auroch

@ZacGoldsmith The sad thing here is that @ZacGoldsmith is probably intelligent enough that he understands full well that the two positions are not mutually exclusive. Which moves us to the next question: why, then, is ZG adopting this posture? Answer: purely cynical grifting.

What a difference two years makes #charlatan

@AaronBastani "I agree that XYZ would be nice, but your proposed method will not achieve XYZ (and will actually make things worse)" is too complicated a thought for many current political commentators.

Zero outcomes in West Asia, since Sykes-Picot in 1916, point in this direction. Efforts to force this either fail, or when regional actors try we remove them (Mossadegh, Afghan communists on women’s rights). Our societies mass produce adult children on this stuff.

@NicholasTyrone I would love it if Iran became a liberal democracy. I don't think that the USA bombing Iran will lead to Iran becoming a liberal democracy. (And will have numerous bad side effects instead. See: history.) Do you really, honestly, not understand that this is the argument?

If Iran became a liberal democracy, with rights for women, gay people, and other groups that are currently oppressed in Iran, a large chunk of the western progressives would hate it, which is deeply perverse.

@marcusveniquis @DespoticInroad @Stsantek No. Just no. The world is not that simple. Pragmatism surely involves recognising complexity. For instance: "action X seems on the face of it to have some points in favour of it, but if I actually do X, myriad bad consequences are very likely to follow".

@DespoticInroad @Stsantek Except leaving the mad mullah in power is not acceptable either. Which is where some elements of the left fall over. In pragmatism if you dont support X you do actually defacto support Y.

Feel like I’m living on a different universe to some people. The myopia/historical amnesia is incredible to witness. We watched this kind of triumphalism when Saddam fell — crowds hitting the statue & “mission accomplished”. What followed?: 👉Years of sectarian bloodshed 👉100,000s deaths 👉The destabilisation of a volatile region, inc. the rise of ISIS 👉The STRENGTHENING of, errrrr, the IRANIAN regime with the addition of new Iraqi members to the Shia crescent/“Axis of Resistance” (& let’s not even mention Libya.) My tolerance for the British Right has grown in recent years as the Left has driven itself mad on all kinds of issues. But nothing triggers the old Comrade in me like this kind of dangerous neocon adventurism. Geopolitics isn’t a Marvel comic where the goodies take out the baddies with the explosions and then something something happily ever after.

@SamCoatesSky @SkyNews It's not good analysis, it's extremely poor analysis (e.g. completely inadequate grasp of how to think about complex counterfactuals re: Burnham) but it's written in that "now a grown-up centrist is speaking" argot that journalists seem congenitally incapable of resisting.

This from Labour’s Tom Watson about Gorton and Denton is a considered analysis of what did - and didn’t - go wrong from a Labour pov I’m grateful he was watching our @skynews coverage. He rightly and fairly fact checks some of the Labour analysis of what went wrong: I was never sure what we were hearing from Labour sources was level-headed analysis, as opposed to a more self serving blame game initiated by those backing candidates to take over from Keir Starmer? Hopefully I conveyed that. I’m less grateful to Tom for recalling the events of Glastonbury 2008. Again. open.substack.com/pub/tomwatsono…

@mayerandrew "incapable of considering hard choices in matters of war and peace" is so hilarious here, because "the huge military power my country is allied with should go and bomb the bad people, and then things will be good" is the absolute easiest, most analysis-free position.

@mayerandrew The fact that anybody who was a vaguely sentient adult in 2001 and 2003 could still be going down this cognitive garden path is wild. "Maybe a powerful country unilaterally bombing the shit out of this won't magically make things better" =/= "I'm defending this abhorrent regime"

It should I think concern us that the leading candidate party for the future of the UK left is incapable of considering hard choices in matters of war and peace. To be so pathologically anti-American and anti-Israel that you are prepared to defend the persistence of an authoritarian murderous regime is infantile moral cowardice. It is reasonable for a insticitvely pacifist party to have concerns about war aims and the credibility of the current action in achieving those aims. But that is not the stance being taken. It is instead to smear the motives of allied democracies and worse denigrate them as inferior to those of the genocidal regime they seek to end. That is vile and ignorant. It is self-evidently true that the peoples of the Middle East, and Iran in particular, would be better off if the Shia Islamist regime of the Ayatollahs were replaced with liberal democracy. It should be obvious, even to Polanski that this transition is not just going to happen through vibes and good wishes. A regime prepared to murder thousands to retain power will not surrender it lightly and has persistently resisted change. Which is a nice way of saying that they shoot protesters, generally in the face, and if that fails to kill them, they go to the hospital to finish the job. The Greens typically have fainting fits about civil liberties when the Police unglue a climate protestor from a road. Yet this is ok with them? What's his plan to end that behaviour? Or does whipping up sectarianism to win by-elections matter more to Polanski than the lives of Iranians and future peace?

