@LearningEleven Entero has 10% topline from innovator GLP. Generic GLP can reduce Entero's margins but increase topline. Management themselves are waiting to see the impact of generic GLP, right?
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Aswin
27 posts
Timepass talk on Sunday
1. Weight Loss, Price Crash – It’s raining hallelujah
The generics cycle for Semaglutide has now officially begun in India with the expiry of Novo Nordisk’s patent, and the impact is already dramatic. Natco Pharma has taken an aggressive first-mover position by launching its generic version at just ₹1,290–₹1,750 per month, a fraction of the earlier ₹10,000+ monthly cost for branded drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.
Glenmark has now upped the ante further. Its GLIPIQⓇ vials are priced at an expected weekly cost of just ₹325–₹440, translating to roughly ₹1,300–₹1,760 per month. This effectively places Glenmark right alongside Natco at the absolute bottom of the pricing curve, confirming that this is not going to be a staggered price correction, but a full-blown collapse.
This isn’t just incremental undercutting, this is a hard reset. With multiple players already clustering around ~₹1,300–₹3,000/month, and over 40 companies expected to enter, the market is rapidly transitioning from premium to commoditized.
The shift effectively moves GLP-1 therapies from a niche, affluent segment to a mass-market category in a country with one of the world’s largest diabetes and obesity populations.
For Novo Nordisk, this marks a direct erosion of its core semaglutide franchise, with pricing power likely to come under immediate pressure. Eli Lilly, while not directly exposed to semaglutide, is not entirely insulated, sharp price resets across the GLP-1 category could anchor patient and physician expectations lower, potentially slowing adoption and constraining pricing for its newer therapies like tirzepatide in price-sensitive markets. But of course, India market is a small one for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
Entero Healthcare could emerge as a key proxy for this theme, will be interesting to see how it plays out.
2. Belrise – A Transformation Hiding in Plain Sight
While Sansera Engineering has emerged as the latest poster child of a transformation story, commanding ~50x PE, Belrise is quietly carving out a similar niche for itself.
The narrative around its pivot from 2Ws to 4Ws and increasing ticket size is already well understood. However, its recent European acquisitions could prove to be the real inflection point in Belrise’s transformation journey:
Chester Hall Precision (UK) – Chester Hall specializes in machining complex aerostructures and engine components using advanced materials such as titanium and high-grade aluminum. Its clientele includes Airbus (A320 program), Collins Aerospace, and Safran, with a strong positioning as a single-source supplier across multiple programs.
Belrise acquired Chester Hall for ~₹140 crore, implying a valuation of ~6x EV/EBITDA on ~₹230 crore revenue. While the acquisition valuation appears attractive, that’s not the real story. The bigger takeaway is the immediate global footprint, along with critical certifications required to operate in the highly regulated aerospace ecosystem.
SAS Société Dupuis Mécanique (SDM) (France) – A couple of months earlier, Belrise acquired SDM through a French court-supervised liquidation for just ~₹3.1 crore. That’s virtually negligible for gaining access to high-precision aerospace machinery, a “ready-to-operate” setup that typically takes years to build, and—importantly—existing customer relationships.
If that wasn’t enough, the company also merged promoter entities at ~8.3x P/E (FY25), reflecting a clear intent to consolidate value at reasonable valuations.
Overall, this increasingly looks like a company that is not just executing a transformation, but doing so with strong capital allocation discipline and clear regard for minority shareholders.
I had briefly touched upon Belrise in the Dec 28th “Timepass Talk on a Sunday,” and @AlphaWealth000 presented it brilliantly at HIE on Jan 31st, 2026!
3. Laurus Labs - Plant visit
Multiple brokerages, including B&K Securities (360 One Capital), Motilal Oswal, and Axis Capital, have published their latest plant visit notes. Here’s a quick summary:
a) Investments in technologies like CGT, ADCs, Peptides, Enzymes, Precision Fermentation, Trickle Bed, Continuous Crystallization / Grignard / DP manufacturing, oral dissolvable films that will meaningfully contribute from FY28e.
b) Future growth drivers include CDMO projects in Human Health, Animal Health and Crop Science, and formulations segment including Krka JV. Ambition to take CDMO sales to 50% of total revenue by FY30.
c) Laurus is scaling up biologics and animal health/crop science with investments, backed by customer demand (e.g., advance-funded spray drying) and a modular expansion strategy, driving higher asset turns and adding new growth verticals beyond core APIs/CDMO.
d) Most CDMO R&D development is partner-funded, but Laurus invests in backward integration to strengthen its position, resulting in some upfront cost overruns which are strategic for long term.
