murat leo babur

Fed holds rates at 3.5 to 3.75 Economy steady but inflation still elevated Uncertainty rising with global risks This is neutral to slightly hawkish Stocks short term relief but capped upside Crypto liquidity stays tight no easy breakout Dollar remains firm Market wants cuts Fed is not ready Bias cautious not bullish #FOMC #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Macro #StockMarket #Crypto #Bitcoin #Liquidity #Markets #Trading #Investing #Economy

People keep saying, “Bitcoin dropped 50% because of Trump.” That’s too shallow. But pretending this administration didn’t inject volatility into the system? That is delusion. Early 2025 was pure euphoria. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. “Never sell your Bitcoin.” Bitcoin conference speeches. The market believed we were about to get a pro-Bitcoin treasury shift. So it front-ran it. Hard. $120K hard. Then reality walked in. Supreme Court limits tariff authority. Administration pivots and escalates anyway. Trade war headlines everywhere. Inflation pressure is building. Fed goes higher-for-longer. Dollar rips. You cannot be the “Crypto President” and the “Tariff President” at the same time without consequences. Bitcoin trades liquidity. Liquidity tightened. Add in the optics of Trump-branded tokens, lawsuits, retail losses, political backlash… and the vibe changed fast. The Strategic Reserve exists. Yes. But it’s retained seized BTC. Not an aggressive buying program. That difference matters. So what really happened? The market bought the dream. Then it priced the friction. This wasn’t “Bitcoin failed.” It was leverage unwinding in a world where expectations outran delivery. From $120K euphoria to $60K reset. Not ideology. Not hate. Just risk premium expanding when policy gets loud. Markets don’t care about slogans. They care about liquidity. #Bitcoin #Macro #Liquidity #Fed #RiskPremium #Trump

@MrWhale Stagflation requires persistent inflation + sustained contraction. Watch: • Dollar • 10Y yields • Credit spreads

🚨 MAJOR WARNING: STAGFLATION RISK IS SURGING New data just hit and the signals are flashing red. 🇺🇸 FED JUST RELEASED CORE PPI DATA HOTTER THAN EXPECTED: ACTUAL: 3.6% EXPECTED: 3.0% 📊 PRODUCER INFLATION IS RE-ACCELERATING. Upstream price pressure is building again and that raises the risk of stickier consumer inflation ahead. 📉 Q4 GDP PRINTED JUST 1.4%, ONE OF THE WEAKEST READINGS IN RECENT QUARTERS. Inflation rising. Growth slowing. THAT’S THE TEXTBOOK DEFINITION OF STAGFLATION. And here’s the policy trap: • CUT RATES? INFLATION COULD SURGE AGAIN. • STAY HAWKISH? GROWTH COULD DETERIORATE FURTHER. THE FED IS CORNERED. And yes, THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR CRYPTO. Hot inflation → Higher for longer rates → Stronger dollar → Liquidity tightens. Risk assets don’t thrive in tightening cycles. The next CPI, Core PCE, and labor data will determine whether this is temporary… OR THE START OF A MUCH ROUGHER MACRO PHASE.

@LarkDavis Bond market reaction will tell the real story.

𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: PPI rises 0.5% in January, exceeding expectations 📈 Wholesale prices climbed more than forecast last month, driven mainly by a surge in trade service margins and transportation costs, while energy and food prices fell. The underlying core measure rose a more modest 0.3%, in line with estimates. The data suggests inflation remains sticky. Bummer

@cryptorover If growth weakens faster than inflation rises, liquidity shifts fast.

🚨 BIG WARNING: US ECONOMY IS HEADING TOWARDS STAGFLATION Just now, US PPI and Core PPI data was released. US PPI came in at 2.9% vs. 2.6% expected. US Core PPI came in at 3.6%, its highest level in 11 months. This is a clear sign that US inflation is heating up again. But what about GDP? Well, US Q4 GDP came in at 1.4%, its worst print in 3 quarters. This means the economy is shrinking while inflation is heating up. That's what stagflation is, and it's the worst possible thing for an economy. During such periods, easing monetary policy boosts GDP but makes the inflation situation worse. The tightening policy brings inflation lower, but GDP gets even worse. This means the Fed is completely trapped now, and nothing good will happen without breaking the economy first.

@CoinMarketCap That is constructive. Distribution away from concentrated whales → broader base of conviction holders. Less reflexive dumping. More structural support. When a large supply fragments without price collapsing, that’s absorption, not weakness.

LATEST: 📊 Bitcoin wallets holding at least 100 BTC are nearing 20,000, a sign of broader holder distribution and reduced whale concentration after months of selling pressure, according to Santiment.

@coinbureau Psychology drives the short term. Structure drives the cycle. If selling pressure is exhaustion, you’ll see it in OI, funding, and spot absorption. We’re already seeing parts of that reset. The next move won’t come from headlines. It’ll come from liquidity shifting.

🚨BITWISE CIO: THIS IS NOT A BITCOIN CRASH Matt Hougan says Bitcoin’s drop is driven by psychology, not fundamentals, calling it a self-fulfilling four-year cycle. He sees selling pressure near exhaustion, with $75K to $100K next and new ATHs later in 2026.