@Gargant34515 @EspressoLucid @AaronBastani That is: Setting aside rights and wrongs, and talking purely analytically: the question about "ethnic tribalism" boils down to whether ethnicity is causally primary, vs. a situation where "normal" voter interests are causally primary, and the outcome of that tracks ethnicity.

@Gargant34515 @EspressoLucid @AaronBastani Well... 1. I agree very starkly divided ethnic bloc votes would be bad 2. my only point above was just to disagree with this narrative that the by-election result was "ethnic tribalism" but 3. I'm not sure the opposed interest-cum-ethnic blocs are as clear-cut as you think.

An important point for right wingers presently undergoing generational head-loss over the Green victory in Gorton and Denton. For Keir Starmer too. Plenty of people would like to see the Greens have more MPs. They want PR, care about conservation, want closer ties with Europe - whatever. They think 40 Green MPs would be great! But very few of these people presently think Polanski is going to be the next PM. Hence the lines used against Corbyn are failing - very badly - against Polanski and his party. It’s easy to make politics existential when someone might actually be PM, like Corbyn. That was a real possibility! Which raises the stakes. A single policy will put you off someone. But that’s not true with the Greens. And won’t be for a few election cycles. So comparing a by-election win, and a 5th MP, to the 1979 Islamic Revolution looks, well, mad. It’s objectively insane and detached from reality. I suspect this is mostly muscle memory from people - in politics and the media - who responded in the same way to Corbyn as Labour leader when the dynamic, and stakes, were very different.

@Gargant34515 @EspressoLucid @AaronBastani that's different to "ethnic tribalism". That would indicate that voters are simply delivered as a largely unthinking "bloc" *for the sole reason of loyalty to an ethnic leader*, rather than anything explicable in terms of rational interests, preferences, values, etc.

@Gargant34515 @EspressoLucid @AaronBastani But then what you're describing is a normal feature of democracies: identifiable interest-groups -- renters, retirees, farmers, etc. With immigration policy, for obvious reasons, interests track ethnic demographics to a significant (although far from complete) degree. But:

@EspressoLucid @AaronBastani Political Party A: "We don't really like Ethnicity X and so have policies that directly go against most of their interests" Ethnicity X: <tends not to vote for Political Party A> Very Clever People: "omg ethnic tribal voting!!!"

@AaronBastani So you're just going to ignore the ethnic tribal voting then. Not surprised.

@PolitlcsUK Tragic levels of cope here. "We have to learn lessons from [losing the election]." The lessons: "The voters got it wrong and it is a total mystery why they voted Green. Anyway, let's not think about that any further."

🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer has written to all Labour MPs to explain why Labour lost the Gorton and Denton by-election Dear Colleagues, The result in Gorton and Denton is deeply disappointing. Instead of a Labour MP who can be a local champion delivering for Gorton and Denton alongside a Labour Government and a Labour mayor, the people of Gorton and Denton now have a representative who is more interested in dividing people than uniting them. We have to learn lessons from that, and we will. I know this is a tough result for our movement but I still want to thank you for everything you did to support our brilliant candidate Angeliki Stogia. She did a fantastic job and Gorton and Denton deserved to have her as their MP. We’ve seen the true colours of Zack Polanski’s Greens in this campaign. The Greens were able to capitalise on an endorsement from George Galloway to win over enough voters to push them over the line. Their willingness to welcome Galloway's divisive, sectarian politics is a sign that the Greens are not the harmless environmentalists they pretend to be, and their position on legalising all drugs shows how unstable this electoral coalition is. It cannot survive a general election campaign. It hurts, but this is the kind of result that we have often seen parties of government face. In by-elections people can make their voice heard without risking a change of government. I get it: people are rightly impatient to see the change they voted for. It’s my job to make sure that happens. And I’m working day in, day out to see it through. Over the coming months, people will feel the benefit of the long-term decisions this government is taking. Look at the good economic news we’ve had in the past week: inflation and borrowing coming down, retail sales and business confidence rising, energy bills falling. And look at the policies that are going to make a difference in people’s lives in the coming months: the landmark Employment Rights Act, money off energy bills, the cruel two-child limit scrapped, more free breakfast clubs opening, Pride in Place funding coming through, NHS waiting lists continuing to fall. It will show what we’ve been saying from the outset of this year: the country is turning a corner. These are all Labour policies, putting Labour values into action - policies no other party would or could deliver. The Greens may have won here, but they simply do not have the resources, the activist base or the local knowledge to replicate this victory across the country. We’ve seen that before. We’ve seen it with the Lib Dems, who have often won mid-term by-elections against both the Conservatives and Labour, but never been able to come close to winning nationally. We’ve seen it with George Galloway, who won two mid-term by elections but held neither of those seats in a general election. We will continue to warn of the risk the Greens pose: the risk of extreme policies like legalising all drugs and pulling out of NATO that most voters strongly reject, and the risk of splitting the progressive vote so that Reform come through the middle. The next election is too important to let that happen. It’s a fight we can win, and we’re going to win it. Best, Keir