While Axis Capital has not provided explicit estimates, Motilal Oswal pegs PAT at ~₹1,150 crore, and B&K is slightly higher at ~₹1,350 crore.
Personally, I believe most of these estimates are underappreciating the operating leverage likely to play out over FY27–FY28. But as always, time will be the ultimate judge.
4. FirstCry – The Tomato-to-Zomato moment?
FirstCry (Brainbees Solutions) continues to grapple with meaningful financial headwinds, remaining loss-making at the consolidated level. For the quarter ending December 2025, net losses widened sharply by 161% YoY to ₹38.4 crore, largely driven by its international expansion and the GlobalBees segment. Of course, PAT loss narrowed QoQ.
The lack of profitability, coupled with negative operating cash flows, has kept the stock in a persistent structural downtrend since its August 2024 IPO (₹465). Prior to the recent 19% rebound, the stock had corrected nearly 70% from its peak, bottoming around ₹200, reflecting growing investor discomfort with its rich valuation versus weak bottom-line delivery.
In response, the company is pivoting aggressively through its ‘Qwik’ delivery initiative to counter the rise of quick-commerce players. Currently live in select high-density pincodes across Bengaluru, Pune, and Hyderabad, Qwik leverages FirstCry’s network of 1,200+ physical stores as “dark stores” for fulfillment. While positioned as a sub-3-hour delivery service today, management aims to optimize this further toward a 2-hour window.
The next phase of expansion includes Delhi NCR, Ahmedabad, and Chennai, with a clear objective: shift consumer behavior from occasional discretionary purchases to high-frequency “necessity” buying—think diapers, baby food, and daily essentials.
To accelerate adoption, FirstCry has slashed the free delivery threshold to ₹199 for Qwik (vs. ₹699 for standard delivery). While this will inevitably pressure near-term margins, the company is attempting to offset costs by sweating its existing store network—avoiding the heavy capex typically associated with quick-commerce infrastructure.
Management is targeting ~60,000 Qwik orders in March 2026 alone, signaling early intent to scale this model meaningfully.
The big question remains: can FirstCry evolve from a “Tomato” into a “Zomato” moment and offer FirstSmile to it's investors, or will execution risks and unit economics keep it grounded?
5. Strait of Hormuz – The Middle East Connection
Until recently, most people couldn’t even spell the Strait of Hormuz, today, it sits at the center of global risk discussions. And for good (and bad) reason.
This narrow passage handles ~20% of global LNG, ~32% of LPG, and ~10% of seaborne crude oil trade, making it one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world.
For India, the dependence is even more pronounced: ~60% of LNG, ~90% of LPG, and ~54% of crude imports transit through Hormuz, effectively making it an energy lifeline. While alternate routes are being explored, the near-term impact remains significant.
The vulnerability extends beyond hydrocarbons. The Gulf accounts for ~45% of global sulphur exports, ~30–35% of methanol, and over 30% of urea trade, raising the risk of supply disruptions and second-order effects like food inflation.
And this isn’t a short-term issue. Restoring oil & gas infrastructure across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf nations could take months, if not years, prolonging the disruption.
The Result: INR under pressure, current account deficit potentially widening by ~1.5–2% of GDP, rising ATF prices, margin pressure on cement, slowdown in industrial activity, and feedstock constraints for chemical and fertilizer companies.
Collateral Damage: India’s ambitious capex push may face headwinds, particularly impacting B2G-linked sectors and companies.
Incidental Tailwinds: A renewed policy push toward EV adoption, BESS, LPG blending (DME), Grid Infrastructure, and Strategic Crude & Gas storage.
And if this isn’t enough, it’s still unclear how much of the near- and medium-term impact is already priced in. I believe a good chunk of both the damage and the recovery timeline is yet to be factored in.
At the same time, many Indian companies could play an important role in rebuilding infrastructure across the Gulf. But for now, it’s better to stay a bit conservative with Q4FY26 and FY27 earning estimates.
That's all for this edition. Have a great Sunday!
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@prudent_invstor Positive for garment manufacturers as they need lesser quantity of fabric for S/M size clothes but can sell it at the same price as L/XL/XXL. 😁
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The mad rush for weight loss begins soon. Major negative for restaurants and food-ordering apps, people who can afford them most easily are the ones who seek the cosmetic weight loss the most!
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The fertilizer segment of the company should continue to perform well in Q2 also.
fxtwitter.com/StocksAndStoic…
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After Q1 results, Shree Pushkar fell 16-17% the very next day.
