Alex Posthuma

@mr_deepvalue No, because their working capital is highly volatile. Big swings in (f)cf because of it. Dont pin me on the exact numbers but I think the FCF for 2025 is 4.6m whereas OE are 2m. For 2024 its something like 1.6m FCF and 2m OE. EV/OE is imo cleanest

@aph_24 You don't agree with using the EV/FCF ratio?

This one is now up. Free to read... Link in bio.

Very nice write up, I agree with almost everything except, I think the multiple you use to get to the valuation is a bit aggressive. If we say normalized owner earnings are 2m-ish then it trades for 6.5x OE. With margins at 2.7% and such client concentration I'm doubtful we can justify much more than perhaps 8x OE. Add 4m-ish in cash you get to 20m valuation or 160-170p/share. This is watchlist material for me also: The liquidity, lack of growth, client concentration and razor thin margins require a higher margin of safety imo

He must almost certainly mean different maturities, but even then the comment doesnt make a lot of sense. If its true then Munger had a very poor understanding of options pricing, because it should be fairly obvious as to why a 60 call 10 years out would be higher premium then a 30 call 90 days out (in most cases)

@F_Compounders Did he actually say this? Something very unusual must be going on for that 60 call to be priced higher than 30 as it would violate BS' math. The difference can be arb'ed if true

“Black-Scholes is a know-nothing system. If you know nothing about value -only price -then Black-Scholes is a pretty good guess at what a 90-day option might be worth. But the minute you get into longer periods of time, it’s crazy to get into Black-Scholes. For example, at Costco we issued stock options with strike prices of $30 and $60, and Black-Scholes valued the $60 ones higher. This is insane” - Charlie Munger

@MichaelAArouet No, because they are paid protesters

We have reached the stage of Western feminism where white liberal women are seriously telling young Persian women to put their hijabs back on and get back in the kitchen where they belong. Don't Western left get headaches from their hypocrisy?

@jackunheard Paid protesters, its pretty clear

I actually can’t believe what I’m seeing right now… Liberal women are parading PHOTOS of terrorist Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in front of Trump Tower in NYC. These people have ZERO interest in America. Might as well deport them.

The Western liberal media is ignoring the Iranian uprising because explaining it would force an admission it is desperate to avoid: the Iranian people are rebelling against Islam itself, and that fact shatters the moral framework through which these institutions understand the world. Ideally, to cover an uprising is not just to show crowds and slogans. It requires answering a basic question: why are people risking death? In Iran, the answer is simple and unavoidable. The people are rising up because the Islamic Republic of Iran has spent decades suffocating every aspect of life—speech, work, family, art, women, and economic survival—under a clerical system that treats liberty as a crime. There is no way to tell that story without confronting the nature of the regime. Western media refuses to do so because it has fundamentally misunderstood Islam. Or worse, it has chosen not to understand it. Islam, in Western progressive discourse, has been racialized. It is treated not as a belief system or a political ideology, but as a stand-in for race or ethnicity. Criticizing Islam is framed as an attack on “brown people,” Arabs, or “the Middle East,” as if Islam were a skin color rather than a doctrine. This confusion is rooted in historical illiteracy. Western liberal media routinely collapses entire civilizations into a single stereotype: “all Middle Easterners are Arabs,” “all Arabs are Muslim,” and “all Muslims are a monolithic, oppressed identity group by white European colonizers.” Iranians disappear entirely in this framework. Their language, history, and culture—Persian, not Arab; ancient, not colonial; distinct, not interchangeable—are erased. By treating Islam as a racial identity rather than an ideology, Western media strips millions of people of their ability to reject it. Iranian protesters become unintelligible. Their rebellion cannot be processed without breaking the rule that Islam must not be criticized. So instead of listening to Iranians, the media speaks over them—or ignores them entirely. There is another reason the Iranian uprising is so threatening to Western media is economic issues. As you know, Iran is not only a religious dictatorship. It is a centrally controlled, state-dominated economy where markets are strangled, private enterprise is criminalized or co-opted, and economic survival depends on proximity to political power. Decades of price controls, subsidies, nationalization, and bureaucratic micromanagement have obliterated the middle class and entrenched corruption as the only functional system. The result is not equality or justice. It is poverty, stagnation, and dependence on government’s dark void of empty promises. Covering Iran honestly would require acknowledging that these policies are harmful. They have been tried. They have failed. Catastrophically. This is deeply inconvenient for Western media institutions that routinely promote expansive state control, centralized economic planning, and technocratic governance as morally enlightened alternatives to liberal capitalism. Iran demonstrates where such systems lead when insulated from accountability and enforced by ideology. It shows that when the state controls livelihoods, non-conformity becomes existentially dangerous. That lesson cannot be acknowledged without undermining the moral authority of those who advocate similar ideas in softer language. Western liberal media prefers not to hear this. Acknowledging it would require abandoning the lazy moral categories that dominate modern discourse: oppressor and oppressed, colonizer and colonized, white and non-white. Iranian protesters do not fit. They show that authoritarianism is not a Western invention imposed from outside, but something many societies are actively trying to escape. That is what terrifies Western liberal media. And that is why the Iranian people are being ignored. So the silence continues.

