Asha

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Asha

@ashanmaa

Economics | Capital Market | AI

Katılım Temmuz 2025
136 Takip Edilen45 Takipçiler
Asha
Asha@ashanmaa·
@daniel_smjtk90 Oh shit, no index downgrade, but STILL A REALLY MASSIVE FOREIGN OUTFLOW
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Asha@ashanmaa·
MSCI announcement, There is no mention of Indonesia at all, so it is safe to say that Indonesia stays in the Emerging Market. Will this news help IHSG to rebound? because the risk of MSCI is supposedly gone. Let's see.
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txtdaritaxpayer
txtdaritaxpayer@txtdaritaxpayer·
📰 Kementerian ESDM Berencana Naikkan Royalti untuk Sejumlah Komoditas Minerba • Kementerian ESDM pada Jumat (8/5) menggelar public hearing terkait perubahan tarif royalti untuk komoditas tembaga, timah, nikel, emas, hingga perak. • Perubahan tarif royalti tersebut umumnya terkait perubahan interval harga mineral acuan dan kenaikan tarif. • Kementerian ESDM berencana untuk segera mengajukan rencana kenaikan tarif royalti ini kepada Presiden Prabowo Subianto, dengan target mulai berlaku per Juni 2026 (tidak berlaku surut). • Rentang tarif royalti dengan perubahan terbesar adalah timah, dari berkisar 3–10% menjadi 5–20%. Sementara itu, konsentrat tembaga naik dari 7–10% menjadi 9–13%, katoda tembaga dari 4–7% menjadi 7–10%, emas dari 7–16% menjadi 14–20%, perak dari flat 5% menjadi berkisar 5–8%. • Tarif royalti untuk nikel tidak berubah di kisaran 14–19%, tetapi interval harga mineral acuannya berubah. • Kementerian ESDM juga akan menyesuaikan klaster komoditas kobalt sebagai produk ikutan dalam nickel matte, yang nantinya akan dikenakan tarif royalti terhadap kandungan logam nikel dan logam kobalt. [Sumber: YouTube Ditjen Minerba TV] _____ Copas dari Stockbit Sekuritas @Stockbit
Sahamfess 📈@Saham_fess

Ya Allah, ada dosa apa sih 😭🤲🏼 shm!

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Asha@ashanmaa·
3. Fiscal Deficits due to MBG And the government is planning to fill the gap by increasing the commodities tariff; furthermore, showing the World that Indonesia is a country with high uncertainty, the property rights here aren't consistent and can change at anytime. $JCI -2.86%
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Asha@ashanmaa

IDR will continue to weaken further due to the condition: 1. Oil Prices ATH 2. Frontier downgrade risk (MSCI); Reflected with the massive outflow of foreign in $BBCA; Might continue to be a domino effect on the bond market 3. Fiscal Deficits due to MBG Conclusion: Hold non-IDR

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Asha
Asha@ashanmaa·
$WBSA XC = XOBAT CUAN, bcs of Hengky Adinata. It's still not over yet; the total volume's only 1.5M lot, still only ~50% of my exit plan threshold. I'm not confident that it will be ARA tomorrow. But it's not over yet; now is the time to purge only. MM will send it lower 1st.
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Asha@ashanmaa

$WBSA WHOOPSSS here comes the SHAKEOUT. MG sells 178k lot and is absorbed by XL. For me, it's only a shakeout to make retail sell their bags tomorrow. It doesn't make sense for the MM to do REAL DISTRIBUTION on FCA; there will be no liquidity. HOLD till t.vol. exceed 2.8M lot

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Asha@ashanmaa·
$WBSA WHOOPSSS here comes the SHAKEOUT. MG sells 178k lot and is absorbed by XL. For me, it's only a shakeout to make retail sell their bags tomorrow. It doesn't make sense for the MM to do REAL DISTRIBUTION on FCA; there will be no liquidity. HOLD till t.vol. exceed 2.8M lot
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Asha@ashanmaa

$WBSA 5 days to go for guaranteed ARA.

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Asha@ashanmaa·
IDR 17.428/$ CRAZZZYYYYYY, HOLD YOUR FOREIGN CURRENCY! It can be USD, CHF, SGD, or EUR Don't convert it to rupiah just yet, just hold it indefinitely. Only convert if it's really necessary, because it's only going up, as long as those 3 risks on the original post remain.
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Asha@ashanmaa

IDR will continue to weaken further due to the condition: 1. Oil Prices ATH 2. Frontier downgrade risk (MSCI); Reflected with the massive outflow of foreign in $BBCA; Might continue to be a domino effect on the bond market 3. Fiscal Deficits due to MBG Conclusion: Hold non-IDR

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Asha
Asha@ashanmaa·
$WBSA WOW, surprisingly, tomorrow it's already unsuspended Turns out, it's only 6 days of suspension, kinda unconventional, but I take it. WBSA will take us to Valhalla; supply in FCA is super thin, so it'll really be cheap to make it ARA. EXIT ONLY IF THE T.VOL. EXCEED 2.8M.
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Asha@ashanmaa

$WBSA will start its FCA on Wednesday, 6 May 2026 And will continue the ARA streak until the end of it I'm highly confident that the current suspension will only be 7 days of market days, even though it's not disclosed

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Asha@ashanmaa·
The massive outflow of foreign that I talk about IMAGINE, NET FOREIGN SELL 11T IN JUST 8 DAYS, while all other indices are just fine I bet they know something that we aren't. I don't know what it is, because the probability of Indonesia becoming a Frontier Market is really low
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Asha@ashanmaa

IDR will continue to weaken further due to the condition: 1. Oil Prices ATH 2. Frontier downgrade risk (MSCI); Reflected with the massive outflow of foreign in $BBCA; Might continue to be a domino effect on the bond market 3. Fiscal Deficits due to MBG Conclusion: Hold non-IDR

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Asha@ashanmaa·
IMHO, this "MSCI crash" is somewhat predictable. both at the time, and in retrospect Just keep this principle in mind: PRICE ACTION DISCOUNT EVERYTHING and my favorite (additional) principle: Barang bagus gak bakal dibagi-bagi, barang jelek pasti dibagi-bagi End of Thread~
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Asha@ashanmaa·
This is really concerning because IHSG is on its ATH (9k+), and there's lots of FOMO in the market, reflected by many newcomers. And the market is starting to get out of breath. Market TOP + MSCI concern ~30 Jan + Price Action that really validated the concern of market crash
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Asha@ashanmaa·
Before I write here on Twitter, I usually share insights on the group chat/personal chats, 22 - 25 January 2026, I predicted the "MSCI Crash" that happened on 28 January 2026 I told everyone to start closing positions, because the sign is really obvious... A brief thread~
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