Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI)

The long-awaited Trump-Xi Summit is rapidly approaching—and with it, growing anticipation about what’s next for Taiwan. Join us on May 19 for a discussion on the future of cross-Strait relations, featuring top voices from Washington, Taipei, and Beijing. 🔗Register today: asiasociety.org/policy-institu…

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@shayhouston and Robert Snedden, Senior Program Officer at ASPI, unpack how Asian allies are reacting to Trump's China trip 🌏

Presidents Trump and Xi have concluded their high-stakes summit in #Beijing. On the agenda were trade, Taiwan, the Iran War, and AI — but what did the two leaders agree on?  ASPI experts unpack outcomes in our latest edition of Asia ASAP 🌏🚀⬇️ asiapolicy.asiasociety.org/p/asia-asap-tr…

A major India-UAE engagement amid the shifting regional dynamics and energy supply disruptions. During PM Modi's recent visit, the two sides "agreed to the framework for ‌a strategic defence partnership...as they seek to deepen ties amid the Iran war." reuters.com/world/india/in…

"New Delhi released a chair’s statement instead of a joint communique, citing differences among members over the situation in the Middle East."

Good to see @SCMPNews calling out #Anthropic on their fear mongering in the new “2028: Two Scenarios” paper. 🚨 It’s a dangerous and irresponsible game to play gambling with global stability and #AI safety for their own gain. Nice to see both my friend @kyleichan and I were quoted.💡 Nice piece @vince_chow1 . @AsiaPolicy @StanfordHAI @VRWorldSociety @BrookingsInst

🇨🇳/🇺🇸 "L'entrée discrète de la Chine dans le jeu prouve que nous sommes dans une redistribution des cartes au niveau mondial." ▶️Philippe Le Corre, professeur de géopolitique à l'ESSEC, chercheur au Asia Society Policy Institute, était invité sur #ledebatf24.

We didn't get many specifics about what Trump and Xi discussed regarding Taiwan, Iran, and nuclear issues. We got a lot more when President Trump met with reporters on board Air Force One. A long 🧵 on what Trump said and why I was both relieved and confused with some of his remarks. First, below is my transcript of the conversation, and then with my initial thoughts. Broader Taiwan 2:11-3:03 Q: Can I ask you about Taiwan? What did President Xi say to you about Taiwan? And are you still going to approve the arms sale? Trump: President Xi and I talked a lot about Taiwan. He thinks they cannot have anything to do with what they are doing. He’s very much against what they are doing. We talked about Taiwan, we talked about Iran a lot. I think we have a very good understanding on both. On Taiwan, he does not want to see a fight for independence because that would be a very strong confrontation. And I heard him out. I didn’t make a comment on it. I heard him out. I have a lot of respect for him. Iran 3:03-3:34: Trump: On Iran, he (Xi) feels very strongly that they can’t have a nuclear weapon. He said that very strongly. They cannot have a nuclear weapon, and he wants them to open up the Strait. But as he said, they closed it and then you closed them (with a smile). That’s true, we control the Strait. And they’ve (China) done no business in the last two and half weeks, which is approximately 500 million dollars a day. So I think we are doing well on all fronts. Risk of Conflict over Taiwan 3:39-4:36 Q: President Xi said that there was a risk of conflict with the U.S. over Taiwan. What is your response to that? Trump: I don’t think there’s a conflict, I think we’ll be fine. He doesn’t want to see a war. And you have two things. You have the Iranian situation. On that I think we agree almost entirely, other than he’s a buyer and we’re not. We don’t need it. And on Taiwan, he doesn’t want to see a movement towards independence. He says look, we’ve had it for thousands of years, and then at a certain period of time it left, and then we get it back, and then the Korean War, a lot of things happened. But, no, on Taiwan, he feels very strongly. I made no commitment either way. Taiwan Arms Sales 4:36-4:59 Q: What about the arms sales to Taiwan Trump: I’ll make a determination over the next fairly short period of time. I have to speak with the person who is right now, you know who he is, that’s running Taiwan. Chinese Pressure on Strait of Hormuz 5:00-6:10 Q: Did President Xi make any firm commitment to put pressure on the Iranians to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? Trump: I’m not asking for any favors. Because when you ask for favors, you have to do favors in return. We don’t need favors. We’ve wiped out their armed forces, essentially. We have a blockade that’s so effective that’s why we did the ceasefire. We really did the ceasefire at the request of other nations. I wouldn’t have really been in favor of it, but we did it as a favor to Pakistan who are terrific people. Q: Is it your instinct that Xi will put pressure (on Iran)? Trump: I didn’t ask him to put pressure because I don’t need favors. I think he will. I think automatically he would like to see if opened up. He gets about 40% of his oil through the Strait. We get none. U.S. in Decline/Thucydides Trap 6:12-7:20 Q: You said on Truth Social that president Xi had made a reference to the decline of the U.S. We didn’t hear him say that. Maybe it was something he said to you in private. What was it first of all that he said that prompted you to tweet that? Trump: He made a statement. It might not have been from him. But from somebody. But he talked about the decline. But he said very publicly that the U.S. was declining, for the last four years, and he said what President Trump has done in the last 15-16 months has been virtually a miracle. He said, we have the hottest country anywhere in the world right now. But he said it was a declining country under Joe Biden. He said we had a seriously declining country. Which we did, with people pouring in from all over the world from prisons and everything else. He said what president Trump has done has been a virtual miracle. China Nuclear Weapons/Arms Control 8:06-9:33 Q: You said in January that you were going to bring up the expansion of their nuclear program. They’ve got 600 weapons now but the Pentagon’s estimate may be going to 1500. Did that come up? Did you succeed in getting them into any form of arms control? Trump: We brought it up. De-nuclearization. We talk about it all the time. With Russia, and with China. It did come up. We did discuss it. Q: What did you conclude? Trump: I got a very positive response. We are going to be together four times. Q: I’m trying to understand what he committed to, if anything. Trump: I don’t want to say anything that he committed to. But we have a very good understanding. You know the concept of de-nuclearization… Q: De-nuclearization or just an extension of START? Trump: No, de-nuclearization. Q: In other words, building down? Trump: And you bring Russia into it also. But the concept of that is something that would be very good. Six Assurances and U.S. Consulting with China over Taiwan Arms Sales 18:54-20:20 Q: On Taiwan, you said you were going to check with the President of Taiwan. But the 1982 assurances that President Reagan gave said the United States would not consult with China on arms sales to Taiwan. It sounds to me like you have consulted with China. Trump: Well, 1982 is a long way away. That’s a big far distance away. Q: So you dispensed with (that agreement)? , Trump: No I didn’t say anything about it. Certainly he brought that up. He talked about, obviously. So what am I going to do, say I don’t want to talk to you about it because I have an agreement that was signed in 1982? No, we discussed arms sales to Taiwan. We discussed the whole thing with arms sales in great detail actually. And I’ll be making decisions. But you know I think the last thing we need right now is a war. That’s 9,500 miles away. That’s the last thing we need. We’re doing very well. Q: Would the U.S. defend Taiwan if it came to it? Trump: I don’t want to say. I’m not going to say that. There’s only one person who knows that. You know it is? Me. I’m the only person. That question was asked today by President Xi. I said, I don’t talk about those things. He asked me if I would defend them (Taiwan), and I said I don’t talk about that. youtube.com/watch?v=XVfi6_…