@SolLunix Fastest to $1T and still the most debated.

Bitcoin is the fastest asset in history to hit a $1 trillion market cap

@benjamincowen @GibCryptoNews Bottoms aren’t found by prediction. They’re found by positioning. When leverage resets, OI compresses, and sentiment flips defensive, that is when probability shifts. Price can go lower. But structure is already changing.

Check out my recent interview with @GibCryptoNews where we talk about Bitcoin. We discuss how low it could go later this year, when it might bottom, and more! youtube.com/watch?v=zR1mwq…

@JamesEastonUK Nature is resetting volatility. When OI nukes, and price does not collapse with it, that’s constructive. Leverage leaves. Spot remains. That’s how bases form.

$BTC 🟠 Futures Open Interest has NUKED. Nature is healing.

@Cointelegraph Time is Bitcoin’s ally.

🔥 HISTORY: Hal Finney in 2011, “Every day Bitcoin doesn’t collapse due to legal or technical problems increases the chance of success and justifies a higher price.” Does that logic still apply today?

@cryptorover Below 65K opens downside acceleration. Above 68–70K flips dealer positioning. This range is a coil.

What is next for Bitcoin? $50,000 or $80,000?

@Darky1k “Dumping hard” in a 3–4% move inside a compression range? This is positioning unwind, not structural breakdown. Funding flat. OI resetting. That is cleansing, not collapse.

Bitcoin and Ethereum dumping hard again Exit pumps along the way

@PeterSchiff Gold protects wealth. Bitcoin compounds it. One is static scarcity. The other is programmable scarcity + global settlement.

Gold is already up another $50 this morning, trading above $5,230. Silver is up $4, trading above $92. Don't wait for precious metals to make new ATHs. Buy some today. If you own Bitcoin, don't wait for the next crash. Sell now and buy gold or silver. schiffgold.com

Walls only matter if buyers are exhausted. In past bears we had vertical blow-offs and 50% funding spikes. This time we have muted leverage and compressed OI. 140 days into “bear” but without a classic euphoric top. If 68K stays resistance, fine. If it flips, this whole 200W narrative fades fast. Levels are technical. Regimes are structural. I’m watching regime.

$BTC ran into a wall again. After tagging ~$70K, price failed to reclaim the 200-week EMA and prior cycle highs, with $68K now acting as resistance instead of support. We’re ~140 days into this bear phase. Historically, the shortest lasted ~365 days, and past drawdowns reached ~80%. Is this a relief rally within a broader downtrend or the base-building before structure flips?

Same price. Different cycle psychology. 2021 was expansion. Liquidity accelerating. Leverage euphoric. 2026 is digestion. Funding muted. Skepticism everywhere. When price is the same, but positioning is lighter, that’s not the weakness. That is reset. Cycles don’t die from boredom. They reset from excess.

April 2021 vs February 2026 Similar prices, completely different sentiments. April 2021 • $BTC → $64,000 • $ETH → $1,900 February 2026 • $BTC → $66,000 • $ETH → $1,900 If you look closer, the difference is like night and day. Back in 2021, $66K BTC felt extremely bullish. Now in 2026, $66K feels like consolidation and the sentiment is bearish. $1,900 ETH in 2021 had us thinking we were pre rich. Today, it feels like the ETH is weakening and probably going much lower. Returning to the same price after five years isn't the same. It raises one key question: Are we building for the next leg up, or is the cycle losing its strength?

@Nebraskangooner This is compression. Low funding. Negative basis. Tight range. Markets are boring right before they get expensive.

#Bitcoin Completely pointless price action.

@DonWedge Alts outperform when BTC stabilizes

Altcoins will outperform BTC/ETH/SOL ETH and SOL will give great returns but altcoins will give much better returns

@KillaXBT If dominance stalls, BTC breathes. If dominance expands, BTC compresses. It’s whether liquidity expands or contracts from here.

$BTC I believe this is the most important chart we need to be paying attention to right now. USDT.D had the scam wick (the 59K BTC wick). It then moved up and retested the prior range highs on the left and rejected. Now it’s showing signs of accepting back below, a textbook retest and acceptance back into the range. As of now, as long as this retest holds, we are theoretically showing acceptance back into the range. What does this mean for BTC? If USDT.D holds this retest and continues accepting back into the range, we can target the grey box, which is what I’ve primarily been focused on on the HTF. I don’t think we will test 6.67%, that seems quite unlikely given the strong bearish trend, but a test of the grey box is definitely plausible after this move down for BTC. We’ve had 5 consecutive red months, and even the smallest retest would help rebalance the market. Either way, if we break above the previous high, BTC likely breaks down to 50K. In that scenario, we would only get the bearish retest after sweeping the current ATH on USDT.D, which would be quite surprising without first getting a meaningful bearish retest.

@Bitcoin When BTC is priced in hard assets instead of fiat, it highlights something important: Gold and silver preserve purchasing power. Bitcoin compresses time.

Current price of #Bitcoin, measured in #Silver $BTC / $XAG: 🥈 724.106 oz