During Q1 concall on the same day, someone pointed this out & the management confidently said the dip was a buying opportunity.😅
Looking at today's up-move with huge volumes, seems like management was not wrong 😅
Ankit@StocksAndStoics
Solid numbers from Shree Pushkar, as was expected, driven by 10% volume growth and a 22% increase in per-ton realizations in the Fertilizer segment The stock is already trading at a new ATH. (1/2)
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ugly but it works! I have a basic working amp with gain using op-amp.
whole session here (notice that for all the smartness it made a ridiculous blunder on bottom-left/top-left bit). amazed by how it helped me debug a plethora of issues
chatgpt.com/share/68b9e59f…
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@StocksAndStoics What's your view on China allowing the exports of fertilizers including DAP to India? Would it result in the reduction in subsidy for SSP and thus negative for SSP producers such as ShreePushkar?
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@Vinaash10 @grok is it correct that October delivery for crude by India has been shifted to non-Russian crude oil?
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@AugadhBhudeva Do not sensationalize it. October crude delivery of 5mn mt has been changed to nonrussian origin.
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Inside Trump-Modi’s 35-Minute Call That Shattered Years of US-India Friendship
A single phone call. Just 35 minutes long. That’s all it took for U.S.–India relations to shift from warm friendship to icy tension. Insiders say Donald Trump’s conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi after Operation Sindoor changed the tone forever. From refusing mediation with Pakistan to a 50% tariff blow, this is the untold story of how one moment altered the course of two global powers. Watch as we break down the Bloomberg revelations, the high-stakes diplomacy, and why the Trump–Modi call still sends ripples across Washington and New Delhi.
Credit : India Today Global.
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@deepakshenoy Indian doesn't have reserves of Heavy rare earths- Dysprosium (used in EV magnets), Terbium & Europium. Also, our resources are of poor grade and combined with radioactivity. So extraction is difficult.
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India has the world's third largest reserves of Rare Earth elements. We simply haven't invested in processing. We should; and the government needs a 20 year plan to have private industry build this, with grants or govt equity stake to push things forward.
And yes, we should even make the machines that process this stuff.
Diva Jain@DivaJain2
China is the enemy, Pakistan is a sideshow.
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‘someday’ by the strokes. a fav since it came out and remains so after 20+ yrs
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@AmannaPrerana If they're very unhealthy then it would've been okay. Everyone has free will and these are life's little joys.
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Some times we need to be really harsh with our parents to get them to do the right things.
It’s very hard to do so.
One being, culturally we are not taught to argue with our parents.
We put them in the same category as God.
Thou holy. But at times it’s necessary to fight with them especially when they act like kids.
My mom went to Mangalore recently.
She came back with all sorts of snacks and sweets.
At first, she told it was for her colleagues .
Only part of it was distributed to her colleagues. The rest was at home.
Every day she comes back home and snacks.
She binges on this and there is no appetite left for dinner.
I waited for 3 days, when I saw the behaviour didn’t change, I took measures to my own hand.
Before she came home today, I threw all the snacks in the bin.
Voila! Out of sight, Out of mind and Out of mouth.
She was angry and fought with me.
I refused to argue and fall into her frame.
I was stern and told her if you’re going to live with me, this is how it is going to be.
Sometimes that’s the only way to get your parents on track.
Harsh, brutal and stern.
Just like how they would be when we did mistakes as kids.
Now the roles have reversed.
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playing knopfler style finger picked lead for brothers in arms. it’s a new style to me. (please ignore son’s clackity-clack of the keyboard)
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Here are my posts related to buying of
1. Apollo Pipes
fxtwitter.com/StocksAndStoic…
2. India Pesticides
fxtwitter.com/StocksAndStoic…
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probably the last 10k for the year. forced myself to run slow and never went into zone 5 and only 15% in zone 4. finished with heart rate around 145 which is a first for me. this felt like guitar finger exercises - slow and to the metronome so you can play fast
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Market barely 5% down from ATH is not an oportunity to invest for longterm
Buy the Panic & hopeless situation when it arises to invest for long term
What Indicator we are looking at for buying longterm , folks?
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Major life update friends :)
Seeking everyone's blessings for the baby
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brave enough to try jimi hendrix’s “little wing”. not great but this isn’t a simple song and has a lot of technique to it which I always felt was beyond me. can only get better from here
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my take (I feel as you improve at playing guitar, it’s like you are improving the colour palette on which you render the same image. It sounds the same but feels like it’s missing something)
bharani manoharan@phreakv6
much as i like the later mainstream songs, peter green's fleetwood mac had so much soul youtube.com/watch?v=CNrRk-…
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Decent umpire at our local cricket league game this morning in New York.
No, he did not give bad LBW calls
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