
AYDA
394 posts

AYDA
@ayda_kaff
یاد گرفتم همه را نگه ندارم همه را توضیح ندهم و همه را نجات ندهم






Whether or not Europe stands with us, whether or not your journalists do their jobs, whether or not your politicians demonstrate the courage to act, I will fight for my people and my country.









"Do you have any estimates on Iran's oil in storage; onshore, floating, and pre-positioned for China?" 1/4 Onshore: Iran's own terminal operator, IOTCO, puts total onshore capacity at ~38–42M bbl system-wide. Kharg Island, the dominant export hub, accounts for ~30–31M bbl of that. At blockade day (Apr 13), Kharg had roughly 13M bbl of spare capacity left. At a net inflow of ~1.0–1.1M bpd (production minus domestic refinery intake which has apparently lowered following the strikes), that's a ~13-day runway. The only thing that extends that clock is floating storage, and here are my estimated numbers. 👇





۰۰:۱۲/ ۱۷ فروردین یک پروتکل جدید از سوی ایران در تنگه هرمز نهایی و برای اجرا به نیروی دریایی سپاه ابلاغ شده است. این پروتکل جدید بر این فرض بنا شده که اولا دشمنان ایران حق استفاده از تنگه را ندارند و ثانیا ایران باید همه خسارت هایی را که خورده از تنگه تامین و جبران کند.


If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras. 1991-2026: the unipolar era 1974-2026: the petrodollar era 1945-2026: the postwar era 1776-2026: the union era 1492-2026: the Western era Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991) and the postwar order (1945). It would mark the moment when Eurasian powers were once again dominant over Western powers (1492). Finally, a rapid crash in the dollar's purchasing power coupled with military defeat could well break apart the American union (1776). Few seem to viscerally understand just how dependent America is on money printing. But the end of the petrodollar is the end of Keynesianism as we know it. And if there's a sudden cost-of-living spike on top of pre-existing levels of political polarization, which are already near Civil War levels...we could see the scenarios that Dalio, the Fourth Turning, and Turchin have described.


















