
U Kan All Dope
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Heard a leak from one of the frontier labs (not oai tbh), they reached an unexpected HUGE wall of diminishing returns trying to brute-force better results by training longer & using more and more data.. (more severe than what is published publicly)

The contrast between the breaking news from at least two “frontier” labs and the hype and bravado that we have seen over the last two years from @sama and @elonMusk and others is simply breathtaking. 𝘼𝙂𝙄 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙗𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖𝙣𝙮𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙨𝙤𝙤𝙣.




Elon Musk: We're sending Starship to Mars in roughly 2 years! 🚀


Navigating by myself

Punting predictions for humans to Mars decades into the future is, in my view, largely political and not based on science and engineering. If humans make in in the next 10 years, which is reasonably likely, it has to be SpaceX doing it. No other game in town - maybe the Chinese with a crash program but they don't seem to have the intent to do anything like that. To some this is politically unacceptable. Musk cannot be allowed to win. By predicting absurdly long timetables, they hope to make it true. They want to give NASA and the broader public sector time to take control of the process and lead the mission, so that Mars is run by a bureaucracy that is broadly on their side - rather than some anarchic frontier where tech bros can build stuff without someone around to tie them up with regulations.