China's property slump is in its 5th year—and Beijing is caught between short-term stabilization and long-term structural reform. CCA's new analysis examines the road ahead. 🔗 asiasociety.org/policy-institu…

What can we learn through handshakes? Quite a lot, actually. I told the @nytimes: “It was noteworthy that Xi appeared not to let Trump do the ‘power pull’ move, whereby Trump pulls the foreign leader’s hand closer to Trump,” said Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. He added that “Trump gave Xi a few warm ‘taps’ of Xi’s hand with his left hand, a signal that Trump showed extra friendliness.” “Trump’s more casual, showmanship style was on full display, whereas Xi’s body language and remarks were a bit more scripted and reserved, which is Xi’s style,” Mr. Morris said. nytimes.com/2026/05/14/wor…

What is the future of Canadian #trade and investment with the #IndoPacific? The video recording from our recent symposium with our John H. McArthur Research Fellows and @AsiaPolicy's Lizzi C. Lee is now live on our #YouTube page. Watch it now 👇 youtube.com/watch?v=7vlp9c…

.@wendyscutler joined @cnni to unpack developments from the first day of the Trump-Xi summit in #Beijing 🇨🇳 🤝🇺🇸 She weighs in on how the Iran conflict is reshaping U.S.-China talks, Xi's hardline stance on Taiwan, and what trade wins might actually materialize.

What comes next after the Trump-Xi Summit? Join us on Thursday, May 21, for a timely public webinar unpacking the summit's outcomes, signals, strategic implications, and next steps. Featuring the Hon. Dr. Kevin Rudd AC (@MrKRudd), Wendy Cutler (@wendyscutler, Danny Russel (@dannyrrussel), Orville Schell (@orvilleschell), Jing Qian, and Lizzi C. Lee (@wstv_lizzi), the discussion brings together leading voices on U.S.–China relations from the Asia Society.

China’s President Xi appears to have has laid out a new strategic framework for the bilateral relationship. He calls it “constructive strategic stability”. Which sounds like a form of leader-led detente but still with deep red lines on Taiwan. On US @ABCNewsLive just now discussing this and other new directions discussed so far during the US-China summit in Beijing.

Initial thoughts on the U.S. readout of the Trump-Xi summit: -No mention of Taiwan -Xi's "opposition to the militarization of the Strait of Hormuz" (privately, Xi could place blame on the U.S. for "militarizing" the Strait) -Both countries "agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon." Beijing has never said this in public. Wonder if Beijing signed on to this framing.

Today is a big day for the world's two largest economies as Trump and Xi meet in Beijing. My comments on Fox News with @SandraSmithFox this morning.

On May 28, join @AsiaPolicy and the @KoreaFoundation for a public conference, ft. distinguished experts, assessing the state of the U.S.-ROK alliance in 2026, the prospects for cooperation, challenges in aligning national priorities, and the implications for the Indo-Pacific region moving forward. RSVP: asiasociety.org/policy-institu…