@kreuger_kevin Goed om te zien dat ons belastinggeld nuttig wordt besteed: Eindeloos ouwehoeren over iets waar ze 0,0 invloed op hebben.

De Amsterdamse Gemeenteraad waarschuwt Trump nog één keer.

@nickshirleyy Tim Waltz ended himself mate.

I ENDED TIM WALZ

@elonmusk He is such a spineless weasel

Walz actively scamming elections

@elonmusk "Why does the world look like its 2015?" May have been the best question anyone's ever asked

It’s coming

De VVD wil het begrotingstekort niet op laten lopen en box 3 was onderdeel van belastingverhoging voor VVD. Dit hadden ze wel degelijk gecommuniceerd. Buiten dat is het zo dat de meeste beleggers met realized gains nog "duurder" uit waren geweest de afgelopen jaren. Daarmee praat ik het niet goed, maar die 1,2% die het ooit was, is natuurlijk niet houdbaar of realistisch

@RBwoningmarkt VVD dieptepunt. Binnenkort komen ze met cursusje: 12 manieren om kiezersvertrouwen te reduceren!

@KoertsNiels @Pieter_Grinwis Niels kun je nog eens kort samenvatten wat dit betekent cq wat de box 3 heffing nu gaat zijn in 2026 en verder

Echt heel goed nieuws voor beleggers. Felicitaties aan @Pieter_Grinwis! Alleen is het natuurlijk bizar dat we door de GL-PvdA en Denk gered moeten worden🤭

@BillAckman A good investor like you should know not to double down on a mistake Bill :)

I failed to mention that this works much more effectively when you are moving. So on subways, elevators, escalators, airplanes, buses, and even walking down the street, it is most effective.

@elonmusk The fact that this probably took 3 commissions and one 200-page report is pretty sad, or is it funny, I'm not sure

Mind-blowing discovery 🤯

@gerrieickhof Wat lul jij nou uit je nek. Je kan net zo goed hetzelfde over D66 zeggen. Feit is dat NL overwegend RECHTS heeft gestemd. Een centrumrechtse coalitie ligt dus veel meer voor de hand dan een coalitie met GL er in

Yesigöz gijzelt het land op een immorele en onverantwoorde wijze. Pijnlijk en schadelijk dat ze na al dat liegen en verliezen niet uit goedbegrepen algemeen belang ophoepelt. #formatie

@DenizTheTrader Tbh the returns dont say much if we dont know the capital they used. CAGR of 120% for 19 years is highly unlikely, if not impossible, unless one works with tiny sums of capital

The best traders of all time by average annual returns If someone in X claims better return Just block them...

@Flick1_ Als je de moeite had genomen om ook maar 5 minuten politiek te volgen, dan had je dit van een kilometer af aan kunnen zien aankomen...

Als Rob Jetten van te voren overal had geroepen: 1: Ik wil met GL/PVDA gaan regeren 2: De tien steden is een metaforische uitspraak 3: Mijn rechtse beeldvorming was een grapje (Vuistje omhoog, Nederlandse vlaggetjes, Trumpiaanse kreet "het kan wél") Dan had hij nooit 26 zetels behaald! Maar dat er 1.820.000 mensen zijn die in zijn leugens zijn getrapt is misschien nog wel het allerergste!

@HenriBontenbal Net zoals de verkiezingscampagne: Veel woorden gebruiken, maar eigenlijk niets zeggen.

Vanmiddag heb ik een gesprek gehad met de verkenner, waarbij ik de onderstaande brief heb meegenomen en toegelicht.