Armin I

Attacks similar to those in the 12 days of war With about 50 tankers in the region, in key bases like Al Udeid (Qatar), where at least 16–20 have been confirmed there via satellite imagery and flight tracking, I believe the Americans will operate in a manner similar to what Israel did during the 12 days, using refueling and extra tanks for the initial waves of attacks, which must come from much more distant bases. This safer measure will also reduce the fleet in a few days due to maintenance needs, and that's probably when they plan to bring in naval aviation. The attack from the outset should involve the launch of Tomahawks in large numbers, perhaps hundreds. The objective will certainly be to neutralize Iran's retaliatory capacity within a few days. As I've said here before, it will be a major challenge because this was attempted without success against Iraq and Yemen. The force in Iraq consisted of 6 aircraft carriers, and in Yemen it was a task force with about 20 ships, and even with air support against a much smaller territory, it was not able to prevent the Houthis from launching their missiles and drones. Iranian radars will likely be massively targeted by missiles and also by coordinated internal actions right at the beginning of the conflict. Iran's surveillance capabilities should be limited to Chinese systems and their drones, of which we're talking about hundreds just for ISR purposes. I foresee significant damage to facilities in Iran concurrent with the attacks through sabotage. Recently, it was reported that the Chinese would be assisting Iran in counterintelligence, but this is long-term work with few immediate effects. It's not a conflict of days. It's a long war whose real objective I still haven't understood, since both the fall of the government and the destruction of nuclear facilities would require a ground invasion, which is highly unlikely. The Americans are talking about preparations for a war lasting weeks, but with massive retaliations from Iran and greater attrition, this could extend for months, even with air superiority achieved in a few weeks, along with costs rising to billions per day. I would like to see the estimate of costs that the Department of Defense makes for this conflict. The US-Israel are putting all its chips on a quick action and will have the advantage of striking first, but this won't prevent Iran from putting its asymmetric naval warfare into practice, for which its navy was designed and built to fight. All this while the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 1/4 of gas transport and 1/3 of oil passes, would be mined and closed. This war will disrupt the global economy in a way not seen for a long time. (Animation usnewsa1)