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The fact that alts are holding well while
Bitcoin dumped from $106k to $98k
Stocks dropped 4%-5%
This shows if BTC bounces from here, Alts will pump back faster with it.
we need BTC Weekly close above $103k for bullish sentiment to return else we are kinda fcked.
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I still think Bitcoin top isn't in.
Here’s why:
No euphoria➨ People keep saying that we are in a 4-year cycle, but there was no euphoria at the top. People were 100x more euphoric in December 2024 than now.
Gold-BTC correlation➨ Gold has cooled off after a rally. BTC has usually followed gold with a 3-month lag, which indicates a rally this month.
No AltSeason➨ A few coins even pump in a bear market. Just because a handful of alts are pumping, it doesn't mean AltSeason is happening. And there has been no blow-off top without an AltSeason.
Liquidity➨ To be honest, Bitcoin current setup is more comparable to 2019 than 2021. Rate cuts, end of QT etc. were happening in 2019 not 2021. One thing most people misunderstood is that there's a 4-year cycle. There's a business cycle and nothing else.
I could still be wrong, but my thesis is based on facts and data. Also, I'm looking closely at the weekly EMA-50 level now at $103k, which has been a bull/bear line since Q1 2023.
Imagine this scenario:
➺ $BTC drops towards $83K-$86K as OGs are offloading.
➺ 99.9% of bulls will think it's over.
➺ Bitcoin will slowly start to move up.
➺ Max shorting as people will think it's a dead-cat bounce.
➺ Price continues to go up as ETF inflows will increase.
➺ Bitcoin above $100,000 and 4-year cycle believers in shambles.
➺ BTC drops below $100K again, and bears screaming, "We were right".
➺ BTC consolidates and pumps to a new ATH.
➺ OGs who sold believing in the 4-year cycle are now in FOMO.
➺ Insane spot bidding and BTC explodes above $150,000.
➺ Alts running and all bottom sellers are buying high.
➺ BTC above $180K, ETH above $8K and alts going parabolic.
➺ Delusional bulls are rich again.