brezina @yimbyism My only counterpoint is that Mission Bay is not done yet. It’s under construction and still filling in. Trees are still maturing, the school needs to be built, and there are still lots of housing units still to be built. It’s hard for a brand new neighborhood to have a soul.

@brezina @yimbyism For a city that is one of the world’s top places for innovation, it’s crazy how so much of what we know about urban design was just ignored. It’s soulless, lifeless and could have been so much better. For what it’s worth Norman Foster and others did try. City politics.

@jamessamsp @MclovinSpecial @rohindhar This was definitely an “up and coming” thesis, extremely central location, you could tell yourself the story…the problem was they bought at a price point ($1500/foot) as if it was already a mature market. Paid top dollar for something that hadn’t materialized yet.

@MclovinSpecial @rohindhar That area was rough for decades and the lockdowns did it no favors.

San Francisco downtown condo sale in the “Mid-Market” area Purchased in 2018 for $1.256MM Just sold for $690k $566k loss

@ashleymayer I’m strongly considering creating a separate, obscurely named work email that’s meant for humans / colleagues only. I’m so tired of blocking cold inbound B2B spam, as well as sifting through all of the SaaS notifications. Need some AI filter to tell me which of those is important

Count me among those who believe email is fast becoming untenable thanks to AI-generated slop. Triaging is like fighting a hydra: block one spammer, two more appear. It's sad, because email has always been a great equalizer. A strong cold email can break through. What's next?

We need a fully electric Tesla RV with Starlink tightly integrated, wings to collect solar, Full Self Driving, a roof deck level for outdoor hangs, and Grok AI heavily involved for voice control / companion.

@amaldorai @rohindhar The place to be in the 2000’s was Google. I don’t think another co. has reached the peak that GOOG had in the 2000’s. Not just with market share dominance or financial success, but also the cultural zeitgeist of Don’t Be Evil, the clean white look, free food for employees etc

Someone told me recently they were at an event for people who had recently moved to San Francisco and worked in tech And mind you, the stat they said was so outrageous it strains credibility and I can’t really vouch for it 😅 But of the 40 people at the event 38 of them had moved from New York

@jreidgreer @daniel_w_owens I think @daniel_w_owens is not taking macro economic stuff into account here properly. We were doing great in 2016-2020. Dozens of laws passed. COVID / remote work / high interest rates have put a damper on construction for six years now. Good times are around the corner.

@daniel_w_owens I mean this genuinely — what's the alternative? Unfortunately reforms like this are incredibly slow. Tons of special interests fighting in the opposite direction. We've only made real progress in the last couple of years, and that will take time to bear fruit.

@daniel_w_owens I don’t know the math well, but I’m surprised that a calculation isn’t made that by removing all dev fees, thus incentivizing building, SF gets way more property tax revenue that’s recurring every year than from a one time fee. A million dollar condo pays $11K/year forever.

@sfstandard I feel like this is perfect for @rivatez aesthetic

Not sure what’s happening in SF, but the second-hand market for giant breakfast food decor is apparently booming 🥯🪽

@Lincoln_Osis @rohindhar You’re the exception. Sounds like more of a Florida or Arizona situation ;)

@anm @rohindhar Not really. That's condo buildings where you're forced to share expense. My hoa is an entire neighborhood. I pay my own garbage, pge and all the other stuff

One change in buyer behavior in the San Francisco real estate market over the last year $1000 a month HOA fee has gone from “get out of here what a rip off 😡” To “Hmmm pretty reasonable 🤔” I think the overall inflation in housing costs this year (for purchase or rentals) has just made all big numbers feel smaller

@Lincoln_Osis @rohindhar That’s the majority of HOAs in the city, since most of SF is small buildings like that.

@anm @rohindhar That's not really an hoa

@Lincoln_Osis @rohindhar The typical HOA budget of a mom and pop (2-4 unit) condo building in SF includes: - Common PG&E for things like garage lighting - Landscaping - Insurance for the exterior structure - Water - Trash collection

@anm @rohindhar Hoa doesn't do any of that here