@realzoestrimpel Water is wet. But when it's frozen it won't immediately make you wet. Grass is green. But in some particularly hot summers it can be yellow. Anti-black racism is abhorrent. But that shouldn't be used to silence valid discussion of activist excesses. Etc etc

‘But’

@DrewPavlou @GoodwinMJ Unless your theory is that there are large numbers of 1st/2nd gen South Asian migrant women in this constituency thinking gee, I'd just love to vote for the "we don't like migrants and Muslims" party if only my husband wasn't influencing me - ?

@DrewPavlou @GoodwinMJ "Totally rigged" - stupid claim. Even if these alleged instances of "family voting" hadn't happened those votes just turn into either no vote, or vote for other non-Reform party. Similarly, even if the Greens hadn't stood at all, those votes just go Labour, to block Reform.

Statement: “We are losing our country. A dangerous Muslim sectarianism has emerged. We have only one general election left to save Britain. Vote Reform every chance you get. I will continue the fight. I will always fight for you. I will stand at the next general election. Matt.”

@fitzmagoodness @AyoCaesar If I have red hair and the "We Dont Like Gingers" party stands for election in my constituency it's not exactly some kind of "block vote" conspiracy if i think "yeah I'll probably not vote for these lads" is it

@AyoCaesar stop the denial ... stop the lies .. it's the muslim block vote Paddy Power knew it - william Hill knew it all the media jokers are in denial

Been saying this since 2024 – the top 40 seats in which the Greens came second are most urban, multi-ethnic working class, with a decent chunk of downwardly mobile graduates thrown in. With Labour pitching rightwards, there was an open goal for a party going big on housing, cost of living, inequality, and foreign policy.

@KingsGambit_ @humng392546 @LeoKearse Yes: labour and greens have a fairly cross-ethnic coalition, whereas ethnic minority voters show little support for the party/candidate known (fairly or unfairly) to be hostile to migrants and minorities. Not exactly a surprise, nor an indication of non-policy-based voting.

@humng392546 @LeoKearse Do you actually know how to read a graph?

The by-election in Gorton and Denton shows that democracy can't survive in a multicultural country. It just becomes a demographic head count. People no longer vote according to values or policy, they vote according to tribal loyalties and concerns. As the non-native population grows it will vote for redistribution of wealth from the native population, assisted by leftists who ally with them against their common enemies of "capitalism", "the nation state" and "attractive, successful people". This is already happening - look at the Green Party. Why did you think the left brought these people in? Unless British people realise what's happening and deal with it (unlikely because it would mean rejecting the national religion of multiculturalism, saying no to women and being a bit mean to people who hate us), the best we can hope for is South Africanisation; a dwindling productive population squeezed by an increasingly bitter and entitled majority. Worst case scenario: Lebanon.

@Ruben_Amorim20 @ChinoUTD Yes 👍

@auroch______ @ChinoUTD Lot of professional midfielders can ping ball into spaces But this passes ain’t dangerous The most difficult and dangerous passes in football are the less attractive ones that set up ur team for XG The de bruyne,Bruno,ozil,yamal type of passes

🚨 Pep Guardiola “Scholes was the midfielder midfielders feared. We joked at Barca he could hit a head from 60 yards. If he came through La Masia, we’d rename it after him. Some talents are so rare… you don’t coach them. You pray you face them less.”