Arvind Bohra Jain

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#TheNumbersGame with @rahulkanwal | SIR Effect: Why Bengal Could See Record Voter Turnout On panel: Jai Mrug, @KanchanGupta, @PradeepGuptaAMI, @YRDeshmukh

Some broad-stroke takeaways from the ground at the end of my travels in West Bengal: 1. ‘Poribortan’ (change) is the big buzzword this election across the state. There is significant anti-incumbency against the Mamata Banerjee regime, which is not unexpected after 15 years of being in power. Some of it is spurred by anger, some by disappointment, and some by sheer voter fatigue and boredom. 2. BJP, being the main opposition, is the obvious beneficiary of this anti-incumbency sentiment. The lack of an overt CM face doesn’t seem to matter much on the ground & most voters assume it is Suvendu Adhikari. Modi, meanwhile, remains the main face & the name synonymous with the party. 3. Voter anger against the TMC stems from many factors, a key one being the lack of development - “unnayan darakar” (development is needed) - is an oft-heard phrase, as voters compare West Bengal to neighbouring Odisha to point towards the difference. 4. Lack of industry and, consequently, rampant unemployment is a major pain point. Several voters say they feel education is being wasted with no jobs available in the state. 5. Voters are also upset with poor medical and health facilities, with many pointing towards the need to travel to other states for treatment. 6. Crumbling law & order situation and lack of safety for women have emerged as big conversation points, especially fuelled by the RG Kar violent crime. This has somewhat dented Mamata Banerjee’s image of being a pro-woman leader. 7. ‘Cut money’, essentially denoting corruption at the grassroots, is perhaps the most talked about negative of this govt, with voters alleging even the poor are not spared by local leaders and lower tiers of the administration. 8. An interesting complaint is how Mamata Banerjee seems to have simply perpetuated the Left model, which the voters voted out in 2011, instead of bringing in her own vision. “Wahan ka log sab yahan aa gaya (their cadre have shifted here)” is a common refrain. 9. There is a section of voters that isn’t really angry or upset but is just bored. “It’s been 15 years now. Why not give someone else a chance,” they say. It is this section that Banerjee perhaps has some chance of converting even now. 10. Bengal’s beloved ‘didi’ herself really isn’t unpopular even today. The disenchantment is largely with the rank and file of Trinamool Congress. Many voters say it isn’t Mamata, but the lower rung leaders that they have a problem with. 11. The demographics are a big advantage for Mamata Banerjee. Thanks to the BJP’s polarising & majoritarian brand of politics, the minority community in recent times has voted en masse for the party best placed to defeat it. In West Bengal, Muslims form 27-30 per cent of the electorate and seem to be rallying steadfastly behind Banerjee. In that sense, TMC starts with a nearly 30 per cent lead. 12. West Bengal elections have always been complex & layered due to an entrenched cadre culture & history of political violence. TMC cadre remains tentacled & powerful & that is a key point voters raise — the possibility of intimidation. Voters claim that if that happens, the outcome may be vastly different. 13. SIR deletions have caused some confusion on the ground & the ECI ought to have timed it better. Those struck off the rolls blame the BJP & EC of being in cahoots. 14. BJP’s brazenly communally charged ‘infiltrator’ rhetoric seems to have found some traction in West Bengal, more than in Assam, where the issue is of ethnicity. 15. Women voters — Mamata Banerjee’s backbone — prove one point - this is now a fast-evolving electorate & will soon ask the question of ‘what next’. Her flagship & once hugely popular Lakshmir Bhandar seems to have run its course with many now talking about more sustainable forms of livelihood as well as better infrastructure. 16. There is little left of the Left & it is hard to say what the Congress is up to in the state. #WestBengalElections #BengalPolitics #WomenVoters #GroundReport #IndianPolitics #Election2026 #VoterVoices

@surajitdasgupta @grok translate in English for video

ভাইপো অভিষেকের কথা অগ্রাহ্য করে মমতা বন্দ্যোপাধ্যায়ও স্বীকার করছেন ওঁর বিপদ ঘনিয়ে আসছে। যদি তৃণমূল কংগ্রেস 150টি আসন পায় আর ভারতীয় জনতা পার্টি পায় 135টি, সেক্ষেত্রেও তৃণমূল সরকার ধরে রাখতে পারবেনা। তবে মনে হয়না পশ্চিমবঙ্গের মানুষ এরকম ঝুলন্ত অবস্থায় রাজ্যকে রাখবেন। ফলাফল হবে এস পার কি ওস পার। — সাংবাদিক অর্কপ্রভ সরকারের মত

May be modi wanted this bill to fall.

@dcd1996 @ViratHindu24 @narendramodi No seriously.

@arvind_barmer @ViratHindu24 @narendramodi Sach mein hai? Or only mahaul making like pre RJ 2018, when suddenly just before polls to keep morale up there was a 180 turn?

@narendramodi one suggestion in communication. Many voters are still not convinced that BJP can win west Bengal. You have to communicate, you change your vote, rest everything will be taken care. I see BJP is very close to win in Bengal.

Key Challenges: 1. Cadre attrition in South Bengal. Not enough groundwork in last 5 years in Rural South Bengal areas. 2. Perception of still TMC winning election may fear people in South Bengal. 3. Freebies of Mamta is still having impact for Poor Sections. Silent Voter?

Key Strong Points for BJP: 1. Mamta' Statement: Girls should not come out after 8PM. Big Impact on the ground of this statement. Mahila Voters. 2. 7th Pay Commission Promise by BJP. 3. Huge Urban movement in favour of BJP. 4. BJP gaining all lost ground of North Bengal.

Urban Bengal looks different this time. Huge anti incumbency in Kolkata, Hawra. Urban seats will flip. @anuraagmuskaan videos i have been watching, never seen people speaking so clearly in Bengal. Wind of change. Arithmetic may fail. So I stand corrected.

It is simple that in WB, without a strong third player taking away some votes from TMC, BJP cant win WB. BJP vote share is stuck at 40% with no indication of its going up. A third player is needed to break this puzzle.

Javed Akhtar, who has been in Bollywood for six decades and is a vocal critic of BJP and baap figure of leftists, praising Dhurandhar and clearly loving it. Meanwhile we have Pathan loving cinephile chvtiyas claiming Dhurandhar is poorly made propaganda film. 😭

Instead of watching a 2-hour movie, watch this Claude FULL COURSE (Build & Automate Anything):

Every ICC tournament they sell "चूरन" only🤣🤣 In Pakistan, the TV analysts get a 4-week contract, while the team only packs for 4 days. 📺✈️ Cricket shows: 24/7. Tournament run: 404 Not Found. 🚫📺

Sanju and @DineshKarthik on the ICC official page, just enjoying the moment and having fun together 😄 Great players. Great friends. Great vibes. Love to see this bond 💙🇮🇳 best of luck sanju for match .

This is the full video of public giving proper thrashing to Congressis. Blue shirt kick wala guy should be recruited immediately in our football team 🤣 Public ne Acha dhoya inn sab congressi losers ko 👏🏼

ये मार..मार के मोर बना दिया... हरियाणवी कमेंट्री 😍 #INDvsPAK

Match Pakistan haara Pagal Ravish ho gaya 😂😂

Sadma gehra hai 😭😭😂😂