Arjun Jain

Going to use this account to share how I think about Indian capital markets — equities, fixed income, and the macro that connects them. A thread on what to expect.

@yatinmota Pretty strong guidance in my opinion

M&M Guidance

Mahindra & Mahindra Q4 FY26 - strong set of numbers across the board. Consolidated PAT: ₹4,668 cr - +42% YoY Revenue: ₹54,982 cr - +29% YoY PAT margin improved to 8.5% from 7.7% What's driving it: Auto volumes: 307,000 units - +21% YoY. SUV demand remains strong and high margin. Tractor volumes: 120,000 units - +36% YoY. Rural economy holding up well. Services segment PAT: +64% YoY - the fastest growing piece. The one watch item - standalone EBITDA margin at 14.1% vs 14.9% last year. Revenue growing faster than profitability at the operating level. Worth monitoring. ₹33/share final dividend recommended. Overall though - this is a company firing on multiple cylinders. Auto, farm and services all delivering together is not something you see every quarter. DYOR.

@CNBCTV18Live @sudarshankr splendid results, M&M continues to keep delivering 🙏

#4QWithCNBCTV18 | M&M reports its Q4 earnings (Cons): ▶️Net Profit Up 42% At ₹4,667.6 Cr Vs ₹3,295 Cr (YoY) ▶️Revenue Up 29.1% At ₹54,982 Cr Vs ₹42,599 Cr (YoY) ▶️EBITDA Up 27.5% At ₹10,127.3 Cr Vs ₹7,941.5 Cr (YoY) ▶️Margin At 18.4% Vs 18.6% (YoY) ▶️Board recommends final dividend of ₹33/sh

@BaluGorade Yeah but surprisingly you see a lot….

@arjunjain_96 these are stupid distributors

Sharing this again: Mutual funds were created because stock picking is tough. But now with: - 45 AMCs - 5 broad categories - 36 sub-categories - 2500+ schemes Even picking a mutual fund isn't easy anymore 😅

Only a small percentage of PMS funds consistently beat Nifty 50 TRI after fees over 5 years - and you’re paying close to 2%+ fixed for the privilege The fee drag alone is brutal. ₹1Cr at 2% = ₹2L/year out the door before a single alpha rupee is generated. High fixed fees + profit-sharing with no downside = heads-I-win, tails-you-lose for the manager. Not a good deal

Guys, don't be stupid. PMS are one of the best products to destroy your wealth. Saurabh Mukherjea has been a poster child for this. Google him. I am an HNI. And, I can tell you with experience that the best way to make solid money is to learn how to manage your own money. Yes, you will make mistakes along the way. But, you will learn and improve. Every investment you make, compounds your investment knowledge. If you simply outsource wealth management, you become a brain dead, rich people. Such people are dream clients for PMS guys. Don't fall in that trap. Every rich person who stays rich, knows how to manage his/her money.

Gift Nifty 24,080 signals a muted start to the Indian markets📉 it was reading in the negative earlier and has recovered this morning. Crude jumps to $104 (+2.35%) - as there was fresh aggression by Iran in UAE - withe their few attacks being intercepted. 🛢️ US 10Y yield spikes to 4.45%, rupee slides to 95.07 War News might drive the market today.

@REDBOXINDIA Here we go again

BRENT OIL RISES OVER $114 AFTER UAE REPORTS IRAN'S ATTACKS IN FUJAIRAH.

If you want foreign exposure in your portfolio, you’ll probably have to build it yourself. Mutual fund overseas limits are restricted and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. Gift City PMS/AIF options for HNIs, or platforms like Vested and INDmoney for direct US stock investing within the LRS limit will gain more traction.

Axis to stop flows in its global funds from 6th May!

@REDBOXINDIA Strong results continue from the cable & wire companies

KEI INDUSTRIES: Q4 SL NET PROFIT 2.84B RUPEES VS 2.3B (YOY) || Q4 REVENUE 34.76B RUPEES VS 29.14B (YOY) KEI INDUSTRIES: Q4 EBITDA 3.8B RUPEES VS 3B (YOY) || Q4 EBITDA MARGIN 10.98% VS 10.34% (YOY)

@REDBOXINDIA Strong numbers and a strong guidance. Hopefully the improvement on collections continues

GODREJ PROP GUIDANCE

Exceptional booking numbers over the past few years and collections are now turning around too - good to see both moving in the right direction. Strong forecast despite general concerns of a realty sector slowdown. Will be interesting to hear what management has to say on the medium term outlook and how they see the sector playing out from here.

Godrej Properties - Surpassed FY26 guidance FY26 Booking Value 🔼16% - 34,171 Cr Collections 🔼17% - 19,965 Cr Operating Cash Flow 🔼5% - 7,830 Cr Booking value has grown at 41% CAGR in last 3 years Collections have grown at 30% CAGR in last 3 years India’s largest residential developer by booking value for the 3rd consecutive year FY26 Booking value achieved 105% of guidance Collections achieved 95% of guidance Deliveries achieved 121% of guidance FY27 guidance Launch value - 48,000 Cr Booking value - 39,000 Cr Collections - 24,000 Cr Godrej Properties delivered a record FY26 with highest ever bookings, collections & OCF Targeting to reach 20% ROE by FY28

The honest take ABCL isn't the most exciting story in financial services - but it's a solid, quietly compounding one. Lending scaling with discipline, insurance gaining share, AMC generating stable cash. Three businesses doing their job. Management commentary will be key - if they can sustain 15-20% earnings growth and keep improving return ratios, this story has a lot more room to run. One to keep tabs on. DYOR.

Insurance optionality Life Insurance VNB margin at 20.6% - respectable. Health Insurance premium growth at 39% with market share gains. Neither is fully mature yet. But both are moving in the right direction. Will be interesting to see how they develop in the time to come

Aditya Birla Capital FY26 - steady, consistent, broad-based. Revenue: ₹53,871 cr - +14% YoY PAT: ₹3,797 cr - +21% YoY Lending book: ₹2.07 lakh cr - +32% YoY Total AUM: ₹5.9 lakh cr - +16% YoY Not a blowout. But the kind of numbers that compound quietly. 🧵

@Invest_AndGrow very surprising, would have expected some reaction even if short lived, especially given the victory margin

Nifty is not reacting much to BJP winning in west bengal 🤷😯 What else Nifty want. How to please nifty ? Any one knows ?

@yatinmota @soumeet_sarkar Very insightful analysis, good to know the details and not get swayed by the headline numbers

*ONE OFF GAIN IN BHEL ?* BHEL - Big bottomline beat driven by reversal of provisions in other expenses. Other expenses were lower YoY despite 30%+ topline growth (which was known at the time of provisional results reported earlier). *Gross margin in Q4 was ~30 bps below our est. at 34.8% (but +100bps YoY, which is reason to cheer). Overall GM in FY26 is down 150bps to 33.5%.* *Order inflows in FY26 are down 19% (known at the time of provisional results).* Stock is up 10% on the big PAT beat - at Rs12bn in Q4 vs. our est. of Rs8bn. Today BHEL was up pre-result too given the tailwind from potentially bigger role in HVDC with domestic content requirements diluted. Retain SELL . Brokerage note. Need more clarity on provision and one off items (esp other expenses / prov) in results if any.